Game-changing events could reset the 2028 Republican ‘The Apprentice’ nomination

Opinion>Opinions - Campaign The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill Game-changing events could reset the 2028 Republican ‘The Apprentice’ nomination Comments: by Myra Adams, opinion contributor - 07/10/26 7:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied by Myra Adams, opinion contributor - 07/10/26 7:00 AM ET Comments: Link copied

FILE – This combination of photos shows Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and Vice President JD Vance, right, on Jan. 21, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

The official start of the 2028 presidential election cycle is just four months away. Yet the race for the Republican nomination already feels stale and boring with only two choices: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

This week, insider reports say Trump is favoring Vance, though neither is very popular.

Last month, two national polls showed Vance leading Rubio, 42 percent to 15 percent, among Republican primary voters. An end-of-June poll found Vance at 35.4 percent, compared with Rubio’s 16.5 percent. No other prospective primary candidates reached double digits.

Equally revealing was a mid-June Navigator Research study asking registered voters about “favorability.” Vance earned 52 percent unfavorable, compared to Rubio’s 40 percent. Although Trump stood at 58 percent unfavorable, given his dominance over the Republican Party and the MAGA voter base, expect the president to play a leading role in determining the unlucky winner of the first post-Trump-era GOP nomination.

“Unlucky” because Trump will gleefully, strategically, and artfully create situations that test Vance’s and Rubio’s loyalty to him and his policies. Inevitably, watch them dodge the roadblocks and hand grenades Trump throws into the primary race. Trump is already doing that, as a Hill headline last month read, “Trump jokes he’ll blame Vance if Iran deal doesn’t work out.”

In May, Vance defended Trump’s proclivity for fostering a succession rivalry between Rubio and himself, saying, “I just don’t think it sounds like the President of the United States to have a televised competition for who would succeed him as his apprentice.” Really? Trump relishes choosing his successor like “The Apprentice” show on steroids. Trump’s 2028 power move is whether he endorses Vance, Rubio or a team ticket. The timing of his action or inaction will shape the primary playbook.

The core problem is Trump’s addiction to power and his reluctance to surrender it as required by law. Therefore, his successor must mirror him — worthy, strong, and tough, never showing weakness. Ironically, Trump’s perennial weakness is his job approval rating, which has long hovered at or slightly below 40 percent, a level that history shows can be problematic. In November 1988, George H.W. Bush became the last vice president to win a so-called “third term” as President Ronald Reagan’s successor. The September and October 1988 Gallup polls averaged Reagan’s job approval at 52.5 percent.

Thus, 40 years later, the nominee tasked with winning Trump’s third term will need divine intervention. Because politics is unpredictable (ask Kamala Harris), the game-changing scenarios cited below could upend this “predictable” Republican nomination race, or non-race if Trump crowns Vance.

In one scenario, Vance becomes the 48th president before the November 2028 election. (No speculation about how.) Could President Vance leverage his status as the world’s most powerful leader to win a four-year term? History lesson: In 1976, an unelected Republican, President Gerald Ford, lost the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, a little-known former Democratic governor from Georgia. Voters wanted an end to the Nixon-Ford era.

Vance would select a vice president and name that person as his 2028 running mate. (But two different people could fill those two slots. In 1974, after President Nixon’s resignation, Ford selected Nelson Rockefeller as his vice president. Then, in 1976, Ford chose Kansas Sen. Robert Dole as his running mate.)

Returning to Vance, during the primary season, he could choose Donald Trump Jr. as his running mate in exchange for a secret early endorsement from President Trump. With Team Trump, anything is possible!

But Vance might also decline to run for president, to protect his wife and young children from a brutal campaign. Truthfully, the 1984-born Vance would rather wait for a presidential cycle when Trump does not dominate.

Perhaps in 2027, Marco Rubio will drop a bombshell by resigning from the Trump administration to run for president. Distancing himself from Trump, Rubio could pursue his political dream of becoming the first Hispanic president, a goal he failed to achieve in 2016.

What if the midterm elections are a disaster for the Republicans, leaving Trump acting more erratically as a weakened “lame duck?”Vance or Rubio, whether separately or as a team, would then be less palatable to Republican primary voters and even less popular among the majority of the general electorate that wants the Trump era to end.

The above scenario could usher in a host of primary candidates not tied to Trump. These wannabe presidents must appeal to loyal MAGA voters while distancing themselves from the president. Also, with much fanfare, a billionaire or celebrity enters the race.

Today’s conventional assumption that the 2028 Republican presidential ticket will include Vance, Rubio, or both is foolhardy speculation so early in a long presidential cycle. By contrast, no speculation is needed about the 80-year-old former “Apprentice” star, who is trying to turn the race to succeed him into a kingmaker game show he produces and stars in until the people say, “You’re fired!”

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008. Read more from her archive at The Hill.