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Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson (D) has a slight lead over incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) in new polling on a hypothetical Senate showdown in Maine.
A University of New Hampshire poll found 49 percent of likely general election voters in the Pine Tree State said they would vote for Jackson over Collins, who notched 46 percent support, if the election were held today. Just 2 percent chose another candidate and 3 percent were unsure.
Jackson has emerged as Democrats’ top potential pick to take on Collins this fall after Graham Platner, the progressive who won the party’s primary last month, withdrew amid sexual misconduct allegations.
After running unsuccessfully for governor this cycle, Jackson now appears poised to formally win the nomination at the party’s fast-tracked convention in Bangor this weekend. Jackson secured an overwhelming majority of delegates after his top competitors dropped out of the race.
The new polling also shows Jackson leading a field of Democratic contenders with 51 percent from the party’s Senate primary voters, followed by former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Nirav Shah at 26 percent and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) at 11 percent. All other contenders notched 1 percent or less. Both Shah and Bellows have dropped out.
Platner exited the race weeks after he easily won the Democratic primary despite a growing list of scandals. His campaign effectively capsized after Politico reported that a woman alleged Platner raped her in 2021, and another woman who dated Platner on and off alleged to The Washington Post that Platner removed condoms without her consent during sex.
The progressive oyster farmer has vehemently denied those allegations but withdrew from the race as supporters fled his camp.
The Maine race for Collins’s seat is a must-win for Democrats in their fight to net the four seats they need to take control of the upper chamber this fall. It’s one of just three Senate races considered “toss up” contests by Decision Desk HQ, which forecasts that Republicans have a 53 percent chance of winning the seat at this point.
Democrats hope a new candidate can recapture the energy that fueled Platner’s political bid and eventually flip the long-red Senate slot.
Conducted July 15-20, the poll surveyed 1,236 Maine residents. For the sample of 1,178 likely general election voters, the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percent. For the set of 538 Democratic state primary voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Updated at 11:53 a.m. EDT.
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