To me, Monday's New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays AL Division Series Game 2 is what the MLB playoffs are all about: Two huge rivals sending out excellent pitchers for what should be some low-scoring, station-to-station postseason baseball. Presumed AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler is scheduled to start for the Yankees, while big trade acquisition Freddy Peralta gets the call for the hosts as they look for a 2-0 series lead before it shifts to the Bronx. The Yankees are -125 road favorites on the money line at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the run total is set at 6.5. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
It's an 8 p.m. ET scheduled start at Tropicana Field, which is likely to be about half filled with Yankees fans. Obviously there's no weather concerns in that awful dome. At -130 on DraftKings, New York is taking 84% of handle and 78% of bets while also taking similar at -1.5. On the total of 6.5, 70% of money and 56% of wagers is on the Over.
In all best-of-five postseason series, teams taking a 1-0 lead have gone on to win the series 116 of 160 times (73%). In Division Series in the current 2-2-1 format, teams taking a 1-0 lead at home have won the series 42 of 56 times (75%). Tampa Bay is -190 on the series line and New York +160. Whichever team wins tonight takes the series, in my opinion.
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Yankees vs. Rays MLB same-game parlay
- Tampa Bay +1.5
- Race to six runs: Neither
FanDuel SGP price: +103 (subject to change)
Normally, I'd say expect both these pitchers to go at least six innings strong, and if this were a couple of decades ago, maybe seven, eight or even a full nine innings. But that is simply not how modern-day baseball works, and you can somewhat blame the Rays as they essentially invented using an opener. And there's also the fact this series was dark on Sunday and will be again Tuesday.
So, every reliever is at the disposal of managers Aaron Boone and Kevin Cash, so that could mean a bit quicker hook for Schlittler or Peralta than would be the case in the regular season. To that end, Schlittler's Over/Under outs total at DK is set at 17.5 and Peralta's 14.5. Peralta is a +445 longshot to earn a win because the various sportsbooks aren't sure if he will even go the full five to qualify. By comparison, Schlittler is +136 to win.
Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) followed up his will-be AL Cy Young Award-winning season with a spectacular home outing against Boston last Tuesday in Game 1 of the AL Wild-Card Series with 6.1 shutout innings, two hits allowed and 10 strikeouts in the victory. That improved the 25-year-old Boston native to 2-1 in three career playoff starts with a 0.87 ERA and 24 strikeouts with only 15 hits allowed in 20.2 innings.
And Schlittler said basically what I mentioned above in that the greater Tampa area is still a Yankees town regarding tonight: "I wouldn't say there's really too much of an away crowd here. I expect there to be a lot of Yankees fans. In some ways, you are, to an extent, kind of playing at home. I feel like the guys are excited to have that atmosphere here."
That said, the attendance for Game 1 with the upper deck fully open (in a rarity) was 40,542, the highest total at the Trop since Game 5 of the ALDS in 2010. Both Rays players and Cash made it a point after the 1-0 victory to note the crowd: "That's the best crowd noise I've ever witnessed in any ballpark," Cash said.
Schlittler was quite a bit better away during the regular season at 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA and .153 opponents' batting average in 17 starts. His road ERA, OBA, WHIP (0.74), OBP (.206) and OPS (.456) all lead MLB starting pitchers. Schlittler was 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts this season at the Trop.
Young Rays superstar Junior Caminero is the only Tampa Bay batter to go yard off him career with one dinger in 14 at-bats. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Schlittler at 6.0 innings, 7.0 strikeouts, 4.2 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs.
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The Rays acquired Peralta from the Mets at the deadline for games just like this. The pending free agent was bad with New York and struggled at first after the move but found his rhythm, as pending free agents tend to do. Perhaps no coaching staff in the majors is better regarded for helping pitchers fix their mechanics than Tampa Bay.
Clearly, it worked here as Peralta went 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his final six starts. He was the AL Pitcher of the Month for September. Peralta has a big act to follow after Drew Ramussen dominated New York in Game 1. He became the seventh pitcher in the modern era to carry a no-hit bid through 7 2/3 innings in the postseason. It was the longest postseason no-hit bid in franchise history and the longest vs. the Bombers in the playoffs in the modern era.
The Yankees didn't see the "good" Peralta in the regular season, as he faced them at Citi Field on May 17 while he was with the Mets, and he allowed three runs with six walks in 5.0 innings of a no-decision. Control was certainly one of Peralta's Mets issues. The model forecasts him at 5.2 innings, 5.6 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs.
Cody Bellinger has good career numbers off him at 6-for-14 with a homer and double. Anthony Volpe didn't play Game 1 but might tonight, as he's 2-for-4 against Peralta with a homer and double. Volpe hasn't played since Game 1 of the last round.
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For what it's worth, through Sunday's action, teams to score first in these playoffs are 12-3 and clubs to outhomer their opponents are 10-2 (few games where tied). The model has Rays by a score of 4.1-4.0 so I'll gladly take the +1.5 insurance at a pretty good price. That race to six runs prop has been hit or miss, but as noted above both bullpens will be fully ready, so I would expect a 4-3 type game. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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