Diminished stockpiles may force US, allies to take more risks to conserve interceptors: Analysis

Defense Diminished stockpiles may force US, allies to take more risks to conserve interceptors: Analysis Comments: by Ellen Mitchell - 07/29/26 1:36 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Ellen Mitchell - 07/29/26 1:36 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran has expended more of America’s already dwindling stockpiles of advanced missile interceptors, potentially putting the country’s forces at risk should the Trump administration return to full-scale war, according to a new analysis.

The number of Patriot interceptors, which was at 2,330 before the war, was more than halved by the time Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire in April but was brought even lower in recent fighting. The stockpile is now estimated to comprise between 759 and 827 interceptors, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed in an analysis based on budget documents and other publicly released information.

The number of THAAD interceptors, meanwhile, was only at 452 before the war but now is between 234 and 278, a 38 percent hit.

The shrinking inventories “may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions,” according to the CSIS analysis released Monday.

“There are no good alternatives to Patriot and THAAD for ballistic missile defense,” the analysts wrote. “Navy ships, with Standard Missiles that can intercept such threats, generally are too far away.”

U.S. missiles and interceptors remain critical to keeping forces safe as the Iran war is now in its sixth month with no end in sight. But the state of America’s munitions stockpiles has repeatedly been questioned, with a recent report from NBC News revealing that military commanders since the start of the conflict have decided to let incoming Iranian drones and missiles through defenses if they’re assessed to cause no damage to U.S. troops, facilities or allies in the Middle East, saving the valuable interceptors.

But that raises the risk of Iranian attacks getting through and harming troops. In a July 17 strike, three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan. A fourth American soldier died a day later in Iraq during a controlled detonation of an Iranian drone. At least 18 service members in total have been killed in the conflict.

Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has told President Trump that America’s shrinking munitions stockpiles could have an impact on military operations in Iran, The Associated Press reported.

Administration officials for months have maintained that Washington has what it needs for the war even as they press Congress for tens of billions of dollars to refill expended missiles and interceptors. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week testified before lawmakers that the war has cost an estimated $37.5 billion.

“America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing,” Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, told the AP. “We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”