Saul Loeb/Pool via AP After President Trump’s July 16 address exaggerating U.S. election vulnerabilities to foreign operators, Senate Intelligence Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) was sharply critical. Warner called it “a whole series of falsehoods, accusations, I believe aimed at trying to undermine America’s confidence in our system.”
With November’s midterm elections fast approaching, Trump is driven by desperation, fearing that Republicans could lose control of the House and possibly the Senate. Therefore, anticipating misleading statements in his Oval Office speech, ABC, NBC, and CNN refused to cover it live. They are now facing authoritarian-like threats in the form of “future broadcast license proceedings.”
Along with a desire to quash dissent, Trump’s disinformation campaign mirrors a strongman’s playbook. Citing unverified data on noncitizens voting, the president made a sweeping, unsubstantiated claim, saying, “These disclosures reveal an election system so broken and so vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it. It is not defensible.” (Note that even in New Jersey, where 6,600 non-citizens were recently found to have registered to vote, only 400 of them actually cast ballots.)
Trump’s bombastic stance is undercut by his own two presidential election victories and one loss. Consider that in 2016, Donald Trump lost the national popular vote while carrying the Electoral College. Although it is an unpopular way to win, it proved that our system abides by the Constitution. Moreover, because elections are decentralized and state-run, our voting system is less vulnerable to widespread tampering.
Then, in 2020, for legitimate political reasons, Trump lost re-election. Despite his refusal to concede, which helped spark the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, our “broken system” held strong. Therefore, one must ask whether our election system was suddenly ‘unbroken’ when Trump overwhelmingly won a delayed reelection on Nov. 5, 2024?
Yet his repeated lies about winning in 2020 are accepted by many as truth. Among Republicans, 50 percent believe the 2020 presidential election was rigged, compared with 28 percent of Americans, according to one poll.
Trump is a master manipulator with a personality that cannot bear to lose, ever. When he does lose, manufactured reasons are repeated ad nauseam that most of his supporters believe. So now, given Trump’s low approval rating, America faces a no-win election.
In his July 16 speech, Trump’s strategy was to undermine electoral confidence and create widespread uncertainty. However, if Republicans retain control of Capitol Hill, Team Trump will boast that the election was free and fair. Conversely, if they lose, the election will have been stolen or rigged by illegal voters, foreign government interference, manipulation of voting machines, corrupt mail-in votes, Democrat cheating, media bias, UFOs or some combination of those things.
A day after Trump’s speech, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin was already threatening states, flagging several of these factors (not UFOs — yet) for anticipated Republican midterm losses, possibly as excuses for him to cut federal grant funds now or interfere later.
Nonetheless, elections are the responsibility of county boards that report to their state boards, with no federal meddling and protections against nationwide manipulation. But the president, who has expanded presidential power like no other, is now driven to exert federal control to protect “election integrity” through well-known authoritarian tactics such as fear, threats, and intimidation.
Trump is not shy about engaging in election intimidation. In a May 10 Truth Social post, he announced he will deploy an “Election Integrity Army in every single State to preserve the sanctity of each legal vote.” He warned this Army “will be much bigger and stronger” than it was in 2024. Believe him.
A revealing new study found that voters expect and fear widespread federal ICE deployment at polling places, while trust in elections has declined.
Americans will know that Trump has gone full authoritarian if he invokes the Insurrection Act, which authorizes him to deploy the military to suppress civil disorder or squelch rebellion against the federal government. Trump already threatened to do so in January, when a prescient Hill op-ed writer suggested it was a dress rehearsal for the midterms. Below are some possible scenarios, and after Jan. 6, 2021, anything is possible!
In one scenario, Trump declares a national emergency, announcing that the elections are “insecure” or “under threat,” thereby requiring armed federal supervision.
In another, Trump rejects the outcome of the midterm elections and orders the military to prevent Democrats from seating their majorities on Capitol Hill.
Another possibility is that Republicans retain control of Congress, but many voters come away believing that Team Trump rigged the election. Millions of Americans take to the streets, and Trump uses force to crush what he will call a “rebellion” or “insurrection.”
Trump’s strongman tactics could also include the U.S. Postal Service interfering with the delivery of mail-in ballots, an unresolved issue worth watching. And, leaving no watchdogs, Trump recently fired the remaining Democrats from the independent Election Assistance Commission. Worse, he decimated the high-tech agency that is charged with protecting the election’s cybersecurity infrastructure.
Given all the above, will voter participation decline or increase to fight back? Either way, America’s first authoritarian election will be epic.
Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
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