Yankees' Gerrit Cole returns vs. Rays: Prediction and everything to know about crucial AL East series

By mid-May standards, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will open a very important three-game series at Yankee Stadium on Friday night. The Rays are surging, the Yankees are struggling, and this weekend will shape the AL East race for the summer months. It's a big series, for the Yankees moreso than the Rays, but a big series nonetheless.

Here are the top of the American League standings entering Friday:

1. Rays: 33-15
2. Yankees: 30-21 (4 ½ GB)
3. Guardians: 30-22 (5 GB)
4. Athletics: 26-24 (8 GB)
5. White Sox: 25-24 (8 ½ GB)

Those are the only five AL teams with a winning record. Based on run differential, the Yankees (+67) and Rays (+40) have separated themselves from the rest of the pack eight weeks into the season. They're the AL's two best teams. Here are the details for this weekend's three-game series in the Bronx. Games can be streamed regionally on fubo (try for free).

Fri., May 22

7:05 p.m. ET

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.51)

YES, Rays TV

Sat., May 23

1:35 p.m. ET

LHP Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.58) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 3.19)

YES, Rays TV

Sun., May 24

1:35 p.m. ET

RHP Will Warren (3-1, 3.61) vs. LHP Shane McClanahan (5-2, 2.82)

YES, Rays TV

Cole will make his first start back from Tommy John surgery Friday. He last pitched in the 2024 World Series. Cole is effectively stepping into Max Fried's rotation spot after Fried suffered a bone bruise in his pitching elbow last week. The two high-prices aces have yet to be healthy at the same time and pitch in the same rotation together.

Here now are five things to know about this weekend's important three game series at Yankee Stadium, plus a prediction.

1. Gerrit Cole is back

Gerrit Cole will make his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery in Friday night's series opener. Cole's last game was Game 5 of the 2024 World Series. He blew out his elbow early in spring training last year, had surgery, and has spent the last 14 months rehabbing. Cole made six minor-league rehab starts leading into Friday's season debut.

"I'm most looking forward to just competing at the highest stage," Cole said ahead of his return (via the New York Daily News). "We have a first-place club coming in. They have the best record in the American League. Divisional opponent. So pretty high stakes for a Friday night in May."

The original plan had Cole making one final rehab start this week, then rejoining the rotation next week. The Yankees had a change of heart and will instead bring Cole back on Friday, even though manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including MLB.com, they "want to be disciplined coming off a serious injury where he missed a lot of time" last weekend.

"Didn't want to make any rash decisions just because Max was out. This isn't about that spot," Boone explained (via the Associated Press). "We were going to play the long game with this, but in just like all the talks with the trainers, pitching group, Gerrit, his support group and all that, we just felt like he has done everything he needs to be ready to compete now at this level."

Cole pitched well during his rehab assignment, including striking out 28 and walking three in 29 innings. He topped out at 99.6 mph in his final rehab start last weekend. It was his fastest pitch since August 2023. The return from Tommy John surgery isn't always smooth, but Cole checked every box. He's expected to come back and be an instant difference-maker.

Also returning Friday for the Yankees will be shortstop José Caballero, who spent the minimum 10 days on the injured list with a small fracture in his right middle finger. The Yankees opted to demote outfielder Spencer Jones, not Anthony Volpe, to clear a roster spot for Caballero. How they divvy up shortstop playing time remains to be seen.

2. The Rays swept their first meeting

This is the second of four series between the two AL East rivals and the Rays swept their first meeting, a three-game set at Tropicana Field from April 10-12. They were three close games:

• April 10: TB 5, NY 3 (box score)
• April 11: TB 5, NY 4 in 10 innings (box score)
• April 12: TB 5, NY 4 (box score)

With the new, more balanced schedule, division rivals play only 13 times a year, not 19, so these head-to-head matchups take on increased importance. You only get so many chances to take matters into your own hands and gain ground on the team you are competing with. That's one reason this is such an important weekend for the Yankees.

The Rays and Yankees will meet next for four games at Tropicana Field (July 6-9) and then three games at Yankee Stadium (Sept. 22-24). That Yankee Stadium series is the second-to-last series of the regular season. If the Yankees keep pace with Tampa in the AL East, that could very well be one of the biggest series of the 2026 season.

3. Judge is in a bad slump

The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 game. During that time, they've averaged 3.15 runs per game with a team .627 OPS. Not coincidentally, captain Aaron Judge has been stuck in his worst slump of the year, and really in several years. Judge has hit .191/.321/.298 with one home run during the 4-9 stretch, and he is 0 for 11 with eight strikeouts in this last three games.

"I'm not doing enough at the plate," Judge said about his slump (via MLB.com). "... I wouldn't say we're not seeing the ball well. I think it's about making sure we're swinging at the right pitches."

For the season, Judge is hitting .250/.381/.554 with 16 home runs. That would be a career year for most players, but it is a big step down for Judge, who had one of the best four-year stretches in baseball history from 2022-25 (.311/.439/.677). Judge ranks seventh among all players in OPS (.936). Needless to say, the Yankees need him to have a big series against the Rays.

4. The Rays have a pretty big home/road split

Like most teams, the Rays play much better at home. They just wrapped up a 5-1 homestand and they've won 11 of their last 12 home games overall. For the season, the Rays are an excellent 19-5 at home and a merely very good 14-10 on the road. Here are the team's home/road splits:

Record

19-5 (.792)

14-10 (.583)

Run differential

+34

+6

OPS

.759

.698

ERA

3.33

3.86

The Yankees, too, are better at home (16-8 and a +47 run differential) than on the road (14-13 and a +20 run differential), though not quite as extreme as the Rays. In terms of home/road splits, this weekend's series favors the Yankees. They need things to play out that way on the field. Their offense is built to bang in Yankee Stadium.

5. Both teams are banged up

The Yankees and Rays both had a player exit Wednesday's game with an injury. Rays designated hitter Yandy Díaz left the game after being hit by a pitch that managed to hit both hands. Imaging came back negative and the hope is rest and treatment during Thursday's off-day will put Díaz in a good enough place to play Friday. It remains to be seen if he'll be in the lineup.

Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham, meanwhile, tweaked his left knee sliding into second base Wednesday, which forced him out of the game. Tests showed only inflammation, no structural damage, and Grisham admitted the knee has been bugging him for some time. He was not in Thursday's lineup but Boone said Grisham could be an option for Friday's game against Tampa.

The Yankees will be without Fried (elbow), Giancarlo Stanton (calf), and Jasson Domínguez (shoulder) this weekend, though they are getting Cole and Caballero back. The Rays are without Ryan Pepiot (hip), Cole Sulser (back), and Edwin Uceta (shoulder).

Prediction

The Rays are scorching hot (21-4 in their last 25 games), the Yankees are not (4-9 in their last 13 games), and the Rays play a style of baseball that seems designed specifically to give the Yankees fits. They don't strike out, they run aggressively, and they force the defense to make the plays. The Yankees are infamously poor fundamentally. I say the Rays take two of three this weekend.