After back-to-back days with single League Championship Series games, we are back to a doubleheader on Thursday. The first of them is ALCS Game 3, as the venue shifts to Cleveland with the Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays tied at 1-1. I'm sure hoping this goes the full seven. And it's our final day game of the 2026 MLB season thanks to a switch, unless of course we get another unforeseen change. But three of the four teams still standing don't have weather concerns at their ballparks. Bet $5+ on ALCS Game 3 to get $200 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
This was to be a 6 p.m. ET first pitch from Progressive Field, but with rain in the forecast it was moved up to 1 ET. It might be cloudy with highs of 68 and cross winds that shouldn't factor in much. They would have at night. Of course, the Rays and Brewers play indoors, while the Dodgers play in sunny L.A. Thus, Cleveland was our only real weather possibility.
Who doesn't love matinee playoff baseball? Kinda stinks for the fans, but I don't see an advantage one way or another, except perhaps for pitchers later in the game with shadows around home plate. Sitting at -133 at DraftKings, the Guardians are taking 87% of handle but only 38% of tickets at DraftKings. On the total of 6.5, there's a decent lean to the Over.
On the updated series line, Tampa Bay is -135 and Cleveland +115 with the favored exact result Rays in six at +320. In all best-of-7 series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams that have split the first two games at home have won the series 50 of 90 times (56%). And in all best-of-7 series tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has gone on to win 71 of 102 times (69.3%), including 13 of 18 in the ALCS.
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Rays vs. Guardians MLB same-game parlay
- Cleveland alt +1
- Both to score 2+ runs
DraftKings SGP price: +132 (subject to change)
Both teams are likely kicking themselves for not being up 2-0. The Rays blew a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning in losing Game 1, while a two-out error by Guardians All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez led to all three Tampa Bay unearned runs in the 3-1 victory in Game 2 on Tuesday. You can't give up unearned runs in the playoffs and hope to win, especially away. It marked only the sixth time this century in which a team lost a playoff game without allowing an earned run.
"José Ramírez is as good as any third baseman there is in the game, and we were fortunate to maybe catch a break there," said Rays manager Kevin Cash. "But once you catch the break, it's about what you do with it."
That's how the Rays win, though: They capitalize on other teams' mistakes and help force them with aggressive base-running or bunting (although that error wasn't on a bunt). They won without a home run for just the fourth time in team playoff history but second this year behind Game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees.
Tampa Bay also improved to an astonishing 89-0 this season when leading after eight innings as Bryan Baker finished it up with his fourth save of these playoffs and 34th consecutive save conversion (club record). The last team to finish a full season including playoffs with a perfect winning percentage and at least 89 wins when leading after eight was the 2022 Mets (90-0). The last AL team do so was the 2002 Athletics (93-0).
With Wednesday being a travel day, that terrific bullpen will be fully ready. And it's likely needed plenty behind Griffin Jax, a good pitcher but one of the weaker links of the rotation. He was 8-10 with a 3.53 ERA during the season in 34 appearances (23 starts). I'm a little surprised that Cash isn't going with Nick Martinez, who started Game 3 of the ALDS against Yankees.
Jax pitched in relief in that game and allowed a run with four strikeouts over two innings. Counting that and his final four regular-season outings, Jax has allowed two runs and 10 hits over 20 innings with 19 strikeouts. There's also the fact Jax pitched for the Twins for years, so he's familiar with Progressive Field, where he holds a 2.19 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 13 career relief appearances.
He didn't face the Guardians this season, with Ramirez facing him the most career and going 5-for-17 with a double and three RBI. He carries a 14-game postseason on-base streak into tonight, tied for second-longest in team history. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Jax at 4.8 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 3.4 hits allowed and 1.2 earned runs. I'm sure the Rays would take that.
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Cleveland has played six ALCS Game 3s all-time and lost the first one in 1995 to Seattle but has won the past five. And it turns to big righty Gavin Williams on the mound. He's one of my favorite pitchers to back in the regular season the past few years, especially at home. The 27-year-old went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 248 strikeouts (second in the majors) during the regular season overall.
He won his only start against the Rays, back on April 29 at Progressive Field with one unearned run allowed and 10 nine strikeouts over 7.2 innings. Tampa Bay All-Star Yandy Diaz has had success off him career at 7-for-15 with three doubles.
In the ALDS against the White Sox, Williams was one of the heroes at 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. He started Game 2, made an emergency relief appearance in Game 4 and then came back to start on just one day of rest in Game 5 and dominated with a team-record-tying 12 strikeouts in just 5.2 innings in earning the victory.
His four-seam fastball averaged 99.1 mph, above his regular-season average of 97.6 mph. Williams became the first pitcher in MLB history with 12 or more Ks and one or fewer hits allowed in a winner-take-all postseason game. For tonight, the model projects him at 5.5 innings. 7.0 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs.
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I lean Cleveland simply because of Williams, plus the fact Tampa Bay was good and not great away during the year. While the Guardians are short money-line favorites, I want the +1 protection even if there have been no one-run games in this series yet. The model has the Rays winning by a score of 4.0-3.7. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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