Florida is facing its most intense drought in 15 years. Here's how it got so bad and how long it will last.

Aerial images of the parched Everglades in March 2026.

The current drought in Florida has parched even the Everglades (pictured from above) and nearby reserves. (Image credit: Carl Juste/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

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Florida is experiencing its most intense drought in 15 years, with more than 70% of the Sunshine State facing what the U.S. Drought Monitor calls "extreme" to "exceptional" drought conditions.

Northern Florida is suffering the driest conditions in the state, and recent rainfall has brought almost no relief, according to the latest drought data. Forecasts show no rain and high temperatures over the next week, so the situation will likely get worse before it gets better, experts told Live Science.

Map of the U.S. Southeast showing the severity of drought in different areas.

More than 70% of Florida is facing "extreme" or "exceptional" drought conditions. In Georgia, which has also been gripped by drought, that figure is 69%. (Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor/Brian Fuchs)

Why is Florida in a drought?

Florida, along with Georgia and other parts of the U.S. Southeast, currently sits beneath a ridge of high atmospheric pressure that has moved in and out of the region since fall last year but remained stationary since March. This means the air above the Southeast is sinking and compressing, which reduces humidity and prevents cloud formation.

"Rain cannot form in sinking air so it just stays warm and dry," Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia and the director of the Georgia Weather Network, told Live Science in an email.

Clear skies have dominated for weeks over Florida and other parts of the Southeast. But it's not just high pressure that's driving the current drought, because rainfall has been below average for months. Florida was unusually dry for much of last year, and many areas have received less than 50% of their normal rainfall since Sept. 1, 2025, according to the National Weather Service.

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"That means they are about 20 to 25 inches [50 to 65 centimeters] below what would be considered average rainfall," Knox said.

Months of dry weather were followed by a La Niña winter, which shifted the jet stream northward. This brought colder, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and Canada, while the southern U.S. became warmer and drier.

"The combined effects of the lack of tropical storms last year with the La Nina over the winter, which is usually a time of warmer and drier climate than average, have helped lead to this current situation," Knox said.

Why is the current Florida drought so bad?

The current drought in Florida differs from previous bad droughts because it has hit in spring instead of summer. The last time the U.S. Drought Monitor recorded such exceptionally dry conditions in the Sunshine State was June 2011, but it has not been this dry so early in the year since 2000, Knox said.

While the La Niña, low precipitation, and fewer storms this season are attributable to natural variability, global warming and shifts in the water cycle caused by higher temperatures may be contributing to the dryness, Knox said.

The impact of climate change is difficult to disentangle from natural variation without proper attribution studies, Mullens agreed.

A timeseries showing the worst droughts in Florida since 2000.

The current drought in Florida is similar in intensity to a drought that gripped the state in 2011 to 2012, experts said. Other severe droughts were the 2000 to 2001 drought and the 2007 to 2008 drought. (Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin)

How long will the Florida drought last?

Current drought conditions in Florida will probably worsen until the end of April, but they are expected to improve slightly in May as the high-pressure area in the atmosphere moves away from the Southeast.

"In the Southeast, the worst drought is in northern Florida and southern Georgia, but other areas are likely to get worse over the next couple of weeks with high temperatures and no rain in the forecast," Knox said. "We expect the weather pattern to change around the end of the month as the high pressure shrinks off to the east, which will allow cold fronts that could produce rain to enter the Southeast again."

It's unclear how conditions will evolve through summer, but a lot of moisture will be needed to end the drought. Ideally, a tropical storm or a stationary front should bring enough rain in the coming weeks to quench plants and replenish soil moisture.

"It is difficult to get out of drought in summer because the plants and evaporation tend to use every bit of rain that falls," Knox said.

A strong El Niño is on the horizon, which could bring wetter weather this summer, Mullens said. But a clear picture of this year's drought will emerge only once it's over, when scientists will be able to more accurately compare its length with droughts that struck Florida in 2000 and 2011.

What are the impacts?

Satellite data shows that shallow groundwater aquifers have dried up across the U.S. Southeast during this year's drought. That's because more water has been extracted from these aquifers than usual to irrigate farmland and provide drinking water for people under exceptionally dry conditions.

In Florida, aquifers are especially dry in the northern and central regions. Aquifers do not immediately recover from drought, because rainfall first has to wet the entire soil column before it can trickle down to replenish groundwater stores.

"Aquifers are considered to be a lagging indicator of drought because they get worse after the drought is bad at the surface and it takes them longer to recover," Knox said.

Map showing groundwater wetness in the U.S. Southeast. More regions are red, meaning they have less water in shallow aquifers than they had on average between 1948 and 2010.

This map of the U.S. Southeast shows the amount of groundwater in shallow aquifers now compared with the long-term average between 1948 and 2010. Blue pixels represent areas where there is more groundwater than usual, while orange and red pixels show regions where there is less water than usual. (Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin)

The drought has been felt across Florida, with some water districts imposing restrictions on water use for certain activities such as lawn irrigation. Dry vegetation has also provided ample fuel for wildfires, including a blaze in February in Big Cypress National Preserve, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Naples. And even the Everglades are facing unusually dry conditions, news reports show.

If the drought lasts much longer, there will be more wildfires and possibly even water shortages, Knox said.

It might take several weeks of consistent rain or a tropical storm lasting multiple days to recover from this drought. Ideally, precipitation should be abundant but not come all at once; soils have limits on how much water they can absorb, and the surplus would likely run off, Knox said.