Likely 2024 Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire prefer Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to former President Donald Trump, a University of New Hampshire poll found.

DeSantis led the poll results with 39 percent of the vote, followed by Trump with 37 percent. The two-point gap separating them is within the margin of error. Vice President Mike Pence came in third with nine percent, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at six percent. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) each polled at one percent.

Trump dominated a similar poll conducted in Oct. 2021, winning 43 percent of the vote while DeSantis received just 18 percent.

In a Twitter thread responding to the poll, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat broke the 2024 primary electorate into three camps. First, the “ideological, high-information conservative voter[s]” who supported Cruz in the 2016 presidential primary. Second, the “disaffected/populist vote[rs],” who backed Trump in 2016. Third, “the establishment bloc,” which went for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R).

Douthat predicted that, in a contested primary, DeSantis would win the first group, Trump would win the second, and the third would split their vote between Pence and Haley. DeSantis would win, Douthat wrote, “if the [establishment] bloc backs him and he cuts into the more disaffected/populist vote.

The poll surveyed 318 likely GOP primary voters between June 16 and June 20 and has an error margin of 5.5 percent.