NOW PLAYING
The United States launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran on Wednesday, marking the second successive night of offensive action.
The new strikes, which were announced in a social media post by U.S. Central Command (Centcom) shortly after 4 p.m. EDT, were far from a surprise. President Trump had told reporters earlier in the day that he would “probably” order such actions after oil tankers came under attack in the vital Strait of Hormuz, presumably by Iran.
“We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” Trump said.
Centcom described the strikes as being intended to “further degrade [Iran’s] ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” The statement claimed the U.S. was “holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”
The question now is whether a return to full-blown war is imminent or whether the current hostilities amount only to skirmishes that might disrupt, but not destroy, the search for a more lasting peace.
Trump is sending conflicting signals, as he often does.
Attending a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, he contended that Iran’s actions in the Strait had essentially ended the ceasefire formalized in a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) last month.
“For me, I think it’s over,” the president said.
Trump also derided the leadership of Iran in especially vigorous terms. He described them as “scum” and “cuckoo,” and suggested their word could not be trusted. He implied they had taken advantage of an informal agreement that Washington would not target leaders of the Islamic Republic during this week’s ceremonies for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on Feb. 28, the first day of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. He has been succeeded as supreme leader by his son Mojtaba, who has not been seen in public amid reports that he was injured in those strikes.
At a Wednesday news conference before leaving Ankara, Trump appeared dismissive of the idea of an all-encompassing peace agreement with Tehran.
“I’m not sure I want to make a deal with them,” he said, musing moments later that he might “just finish the job.”
The problem is obvious, however.
If Trump’s view of finishing the job involves a comprehensive military victory and the defenestration of Iran’s leadership, the price will be extremely high.
Weeks of bombing by the U.S. and Israel failed to make the Islamic Republic “cry uncle,” as Trump had once predicted they would, and Iran’s de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices spiraling, leading to sharp increases in prices at gas pumps across America.
Prices dropped sharply once the MOU was set and tensions appeared to ease. But the new strikes and Trump’s more bellicose rhetoric caused significant turbulence on energy markets on Wednesday. The price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil had risen more than 6 percent as of 5 p.m. EDT.
Given those dynamics, it’s understandable that Trump at other times on Wednesday seemed to balk at the idea that all-out war was on the horizon.
At one point, he directly said, “I don’t think it’s going to start again….Anything that happens is going to be over very quickly and will only make it safer – including for oil.”
He also seemed to back further talks between the Iranians and U.S. emissaries, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
There are political considerations at home that weigh against a return to war as well.
Beyond the specifics of the oil price issue, the war on Iran was never popular. Polling has consistently shown most Americans disapproving of the way Trump has conducted it. The president’s GOP colleagues in Congress are far from eager to put the conflict center-stage again with less than four months to go before the midterm elections.
Further political discomfort was inflicted on Trump from several directions during the course of the conflict.
At its outset, influential commentators in the MAGA media universe, including Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, in effect accused Trump of having been manipulated into the war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Conversely, when the MOU was signed months later, hawkish voices on the right complained that the deal was too lax, calling into question the purpose of fighting the war in the first place.
Whatever Trump decides to do in the immediate future, there are enormous questions that still hang unanswered by the MOU.
The brief document left significant details about the future of Iran’s nuclear material to be resolved later. The same goes for the exact mechanisms that will govern shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the longer term.
The MOU said nothing concrete about Iran’s support of proxy groups in the region, despite Trump’s earlier insistence that ending such backing was a key war aim; yet it did encompass peace in Lebanon, much to the chagrin of Netanyahu and his allies.
For the moment, the Iranians appear to be in no mood to yield any further.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and a key figure in the negotiations, accused the U.S. of “major” violations of the MOU in a social media post early on Wednesday.
Ghalibaf contended these transgressions included the reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, attacks on southern Iran and “continued Zionist aggression.”
His post concluded: “The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”
For Trump it seems that, once again, he is caught between a rock and a hard place.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Ali Khamenei Benjamin Netanyahu Donald Trump Jared Kushner Megyn Kelly Steve Witkoff Tucker CarlsonCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Comments: Link copiedMore Administration News
See All
Energy & Environment Iran ceasefire’s end drives up oil prices and uncertainty by Rachel Frazin 2 hours ago Energy & Environment / 2 hours ago 
