Early pitching standouts: Jack Leiter and Mike Soroka waste no time showing breakout potential

Early returns appear promising, but sustainability questions remain

A great start in April means more than a great start in August, right? I mean, it has to, doesn't it? Players spend all offseason working on their game, and the first new information we get out of those players has to mean more than just some random game later in the season. 

Right?

It makes intuitive sense. But it's not necessarily true. I mean, sure, sometimes it's true. Jesus Luzardo came out of the gates red-hot last season, striking out 19 through his first two starts, a sign that he was due for a bounce-back season. And, outside of a couple of duds where he was tipping his pitches, Luzardo absolutely put together one of the best seasons of his career. 

Of course, just a little down the strikeout leaderboard for the first two starts last season, you find Mackenzie Gore, who struck out 18, and Zac Gallen, who struck out 17.  Needless to say, neither of those early-season performances meant either was on his way to an elite season – and Gore, in particular, fooled plenty of people, yours truly among them.

We should be careful with our early-season overreactions, in other words. If you didn't believe in a pitcher coming into the season, you should need extremely compelling evidence to believe in them now – and by "extremely compelling evidence," I mean a lot more than just good results in one start.

To that end, I want to begin today's newsletter by highlighting three pitching standouts from Monday's action, looking at how much I buy them being indicative of something worth chasing for Fantasy moving forward. We'll be ranging from "Okay, yeah, I'm pretty interested in what's going on here" to "No, I don't think there's anything here." Let's start with the easiest to dismiss and work our way up, shall we?

Lance McCullers, Astros vs. BOS: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

The last time McCullers mattered for Fantasy was in 2021. How long ago was that? Well, among the Astros' starting nine that season, Martin Maldonado, Yuli Gurriel, and Michael Brantley are out of baseball, and only Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Carlos Correa are still on the team – and Correa is only back after he left for four seasons. So yeah, it's been a while, and McCullers has gone through a ton of injuries since then, throwing just 103 innings with a 4.54 ERA in that span while missing two full seasons. 

In order for me to buy into McCullers, I would have needed to see some significant changes to his skill set here, and I'm just not sure we got that. His velocity was up 0.6 mph on his sinker, which isn't nothing, but isn't exactly significant. He featured a deep arsenal, highlighted by more cutters than we're used to seeing (he threw it 25% of the time, up from 5% last season), and he used that as his primary fastball against lefties. That's all well and good, but at 90 mph with iffy command, I don't see much reason to think that's going to be a game-changer for him. 

Now, look, seven strikeouts are seven strikeouts, and 17 whiffs are 17 whiffs. It isn't premium stuff anymore, but maybe McCullers has a deep enough arsenal and enough command to make it work. I'm open to the possibility, but I'm not really buying it, either. One thing McCullers does have going for him for Fantasy purposes is that we've had a shortage of true must-add pitcher performances so far. Partially, that's just the schedule – nearly everyone who has pitched so far has been a high-end starter, so there just haven't been that many waiver-wire caliber pitchers on the mound. 

So, if you're in a deep league and want to take a flier on McCullers because there just aren't any other interesting pitchers on the wire, that seems reasonable enough for me. But my expectations for McCullers just aren't that high, even if they are marginally higher today than yesterday. 

Jack Leiter, Rangers @BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

We've been down this road a few times before with Leiter, but to his credit, he keeps trying to reinvent himself. Blessed with a live arm, he sat at 97.3 mph in this one with his four-seamer, right in line with last season's velocity. But what was most notable in this one is that he actually barely used his fastballs, throwing his four-seamer and sinker just 27% of the time – even if you add in the new cutter he introduced to push him to 33% fastball usage, that's still lower than last season's 39% four-seamer usage. 

What'd he swap those fastballs out for? Changeups, mostly, as he led with that pitch and threw it 29% of the time. His second-most used pitch was his slider, and those two pitches accounted for 15 of his 21 whiffs – his curveball garnered three whiffs on four swings, while the new cutter got three on five swings, so you can see why going away from the fastballs here might not be a bad idea. 

The question becomes whether Leiter can command all of these slower, bendier pitches well enough to make this all work consistently. PitcherList's PLV stat didn't love Leiter's locations – in fact, that specific model thought McCullers' performance was better – but I'm more willing to be open-minded here. Leiter has always had good raw stuff, but has never quite figured out how to refine his approach, and I'm open to him changing things up just in case this ends up being his version of Edward Cabrera's 2025, when he finally puts it all together. Leiter is already 89% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues, so there aren't exactly a ton of opportunities to go out and add him. But this was a promising start, one I'm hoping he can build on. 

