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Prediction market users have wagered in excess of $197 million on midterm election results, according to NBC News.
The outlet analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket for its report, published on Friday. On both platforms, users can bet on a variety of topics, including sports, global events and political elections.
As of Sunday evening, the most likely outcome in the November midterms is Democrats taking control of the Senate and House, according to Kalshi. The prediction market gives that outcome a 46 percent probability, with a GOP-controlled Senate and a Democratic-controlled House having a 38 percent chance of occurring.
Kalshi puts the odds of Republicans maintaining their narrow grip on both chambers at 17 percent, while the chances of Democrats flipping the Senate and Republicans keeping the House are just 1.7 percent.
Wagering on elections via prediction markets is not new, either. Fortune reported on Election Day in 2024 that Polymarket users placed $3.2 billion in bets on the presidential contest between President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris, with a majority of bets on the former.
Multiple instances of individuals using inside information to place bets on prediction markets have also allegedly occurred in recent months.
Last month, federal prosecutors in New York charged a Google employee with using nonpublic data to place bets on the results of the company’s “Year in Search” list for 2025.
The Justice Department in April also accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of placing Polymarket wagers regarding the operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro using details he garnered from the raid’s planning.
Van Dyke allegedly made more than $400,000 in profits from the wagers, which he placed prior to the raid occurring on Jan. 3 of this year.
Despite the availability of wagering on election results and the sheer volume of bets placed on the midterms, a plurality of respondents to a recent Politico survey said placing such wagers should be illegal.
The poll, conducted by Public First from May 17 to 19, found that 44 percent of respondents believed betting on election results should be illegal. Three in 10 respondents said those types of bets should be legal, while a quarter said they did not know.
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