FILE – President Donald Trump shakes hands with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File) President Trump surely believes his memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire with Iran will usher in an era of Middle East peace and, more importantly, close the book on a growing political vulnerability.
And although polling suggests the deal has seemingly bandaged a key political issue for Trump ahead of the midterms, this deal presents a political nightmare for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Indeed, whereas the war had long been unpopular among Americans, Israeli opinion is the inverse. Israeli opinion polling conducted at the height of the fighting, when Israelis were constantly under fire, found that 79 percent of Israelis supported the war. Recent polling has confirmed similar sentiment.
Now, with voters in both countries soon heading to their respective ballot boxes — Israel also has an election this fall — Netanyahu must reckon with being forced to end a war that Israelis overwhelmingly want to continue.
And he must do so while balancing his responsibility to protect Israelis without angering Trump and Vice President JD Vance, both of whom have aimed increasingly hostile, even threatening rhetoric at Israeli officials.
To be sure, much of the concern stems from the fact that the deal allows Iran to dictate Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon. Tehran is effectively using Israeli self-defense strikes as a reason to cause headaches for the U.S.
Additionally, the deal frontloads benefits to Iran, effectively surrendering America’s leverage. Sanctions relief immediately allowing Iran to sell oil, unfreezing Iranian funds, ending a suffocating U.S. blockade and a $300 billion “reconstruction fund” allow the regime to refill its coffers, rebuild its shattered military, arm terrorist proxies and double down on domestic repression.
Equally dangerous is that nothing explicitly prohibits Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day window — which it has threatened to do — especially now that Tehran knows it has little to fear from Trump’s bombastic threats. Trump and Vance have stressed that the promised benefits are “performance based,” though they have said little about the mechanisms to punish violations.
Further, by pushing off discussions over Iran’s nuclear program, this deal ensures that the war’s main goal, shared by the U.S. and Israel, remains unachieved. Crucially, this is not to suggest that Trump’s consideration should be Netanyahu’s political fortunes. As U.S. president, Trump must have Americans as his top priority.
Yet the deal was reportedly opposed by the CIA director as well as the secretaries of State and Defense. And it was met with outright skepticism from even Trump’s most stalwart supporters, including some in Congress. This underscores how potentially dangerous this deal is.
With that in mind, while Trump hopes ending the fighting will boost Republicans’ midterm chances, Netanyahu faces a rapidly darkening storm at an especially precarious time. Since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks, Israel has been engulfed in wars for nearly three years, and polls consistently show the impact this has had on Netanyahu.
Put another way, the wars have rapidly shifted from a political strength to a political vulnerability for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.
According to two recent polls from Zman Israel, the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot would have 60 seats — one shy of a majority — and Netanyahu’s bloc would trail with 50 seats. Likewise, Israel’s Channel 12 reported findings showing the opposition at 59 seats, versus 51 for Netanyahu’s coalition.
Similarly, Israel’s Kan News released a poll showing the anti-Netanyahu camp with 68 seats against Netanyahu’s 52, though the 68-seat figure includes 11 from Arab parties which the other surveys do not assume will join a coalition. Nevertheless, even removing the Arab parties, the polls all point in the same direction, reflecting the nightmare Netanyahu faces.
Having built his political career on perceptions that only he can make Israel’s case in Washington and convince Americans of the dangers posed by Iran, a forced premature end to the fighting may shatter that image.
At the same time, Netanyahu benefited from Israelis’ belief in his singular ability to sway Trump. With the U.S. president acquiescing to Iranian demands linking the Iranian and Lebanese theaters and forcing an end to fighting there, Netanyahu has no good options.
Does Netanyahu risk Trump’s wrath by responding to Hezbollah’s attacks, or does he surrender Israel’s sovereignty and risk losing his own voters in order to preserve a deal Israel was not party to? To that end, a true break with Trump would further erode Israel’s standing with Americans and be a hurdle that even Netanyahu would likely be unable to overcome.
Ultimately, the deal’s full impact remains to be seen, so final judgement must wait. Much will depend on how strictly the U.S. enforces Iran’s “performance” and on the course of nuclear negotiations.
However, even on its most generous reading, this deal seemingly leaves no one save for the Iranian regime safer or stronger. And, in forcing a premature peace on an ally still under fire, Trump may yet topple one of his most loyal partners abroad while handing Tehran the very thing the war was meant to deny.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is vice president at Schoen Cooperman Research.
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