Michael Soroka, Diamondbacks vs. DET: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

There were actually a few pitching performances worth taking note of among relatively widely available options, but Soroka might actually be my favorite. I've long had a soft spot for him, and it seemed like the Nationals defense just totally wrecked any chance he had to pitch effectively in 2025 – his 4.52 ERA was ugly, but his 3.53 xERA suggests he deserved quite a bit better. And now he's got a much more helpful defense behind him with the Diamondbacks.

Not that he needed it Monday. Among those 10 strikeouts was an immaculate inning where he mowed down Javier Baez (okay, fine), Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres on nine pitches. As usual, he led with his breaking ball, which generated nine whiffs on 20 swings along with just an 86.7 mph average exit velocity. The four-seamer wasn't quite as good, but he did spot the pitch well up in the zone, while mixing in the occasional sinker and changeup as well as a new cutter. The slurve will always be the star here, and he just needs the rest of the arsenal to just be good enough when he needs them. 

It all worked Monday, and I think the improved supporting cast around him will help elevate him, too, and that might be the most notable part of this for him. Soroka's flyball tendencies will always make him susceptible to damage on contact, but if he misses enough bats and limits the free passes like he did last season, there's some upside here. I have Leiter ranked higher than Soroka for the rest of the season, obviously, but if you're asking me who changed my opinion of them more today? I'll lean Soroka, who would look like an even better addition if he didn't have the Braves, Phillies, and Orioles lined up for his next three starts. But if he handles those well, Soroka could emerge as a must-add pitcher in the coming weeks. He's not there yet, but it could happen. 

Now, let's get to everything else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: 

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Monday's action: 

Parker Messick, SP, Guardians (63%) – Because his spot in the rotation was up in the air, Messick never quite got the hype I thought he deserved this spring. He should have been close to universally rostered coming off a good season at Triple-A that ended with 39.2 innings of a 2.72 ERA in the majors with the peripherals to match. I wasn't exactly excited about the prospect of starting him against the Dodgers for Monday's start, of course, but the fact that he came out of that one with five strikeouts over six shutout innings would seem to bode very well. He's got a deep arsenal that should help him avoid platoon concerns, and I think he just has a super strong feel for pitching. He should be universally rostered. 

Kyle Harrison, SP, Brewers (31%) – I would actually prioritize Harrison over Soroka if you're looking for a starter right now. I think the upside is probably a smidge higher here, and he was nearly as good as Soroka. And we did get some new stuff to point to here, as he did throw that new changeup, 11 times, generating a couple of whiffs on it over seven swings. But the fastballs were the stars of the show here, as he garnered 14 whiffs on 34 swings between the four-seamer and sinker. The velocity was up a bit across the board, but not dramatically so, and the movement profile was also slightly better. Add it all up, and Harrison didn't look like an especially different pitcher than he has in the past, but maybe he was never all that far off – especially when the fastball is sitting 95 like it is now. The Brewers have a well-earned reputation for pitching development, and maybe they've just finished off Harrison's? 

Landen Roupp, SP, Giants (9%) – I've never been a big believer in Roupp's, mostly for one simple reason: He relies way too much on his big, loopy curveball, a pitch that is basically impossible to command consistently when you're throwing it 40% of the time. Well, he didn't throw it nearly that often Monday, and his newly expanded arsenal looked solid, as he racked up three or more whiffs each on his sinker, cutter, curveball, and changeup. "Throw your best pitch less often" isn't necessarily the kind of advice we typically expect to work for young pitchers, and I'm skeptical that this will prove sustainable for Roupp. But, like with McCullers, I'm at least open to the possibility that these tweaks will make a real difference. 

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Angels (59%) – It's a lot easier to talk about changes with pitchers than hitters, but there is one place you can look at changes in a small sample with hitters: Bat speed. Schanuel has been up in the early going, and while it's a very small sample size that could disappear with a few more reps, we know it was something he worked on this offseason, so it's worth keeping an eye on here. He's off to a hot start, going 7 for 20 with a couple of homers in his first five games after Monday's two-hit effort, and he has done that while striking out just four times in 24 trips to the plate. It's too early to say if Schanuel has changed for good, but it's worth keeping an eye on. 

