NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, best upsets, Cinderella teams: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

SportsLine's college basketball model has called 25 first-round NCAA Tournament upsets by double-digit seeds

The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed on Sunday and the first weekend of March Madness is typically all about matchups. If you love to see teams that let it fly, No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida could be one of the best matchups of March Madness 2026. Both teams were top 25 in the country in 3-point attempts per game and the expectation is certainly for a high-scoring battle between two teams that love playing with pace.

Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. missed the ACC Tournament with a back injury and his status for the first round is up in the air, so might South Florida be a double-digit seed worth backing in your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2026 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Kevin Willard has brought Villanova back to March Madness in his first year as the program's head coach, following three straight years of it missing the NCAA Tournament. Before these last three seasons, Villanova had been an NCAA Tournament staple, making 16 of 17 Big Dances and winning two national titles. The Wildcats enter 24-8 ahead of a matchup against Utah State, which is 28-6 and coming off a Mountain West Tournament title. The Aggies are playing in their fourth straight March Madness, but they have won only one game in the prior three trips.

Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. Jai Lucas and Dennis Gates both played in the NCAA Tournament as players, with Lucas making the Big Dance at both Florida and Texas while Gates earned a bid in 2002 with Cal. Now Lucas will make his March Madness debut as a head coach with Miami and Gates is making his third appearance as a head coach with Missouri after making it once with Cleveland State. Miami went 25-8 this season and went 13-5 in the ACC while Missouri went 20-12 and was 10-8 in the SEC. Tipoff for this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday.

The third matchup to watch in the West Region features No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Both programs are coming off conference tournament championships, with Arkansas defeating Vanderbilt on Sunday to win the SEC and Hawaii besting UC Irvine on Saturday to win the Big West. The Razorbacks are led by superstar freshmen Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas while Hawaii's top four scorers this season were all seniors. They'll tip off at 4:25 p.m. ET in Portland at the Moda Center on Thursday. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.