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Texas state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas, has widened his lead over his Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in a new poll.
The results of the Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey, which were shared by The Texas Tribune on Tuesday, found Talarico had a 5 percentage-point advantage among likely voters over Paxton ahead of the November election.
Forty-five percent of respondents in this poll backed the Democratic candidate, compared to 40 percent who supported the Republican in this race. Neither candidate has broken the 50 percent mark in polling since they both won their respective primary elections earlier this year.
The TPOR survey found that Talarico leads Paxton among voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republican candidates. Of the poll’s respondents, 53 percent voted for President Trump and 42 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
A previous poll conducted by this nonpartisan public opinion research center after Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the Republican runoff found Talarico beating the attorney general 47 percent to 44 percent.
Additionally, a New York Times/Siena poll from June found the two candidates tied at 47 percent among likely Texas voters, nearly along party lines.
The Texas Senate race has shaped up as one of the most closely-watched and expensive midterm races in the country. In the second fundraising quarter, Talarico’s campaign reported raising $28 million, while Paxton’s campaign reported $1.6 million.
Democratic strategists have expressed optimism about Talarico’s chances in the general election after Cornyn’s defeat in May.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted theirprediction in the November race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” after the GOP runoff. A Democrat has not represented Texas in the Senate since former Sen. Bob Kreuger in 1993.
The TPOR surveyed a total of 1,048 likely voters from July 15 and July 17 with a margin of error of approximately 3.4 percentage points.
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