TJ Rumfield, 1B, Rockies (23%) – Rumfield has some Ben Rice in him. No, I'm not saying he's that good. But he was an older prospect in the Yankees system who consistently put up big numbers, but was never taken seriously by prospect folks. I don't think Rumfield is as good as Rice – even in Triple-A, he never hit the ball as hard as Rice did – but he consistently showed a strong approach at the plate (he hasn't had a strikeout rate above 20% at any level since 2023), and that hit tool could work out very well at Coors Field. There probably isn't a ton of upside here, but I could see a 15-homer, .280 average outcome in a best-case scenario here, which would make Rumfield useful in categories leagues, at least. 

Paul Sewald, RP, Diamondbacks (42%) – When it came time for the first save of the season for the Diamondbacks, it was Sewald who got the call in the ninth inning. Meanwhile, his expected primary competition for the role, Kevin Ginkel, came into the game in the sixth inning. That's no guarantee Sewald will remain in the role – he struggled with injuries over the past two seasons and had an ERA over 4.00 both years – but his velocity is back to where it was in 2023, when he was very good, at least. If you're desperate for saves, give Sewald a look. 

Monday's standouts

Griffin Jax, RP, Rays – We'll stick a reliever unusually high here because of Jax's unusual (and alarming, frankly) usage to date. While most expected the Rays to use a committee, the expectation was that Jax would lead the committee at least. Well, Jax's first appearance of the season came in the sixth inning on Opening Day, and while he did pitch in the 10th with a one-run lead in his next outing, on Monday, he came in to face the bottom of the order in the seventh inning against the Brewers. I still suspect he'll end up being the first option for saves in this bullpen; he certainly hasn't been so far. You can't rely on Jax the way you might have hoped coming into the season. 

Chase Burns, Reds vs. PIT: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Burns looked about as expected, which is noteworthy given the concerns that cropped up this spring. He was limited to 78 pitches over his five innings, and there might be some early hooks here in the season's first month. But you'll take seven strikeouts and five shutout innings in the "ramp-up" phase of the season. He's awesome. 

Ranger Suarez, Red Sox @HOU: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Suarez has looked a bit shaky in his first couple of outings with the Red Sox, though that obviously included the spring before Monday. This wasn't a great outing, and it's always concerning to see Suarez struggle, given how slim his margin for error has been in the past. But I have confidence he'll figure it out, and this will end up being just a bump in the road. 

Kris Bubic, Royals vs. MIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Watching the start, Bubic didn't have great command, but we'll take the final line like this on a day when he wasn't at his best. He had 12 whiffs on 75 pitches, led by the changeup, and while the poor Twins lineup surely helped, Bubic figures to tighten up the command and look better the next time around. I remain bullish on him in the long run. 

Edward Cabrera, Cubs vs. LAA: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Cabrera prioritized his fastball a little more in this one than he did last season, and that really isn't something we want to see – despite near-elite velocity, Cabrera has just never had a great feel for the straight stuff, and the results have improved as he has de-emphasized it over the years. It wasn't a huge change, and the results were still solid enough that I don't want this to come off too negative. I have my concerns about Cabrera holding up over a full season, but with the Cubs defense behind him, I do expect Cabrera to be pretty solid this season as long as he stays on the mound. 

Ryan Weathers, Yankees @SEA: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Weathers mostly cruised through the first four innings before running into some trouble in the fifth, which is understandable in the first start of the season. Eventually, he'll have to pitch effectively while throwing more than 77 pitches, and I do have some real concerns about that given his injury history. But the stuff looked excellent in this one, and we'll give him a pass for the late fade (for now). 

Cody Ponce, Blue Jays vs. COL: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Aw, this one was a bummer. Ponce stepped awkwardly, trying to field a grounder and hurt his knee, ultimately needing to be carted off the field in his return to a major-league mound. We'll find out more in the coming days, but it's hard to imagine he won't at least need an IL stint after this one. 

Jacob Lopez, Athletics @ATL: 4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 0 K – Lopez just never had it in this one – he needed 41 pitches to get through the first inning and threw first-pitch strikes to just eight of 22 hitters he faced. And then it got worse, as his velocity faded by multiple ticks in the third and fourth innings. Not what we wanted to see from a guy whose 2025 ended with an elbow injury. I'm willing to give Lopez another look to see if he can right the ship, but I'd also be perfectly happy to drop him for Messick or Harrison. 

