Cook Political Report shifts 7 House races toward Democrats

Campaign Cook Political Report shifts 7 House races toward Democrats Comments: by Max Rego - 06/18/26 5:22 PM ET Comments: Link copied by Max Rego - 06/18/26 5:22 PM ET Comments: Link copied

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The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday moved seven House races toward Democrats, as the minority party looks to retake control of the lower chamber this November.

Erin Covey, the House editor for the report, wrote that despite the GOP appearing to benefit from a nationwide redistricting battle, Democrats “remain in a strong position to regain control of the House, with the battlefield continuing to shift in their favor as the political environment further deteriorates for the GOP.”

Covey added, “Districts that once appeared to be relatively safe for Republicans look increasingly competitive.”

Six of the seven seats are held by Republicans, with the lone exception being the one in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures. A first-term lawmaker, Figures has an uphill reelection battle after state lawmakers in Alabama redrew his district to make it more GOP-friendly.

The Cook Political Report moved Figures’s race from solidly to likely in the Republican camp, putting it two slots from “toss up” territory.

Four of the other six races feature Republicans going for reelection: Reps. Chuck Edwards (N.C.), Brad Finstad (Minn.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.) and Max Miller (Ohio). The Cook Political Report shifted those races from likely to lean Republican, solidly to likely Republican, likely to lean Republican and solidly to likely Republican, respectively.

Two seats, meanwhile, will be held by new representatives next January: Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, held by GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson; and South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, held by GOP Rep. Nancy Mace.

Hinson is the GOP nominee to succeed outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), while Mace finished fifth in the Republican gubernatorial primary in South Carolina last week.

The Cook Political Report moved Hinson’s seat from likely to lean Republican, after former state Rep. Joe Mitchell won the GOP primary in the race to succeed Hinson earlier this month.

Mace’s seat, on the other hand, went from solidly to likely in the Republican camp; Charleston County Councilmember Jenny Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith will face off in the GOP runoff in the district on June 23.

Republicans hold a 218-212 edge in the lower chamber, while independent Rep. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) caucuses with the GOP. Four seats are unoccupied, and three of which were held by Democrats.

If special elections resulted in both parties holding serve in those four districts, Republicans would effectively have a 220-215 edge. That would require Democrats to flip three seats in November to retake the majority after two straight Congresses in the minority.

Just 18 of the 435 House races are in the “toss up” category, according to Cook Political Report. Fourteen of those seats are held by Republicans.