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Democrats’ chances of taking back control of the Senate have suffered with recent developments in Maine and Michigan, complicating their chances of winning the two critical battlegrounds.
The implosion of Graham Platner’s campaign in Maine has left Democrats scrambling for an opponent to challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Susan Collins less than four months out from Election Day.
While some Democratic strategists think the party is better off with Platner out of the race, the spectacular collapse of his campaign and the lack of consensus within the party over who should take his place creates unnecessary political headwinds for the party.
Some experts say Democrats are less likely to win back the majority because of the chaos in Maine.
“In general, it’s not good news for the Democrats. Not good news that so many prominent Democrats endorsed the dropout and not such good news — probably — about how they’re going to respond to news in the next few days. It’s just bad news for the party,” said Steven S. Smith, a professor of political science at Arizona State University who follows the Senate.
Smith said Democrats were “flirting with a 50-50 chance of regaining the Senate” and now probably have less than a 50-50 chance going forward.
Even so, Smith said the good news for Democrats is that “it’s relatively early, it is the middle of the summer, not that many people are paying attention to politics.”
“The major consideration is who’s the next nominee and if there’s lots of good public relations that comes from that, the Democrats can turn this around,” he said.
Democrats would need a net pickup of four Senate seats in November to recapture the Senate majority.
Many political handicappers think Democrats have a better chance of winning control of the House, but a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) argued that Democrats still have an excellent chance to defeat Collins with another candidate.
“Susan Collins has never been more vulnerable, and Mainers are eager to vote her out after she’s voted with Trump 96 percent of the time, voted to confirm the justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, and spent nearly 30 years in Washington selling out to special interests,” the DSCC spokesperson said.
But Platner took a shot at Democratic leaders on Wednesday night by accusing them of pushing him out of the race before he had a full chance to defend himself from the accusation that he raped a woman he was dating in 2021.
Platner strongly denied the charge but said he would drop out “because of the structures that are being taken away from us by those in power.”
In a video message to supporters, he said the “corporate media system and the political establishment got to act as judge, jury and executioner.”
David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said bad blood between Platner and the Democratic establishment could make it tougher to unify the party ahead of the fall election.
“He had captured the imagination of Maine voters, some of whom may not vote in November because they’ll take the position of Platner or bust,” Paleologos said.
Others “will rotate” to a new candidate, he added.
Paleologos said that Platner’s statements slamming “those in power” and “the political establishment” will “do the opposite” of coalescing voters behind a new candidate.
“If you’re a progressive activist, in your mind there is very little difference between a Republican and a corporate Democrat,” he said. “They’re both viewed as entrenched party people.”
Meanwhile in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), has opened up a lead in the polls over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who is backed by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and viewed by party leaders in Washington as the better candidate in a general election.
Platner’s collapse in Maine could steer progressive donors to funnel their money to El-Sayed, who now emerges as the most prominent Senate candidate aligned with the democratic socialist movement.
El-Sayed has used the same political strategy firm, Fight Agency, as Platner and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D).
El-Sayed, a former public health director, says he is running against both parties and called for Platner to drop out of the Maine Senate race after his opponent, Stevens, criticized him for not doing so.
Democratic leaders in Washington, such as Schumer, are concerned about El-Sayed’s electability in a general election match-up with former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in the 2024 Senate race.
Establishment Democrats such as former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and former Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lon Johnson have endorsed Stevens for that reason.
“There is real concern that Abdul would not be able to beat Rogers and then potentially lose us a majority possibility in the Senate,” Johnson told The Washington Post last month.
The difficulties Democrats face in Maine and Michigan are tempered by the strong progress Democratic candidates are showing in three Republican-leaning battlegrounds: Ohio, Iowa and Texas.
A Fox News poll last week showed Democratic Senate nominee state Rep. Josh Turek leading GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson by four points — 50 percent to 46 percent — in Iowa. The survey also showed that Iowans view Trump negatively by 13 points, giving him a 42 percent favorable rating and 55 percent unfavorable rating.
Another Fox News poll last month showed former Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senate nominee, leading incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted by 8 points — 53 percent to 45 percent — in Ohio.
In Texas, a New York Times/Siena poll of 656 likely voters conducted from June 19-27 found Democrat state Rep. James Talarico tied with Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told The Sean Hannity Show that Talarico has a “a real chance of beating Paxton.”
“I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close. I think we’re going to win, I think we’re going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a one- or two-point race,” Cruz told Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who guest hosted the radio show.
Democrats suffered another setback last week when the Supreme Court struck down rules limiting the ability of individual candidates to cooperate their spending with national political parties.
The ruling could wipe out the significance of Democratic candidates’ small-dollar fundraising advantage in key Senate battlegrounds such as Georgia and North Carolina.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina, told MS Now’s Chris Hayes that the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates will have a significant impact on his race.
“Probably it will affect my race more than any others in that it empowers political parties, it empowers wealthy people,” he said, adding that his opponent Michael Whatley was the chair of the Republican National Committee “so he has access to all of that.”
Cooper warned the decision could wipe out the small-dollar fundraising advantage that Democratic candidates have built up in recent years.
“I think this decision was the worst campaign finance decision since Citizens United, because it allows virtually unlimited spending with these joint committees that they set up, that they can run the money through parties. And it really takes away the power from the small donors,” he said.
Add as preferred source on Google Tags Bernie Sanders Chuck Schumer Debbie Stabenow Elissa Slotkin Haley Stevens Mike Rogers Susan Collins Zohran MamdaniCopyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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