Image source, SNSImage caption, Edinburgh go into Sunday's Champions Cup tie in discouraging form
ByTom EnglishBBC Scotland's chief sports writer- Published1 hour ago
The Champions Cup has reached the knockout stage and that's what everybody expects to happen in Dublin this weekend - Edinburgh to be knocked out.
It's Leinster - four-time European Cup winners and eight-time finalists - against the United Rugby Championship's 13th best team.
Leinster have landed nine bonus-point wins in a row against Edinburgh. They have won every meeting in Dublin in the past 21 years, when Leinster drew a crowd of 1,700 and Edinburgh were known as the Gunners.
For Edinburgh - a mammoth and mortifying 17 points adrift of a United Rugby Championship top-eight play-off place - this is their season now. Lose on Sunday and it's all over.
The first week of April and it's all on the line already because they're not hauling themselves into the top eight at this stage, a minimum target they have so dismally failed to meet.
The backdrop is a mess for Edinburgh. Their fans are angry and confused about head coach Sean Everitt getting a two-year extension to his contract. There was no evidence to support him getting that deal. It came as a shock and has gone down badly.
The team is now languishing in the URC with four wins from 14 games. They've beaten Benetton (12th in the table) twice, Scarlets (14th) and the Ospreys (11th). Hardly stellar triumphs. It's been a lamentable season, a run of failure that has led to three of Everitt's coaches being removed for next season but not Everitt himself.
They got a last-16 spot by dint of wins over Toulon and Gloucester (encouraging) while getting destroyed 33-0 away to Castres and 63-10 away to Bath (embarrassing).
So, while this is a game to prolong their season, it's difficult to see how they survive away to a side that has eight Test Lions in the starting line-up, an 88-cap All Black, Rieko Ioane, in the midfield, a winger in Tommy O'Brien who scored twice against Scotland at the Aviva last month and a centre in Jamie Osborne, who also scored against Scotland plus Italy, England and Wales to boot.
You could have thrown a World Cup winner in there as well, but the mountainous lock RG Snyman is injured.
'Play in short bursts to avoid Leinster multi-phase'
Edinburgh and Scotland great Chris Paterson has ideas on what has ailed his old team this season, reflecting on their soul-destroying start in the URC in which they lost to Zebre by three points and to Munster and Cardiff by just one.
"The close games have had an effect on confidence," he says. "I don't think they were that far off. Injuries haven't helped, but everybody has injuries. Their attack's not been decisive enough."
Edinburgh's pack is strong - although Magnus Bradbury is out for this game. Their backline has been thoroughly unconvincing for an age. At half-back and in an ever-changing midfield there are glaring weaknesses. Out wide Duhan van der Merwe is unavailable. They're getting a really poor return from the big wing.
"Have they got a chance? Of course there's a chance if the international players play at the top of their game," said Paterson. "The season totally rests on it. So, that has to be the driving mindset."
If they were to win would it be the biggest upset in the history of the competition? "I don't think so," Paterson believes. "The competition is 30 years old. Leinster haven't shown the form that they've shown in previous years."
It's true Leinster have not had the URC season they normally have. They are fourth and have already lost five games. In winning the competition last season they only lost twice.
"It wouldn't be the biggest [upset] ever because Leinster have stumbled a wee bit more than they'd like this season," said Paterson. "It makes them a wee bit vulnerable."
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Emphasis probably on the "wee" there. Nine of the Ireland starting team that defeated Scotland in the Six Nations are starting on Sunday. The scale of the challenge is enormous.
Leinster had some pretty tight games in the group stage - they beat Leicester by eight, La Rochelle by one and Bayonne by nine - but if they click then they are an awesome force with a world of motivation.
The Champions Cup has thrilled and tormented them in equal measure. They won the first European Cup finals they played in and then lost the next four. The most recent ones had them go down to La Rochelle by three points in 2022, then La Rochelle again by one point in 2023 and before losing to Toulouse after extra-time in 2024.
Last season was supposed to be their time but they got mugged by Northampton in the semi-final, a loss that still sends a shiver up their collective spine.
So how can the visitors pull of a shock? "Now this sounds risky but Edinburgh have to try and play rugby in short bursts," said Paterson.
"What you want to avoid against Leinster is multi-phase. The more multi-phase you get, the more breakdowns there are, the more the Irish and the Leinster system allows them to get momentum.
"If Edinburgh haven't scored within three phases, get rid of the ball, manically chase it, try and get it back instead of going nine, 10, 12 phases because defence is just getting stronger and there's more rucks for Leinster to get over. Be really aggressive, almost rash in terms of risk-reward."
It's asking a lot. Too much, in truth. It would be the sensation to end all sensations if Edinburgh were to win. This mission to Dublin's southside looks the closest thing to rugby's equivalent of the impossible job.
