Florida State vs. Alabama betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for Week 3 college football

We've got a rematch of a major upset from the 2025 college football season with Florida State's visiting Alabama in a Week 3 non-conference matchup. The Seminoles knocked off the Crimson Tide 31-17 at home, but they now head to Tuscaloosa with Bama looking for revenge. Each program is in a very different place right now as the Crimson Tide are 2-0 and appear to be an SEC contender while the Seminoles are 1-1 and the buzz is whether Mike Norvell will make it through the season. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sept. 19. Bet on Florida State vs. Alabama in Week 3 at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:

Florida State fired athletic director Michael Alford after a Week 2 loss to SMU, so the pressure is really on Norvell right now. He led the Seminoles to a 13-1 record in 2023, but the team went 2-10 in 2024 and 5-7 last year. FSU had a bye last week while Alabama knocked off Kentucky. The Wildcats actually led the Crimson Tide 17-16 at halftime, but Kalen DeBoer's team scored 29 unanswered points en route to a 45-17 win. We'll take a look at the latest Florida State vs. Alabama odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, break down how the two teams stack up ahead of the contest and make our best bets with help from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks on betting sites since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Florida State vs. Alabama betting odds (via DraftKings)

Florida State vs. Alabama betting preview

Ashton Daniels has looked comfortable at quarterback for the Seminoles through two games, and the running back tandem of Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton Jr. have taken a lot of pressure off him. Duce Robinson has not gotten as involved as Florida State fans would've hoped for but the receiver has still been productive. Unfortunately, the atmosphere around the program in Tallahassee is what seems to be the problem. Norvell is on arguably the hottest seat in America and the SMU loss only turned up the pressure. Alford being fired during an open week creates more tension, and while the players might say they are focused on the Tide, it's hard to imagine they don't hear any of the outside noise.

Alabama was a popular upset pick against Kentucky, and for 30 minutes, it looked like the Wildcats would make things interesting. Keelon Russell didn't play particularly well in his first road start for the Crimson Tide, but Alabama's run game and defense showed up in the second half. Daniel Hill should be able to find some holes against a Florida State defense that gives up just over 100 yards per game on the ground, while EJ Crowell and Trae'shawn Brown also got good action against Kentucky. The Crimson Tide should be able to overwhelm Florida State in the trenches, and as long as Russell doesn't try to do too much, this should be a relatively easy victory at home.

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Florida State vs. Alabama picks, prediction

Florida State-Alabama Over 48.5

Last year's matchup finished just below this line, but Alabama was on the road in Week 1 against a Florida State team ready to prove it was better than its 2-10 record from 2024. The Seminoles should be better offensively than they were two years ago, especially with Daniels representing a potential upgrade at quarterback and two solid running backs. Alabama will be more comfortable at home, and Russell has enough weapons to be more dynamic than Ty Simpson. The SportsLine model has Over 48.5 points hitting in 52.5% of simulations.