Top horse racing expert reveals picks for 2026 Kentucky Derby horses like Renegade, Commandment and The Puma
By Ross Kelly Apr 23, 2026 at 12:59 pm ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images It has been a dozen years since a horse born outside the Bluegrass State won the Kentucky Derby. It has also been 43 years since a horse born outside the United States prevailed in The First Jewel of the Triple Crown. Those are two droughts that the Japan-born Wonder Dean is out to end at the 2026 Kentucky Derby. He is slated to be the eighth thoroughbred from Japan to compete in The Run for the Roses and can become the fifth international horse to win the Kentucky Derby come Saturday, May 2.
The UAE Derby winner, however, is a huge longshot according to the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Wonder Dean is priced at 42-1, with the biggest 2026 Kentucky Derby favorites being Kentuckians Renegade (4-1) and Commandment (7-1). Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year's Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Commandment (5-1), even though the Florida Derby winner is one of the favorites. It's hard to ignore that Commandment is riding a four-race win streak. It's also hard to ignore trainer Brad Cox's recent Kentucky Derby history with horses at short odds.
Since 2023, Cox has had three Kentucky Derby starters priced at 10-1 or shorter, and none of them have prevailed. The three had an average finish of 9.0, and that includes having the favorite, Angel of Empire, in 2023. Just one of Cox's last 10 Kentucky Derby starters have finished in the money, as the Louisville native hasn't parlayed his home-track advantage into success as of late. See who to back at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Renegade, who at 9-2 is trying to become the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since 2018. It's been a mixed bag for Kentucky Derby favorites recently as this seven-year drought without a victory immediately followed a six-year run (2013-18) in which the favored horse won every year. Renegade has won both of his starts as a 3-year-old, including the G1 Arkansas Derby in late March. This comes after going winless as a juvenile across three races.
Renegade was sired by Into Mischief, who won his lone start on dirt at the 2007 CashCall Futurity but never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Saddled by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has the most experienced trainer in Kentucky Derby history. Pletcher's had 65 starters at the Run for the Roses, which is 14 more than any other trainer. Two of those horses have prevailed at Churchill Downs for Pletcher, but none of his last 13 Derby starters have finished in the money. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets to wager on almost any track by clicking here:
Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1), who is looking to best the third place that his sire, Gun Runner, achieved at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Trainer Brad Cox, 46, has over 2,500 career wins. His horse, Mandaloun, was elevated to the top spot at the 2021 Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit failed a post-race drug test. Cox won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer in 2020 and 2021.
Further Ado enters this year's Run for the Roses on a roll. He has never finished lower than fifth, and that came in his first race last July. Since then, he has placed no lower than third and has won three of his last four races. He is coming off a win in the Blue Grass on April 4. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby futures bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
