Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 second-round matchup on Sunday

The seventh-seeded Kentucky Wildcats battle the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones in the second round of the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Sunday. Kentucky advanced with an 89-84 overtime win over Santa Clara in Friday's first round, while Iowa State cruised past Tennessee State 108-74 that same day. The Wildcats (22-13), who tied for seventh in the SEC at 10-8, have won three of their last four games. The Cyclones (28-7), who tied for third in the Big 12 at 12-6, have won four of their last five. Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson (ankle) is not likely to play.

Tip-off from Enterprise Center in St. Louis is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Kentucky leads the all-time series 3-0, but the teams have not played since 2012. The Cyclones are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5. Before making any Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks, check out the Kentucky vs. Iowa State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Kentucky vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Iowa State vs. Kentucky:

Kentucky vs. Iowa State spread:    

Iowa State -5.5

Kentucky vs. Iowa State over/under:    

145.5 points

Kentucky vs. Iowa State money line:    

Kentucky +181, Iowa State -221

Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks:    

Kentucky vs. Iowa State TV:

CBS

Top Kentucky vs. Iowa State predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Kentucky vs. Iowa State, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (145.5 points). The Over hit in the last meeting between the schools. The Over has also hit in five of the last seven Kentucky games, and in each of the last two Iowa State games. Kentucky is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Wildcats to have two players score 13 points or more, including Otega Oweh, who is projected to score 19.1 points. The Cyclones are projected to have five players score 10.2 points or more, led by Milan Momcilovic, who is projected to score 22.6 points. The model is projecting 154 combined points. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Iowa State vs. Kentucky picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Kentucky vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Iowa State vs. Kentucky, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kentucky vs. Iowa State spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.