Fantasy Baseball 2026 trade advice: Which early over-achievers are we buying and selling

Chris Towers breaks down which players we're buying and selling

With just six games on the schedule Monday, there's less to talk about from the games than usual. So, before we get to our typical look at what went down yesterday – which did include a couple more interesting prospect promotions, so don't skip it! – let's take a look at the five biggest overperformers so far this season based on preseason projections and figure out how much we should be buying each as we approach the quarter mark of the season.

For this exercise, I'm comparing players' preseason projected value based on The Bat projections in the FanGraphs Auction Calculator compared to how much each has been worth so far this season, starting with one of the biggest breakouts at the suddenly loaded catcher position: 

Liam Hicks - Current value: $32 - Pre-season Projected value: -$1

What a projections system couldn't know before the season is whether there was a skills change, and it clearly seems like there was one for Hicks. He added an exaggerated leg kick to his swing and has seen significant improvements in his quality of contact – though not, notably, so much in his swing speed. He's swinging the bat about as hard as ever but has gone from some of the worst quality of contact metrics in the league to just about average, and paired with his elite swing decisions and contact skills, that has made Hicks one of the biggest breakouts at any position.

I think he's probably still playing a bit over his head, but Hicks really hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, so the big batting average and power gains might be real. Not real enough to make him one of the best catchers in Fantasy, but enough to make him a solid starting option, something the projections did not (and could not) see coming. 

Jordan Walker - Current value: $34 - Pre-season Projected value: $3

There are still real flaws here – Walker chases too much and he swings and misses way too much. This is one I very much do not think we can take a strong stance on yet one way or the other, because it requires him continuing to maintain outlier quality of contact metrics. When Walker was in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity and 66th percentile in barrel rate last season, he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. With his swing and miss issues, he doesn't just need to be a good power hitter to make this work, he needs to be one of the very best in all of baseball.

But he might be! The physical tools have always been there, and the question here is whether he has truly leveled up for good or has just had a very well-timed hot streak. I'm inclined to be skeptical, but I'll give him this: Walker looked like he was turning back into a pumpkin in late April, but now he enters play in Week 8 with a .429 xwOBA over the past 50 plate appearances. What I love seeing from a breakout is how they respond when things go wrong, and Walker has responded incredibly well. That bodes well, though I do still think I'd be open to selling high if someone is valuing him like a top-20 outfielder. 

Brandon Marsh - Current value: $19 - Pre-season Projected value: -$3

This is the first one I think we can dismiss as just a random hot streak. Marsh is 28 years old, with an established track record, and nearly all of his value is coming from running an unsustainable batting average. He's not without his merits as a hitter – and he is playing more regularly this season than in the past, which helps – but he's also clearly not a .353 hitter. He hit .280 last season, which was a great outcome, and he had 102 combined runs and RBI. He's not a big source of power or steals, so if he's hitting .280, you're talking about a fringe starting outfielder even in five-outfielder leagues. Especially since the extra playing time against left-handed pitching might have the effect of dragging that batting average even further down in the long run. He looks like the most obvious sell-high candidate from this cohort. 

Drake Baldwin - Current value: $40 - Pre-season Projected value: $19

This is one where I think Baldwin probably slows down a bit – though I will not, his .395 wOBA is actually right in line with his .393 xwOBA – and I think he'll likely still blow past his preseason expectation. Because what the projections systems couldn't (and wouldn't, in all likelihood) account for is the outrageous amount of playing time Baldwin is getting. He has yet to sit out a single game for the Braves and he has yet to hit lower than second in the order. This might be unsustainable simply from a physical standpoint – he's on pace to blast past 700 PA – but if he can hold up, Baldwin is going to give us some outlier counting stats from a catcher, and it might be enough for him to end up as the top option at the end of the season. 

Chase DeLauter - Current value: $12 - Pre-season Projected value: -$8

It makes perfect sense why DeLauter would be underrated by a projections system. He entered the season having played just 173 combined games since being drafted in 2022. He was generally very good when he played, hitting .302/.384/.504 in the minors, but projections systems are going to heavily discount production in small sample sizes. Plus: It's perfectly reasonable to assume that all of that missed development time would hamper DeLauter, even if the injuries didn't sap his physical tools (which would also be a reasonable assumption). 

But DeLauter is just a freaky talent. All of those assumptions were reasonable, but he's just good enough to overcome it. He combines exceptional plate discipline with good enough in-game power, and the result is both surface-level production and underlying metrics that make him look like a well above average hitter. And I'm buying it – it's what he's been any time he's been on the field. The Guardians are going to continue to be proactive about giving him time off, which will make it harder for DeLauter to hit some truly high-end results for Fantasy. But even with the time he's likely to miss, I think we're looking at a .280-.290 hitter with 20-plus homers, and 160-plus combined runs and RBI. The injury risk makes him a reasonable sell-high candidate, but I fully believe in the production.