The high-quality relegation battle more like a title race

Nottingham Forest celebrate scoring against Chelsea on Monday

Image source, Getty ImagesImage caption,

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in 10 games across all competitions

ByKeifer MacDonaldBBC Sport journalist

Published39 minutes ago

It is proving to be one of the highest-quality fights for survival in Premier League history.

After wins for Leeds United, Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest over the bank holiday weekend, the quest for safety is hotting up.

It has been a game of who will blink first over the past couple of months with the three sides all in danger of finishing in the the third and final relegation place - Forest, Spurs and West Ham - having only lost one of their past nine Premier League games between them.

It is a battle that has had all the twists and turns, controversy and defining moments usually associated with a title race.

As West Ham found out the hard way on Saturday afternoon when they were thrashed 3-0 by Brentford, poor performances and dropped points are being punished emphatically by rivals this time around.

The improved quality of the teams in and around the drop zone means for the first time since the 2015-16 season, a team will be relegated from the Premier League with 36 points or more.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live's Monday Night Club, journalist Rory Smith said: "Someone is going down with a lot of points, that is the reality of it.

"In the last two seasons, the bottom three didn't crack 30 points, and we talked a lot about the idea that the promoted teams were at such a massive financial disadvantage that they couldn't compete.

"They have all responded when the pressure has been really high. They have all found form.

"Since the game against [Manchester] City in November, Leeds have been upper‑mid‑table in terms of form. Forest have come good a little bit later on.

"And Spurs and West Ham - although they are the two in danger - one of them will go down with a lot more points than any team for quite a long time."

Can't stop winning - but still can't stay up?

By beating Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge on Monday, Nottingham Forest extended their unbeaten run in the Premier League to seven matches.

It moved them six points clear of 18th-placed West Ham, and restored their five-point advantage over Spurs in 17th.

Although not confirmed mathematically, the three points should be enough to seal Forest's place in the Premier League next season.

After a season marred by three managerial changes at the City Ground, Forest will be indebted to Vitor Pereira if survival is achieved.

Since replacing Sean Dyche in February, the 57-year-old has lost only two of his nine Premier League matches in charge.

Pereira's side are unbeaten in matches against Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Sunderland and Chelsea.

In their past three games, Forest have remarkably scored 12 times and conceded just twice to improve their goal difference from -12 to -2. It could effectively act as an extra point at the end of the season.

Spurs, on the other hand, followed up a first Premier League win of 2026 last week by earning a vital victory against a much-changed Aston Villa side on Sunday night.

After three matchdays in the relegation zone, the win meant Spurs, last season's Europa League winners, climbed out of the bottom three and leapfrogged West Ham.

Speaking on Monday Night Club, former Manchester City and Newcastle United goalkeeper Shay Given said: "It's so tight now. It's between two, realistically. The rest are home and dry. Maybe not mathematically, but they are done and dusted.

"It's a huge week for Tottenham. Forget about the tactics, forget about the managers, forget about the boardroom. It's about the result. It's three points - the lift that will give the lads.

"Imagine them going into training today. A few weeks back, the Spurs stadium has been nearly empty towards the end of games. You could see them in the away end yesterday - the place was rocking.

"It's just that feeling, the human feeling of 'we've won a game of football. We're out of the relegation zone. We've flipped with West Ham'."

However, it is not all doom and gloom for the Hammers despite their precarious position.

They have actually improved significantly in the past three months and, since suffering back-to-back defeats in January, have only lost four of their past 14 Premier League matches.

But if any club are aware that it can sometimes be too little, too late, then it is West Ham.

The east Londoners have the unwanted record of accumulating the most points in the final eight games of the season (15) of any side to be relegated from the Premier League.

In more recent times, Newcastle United - the last team to be relegated from the Premier League with 36 points or more - hold the record for the longest unbeaten run at the end of a season (six games) by a team relegated to the Championship.

If Forest, Spurs and West Ham maintain their current run of form, one of the three could end the season with a similarly unwanted place in the Premier League record books.

How many points will be needed this season?

In a season that has produced so many twists and turns, it is impossible to predict what will come next.

Since the Premier League became a 20-team format in 1995, the average number of points needed for safety has been 36.

But that will not be enough this time around given that West Ham have already reached that tally and currently occupy the third and final relegation place.

"West Ham had been the form team out of the three clubs," said Smith.

"Until the Brentford game [on Saturday], you looked at them and thought, 'Nuno [Espirito Santo] has got a really strong tactical discipline there and has shaped them into a proper team'.

"They looked totally doomed in January but Nuno took them from that and managed to craft a bit of an identity, and they did seem to put a little bit of a run together.

"So Saturday came as a real shock - against a team that hadn't won in eight games. To put in that performance having built up a little bit of steam is worrying."

According to data experts Opta, the Hammers are now favourites (77.71%) to be relegated, with Tottenham at 22.03% and Forest just 0.13%.

If the three sides continue picking up points at their current rate, then it will be the Hammers who are relegated to the second tier for the first time since 2011.

The 2023 Conference League winners are averaging 1.03 points per game, which would mean they finish the season on 39 points.

Tottenham's return of 1.06 points per game puts them on course to finish on 40 points, while Forest are on track to secure safety for a fourth consecutive season by earning a tally of 46 points.

In a relegation battle like no other, will the Premier League have one final shock in store?

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