Roki Sasaki, Dodgers vs. CLE: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I thought Craig Goldstein of BaseballProspectus.com put it well last night: "[I] don't really know what to do with the number of non-competitive pitches in what was basically a best-case scenario Roki start." Sasaki had no feel for the splitter in this one and had to gut it out with his fastball and slider, and the results were decent enough … but he missed his spots by huge margins all night long, even with his four-seamer, and he needed 78 pitches to get through his four innings of work. I don't think Sasaki is a viable starting pitcher at the major-league level, and I'd be happy to drop him for anyone who looks viable right now. If you can't bring yourself to do that, I understand, but just know this: You're holding on to Sasaki entirely because of name value, because we haven't seen anything in his year-plus in the majors to suggest there's much to get excited about here. 

Bryce Elder, Braves vs. ATH: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – The thing about bad pitchers is, even they'll have good starts occasionally. Elder has a legitimately solid slider, and we saw him ride that to a handful of useful outings even amid an overall pretty terrible season. He's switched some things up in the early going, including a new cutter he threw seven times. I chalk this one up to facing an A's lineup that hasn't locked in yet. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs – The results haven't been incredible so far, as Crow-Armstrong has just five singles through his first four games. But here's what I want to highlight: His average bat speed is up from 72.7 mph to 76.2 in the early going, and bat speed is one of those stats that can stabilize early on. Even in this small sample, there might be something here to get even more excited about. 

Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays – Diaz spent his offseason trying to get back to the swing he had in 2023, when he won the AL batting title, and the early results speak for themselves – he homered to lead off Monday's start and is now 11 for 20 to open the season with just two strikeouts in 21 trips to the plate. It's extremely early, and Diaz is a good hitter who will have stretches like this even if nothing has changed, so I'm not ready to change how I view Diaz. But I thought it was worth noting! 

News and notes

In light of the Ponce injury, here's some good news for the Blue Jays: Shane Bieber will throw off a mound on Saturday, his first time throwing off a mound since he was shut down with forearm fatigue. 

More good news: Trey Yesavage will throw a simulated game on Friday. The plan is for him to get up to 45 pitches, and I still think we'll see him in the majors in April, and you'll be happy you drafted him by May 1. 

Spencer Strider will travel with the Braves on their road trip, but he remains without a timetable to begin a rehab assignment. He's out with that oblique injury.

Speaking of the Braves, they optioned Didier Fuentes to Triple-A. This was always the plan, though I did expect him to make more than one appearance out of the bullpen before they sent him down. I think there's a pretty good chance we see him back in the majors before the end of April, and I'd try to keep Fuentes stashed if I can. 

Nick Lodolo will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A on Thursday as he works his way back from a blister. He might be back next week. 

Carlos Estevez was unavailable Monday as he still has a boot on his left foot. An IL stint is still possible. 

Tanner Bibee has been cleared to start Tuesday against the Dodgers. He left on Opening Day with a shoulder injury, and while it's good to see him bounce back this quickly, I would not want to trust him against this matchup. 

Jorge Polanco has been dealing with a sore Achilles but feels good enough to play as the team's DH, at least. It'll take a little while longer for him to gain first base eligibility, though you should probably just be using him at second base anyway. 

Pavin Smith was placed on the IL with left elbow inflammation. The team promoted infield prospect Jose Fernandez, who had a strong spring. A name to watch in NL-only leagues for now. 

Sean Murphy could begin a rehab assignment at High-A later this week. He's working his way back from hip surgery and will likely need multiple weeks to get up to speed. 

Well, that was fast. The Marlins optioned Deyvison De Los Santos back to the minors.

The Brewers signed Cooper Pratt to an eight-year extension worth more than $50 million. The 21-year-old had just a .691 OPS in Double-A last season but is considered a very strong shortstop defender with plus raw pop. It's a weird move for a player who doesn't seem all that close to the majors – he has played less than a week at Triple-A – but if he just becomes a Joey Ortiz type, the deal is probably fine. 

Speaking of the Brewers, they acquired OF Luis Matos from the Giants after he was recently designated for assignment. 

Gerrit Colle will toss a one-inning live BP in a couple of days. He could be back from Tommy John surgery in April, though May seems more likely. 

Carlos Rodon threw a 50-pitch batting practice on Sunday and is likely at least a few weeks ahead of Cole as he returns from a clean-up procedure in his elbow. 

Anthony Volpe is expected to face live pitching later in the week. He's working his way back from October labrum surgery in his shoulder and probably needs at least another month from this point before he'll be ready and get back to his pre-injury form.