We are witnessing an unprecedentedly wild and unpredictable college football season.
Get used to it. This is the new normal.
In the past three weeks alone, four teams ranked top two in the AP Top 25 poll have fallen for the first time in 19 years, leaving only three undefeated FBS teams -- Miami, UCLA and Utah. That's the lowest count of unbeatens at this point in a season since 1977.
Call it parity. Label it a letdown. Whatever you do, at least realize college football isn't what it was a few years ago. A weekend expected to be quiet and ordinary instead fell apart -- again. Four of the eight top 12 teams who played Saturday lost. The week prior, five of the top seven teams lost for the first time ever. Teams are thin and they're tired.
It is easy to attribute this widespread inconsistency to NIL and the transfer portal, which have diluted traditional powerhouses and redistributed top-tier talent across college football. That's accurate, but measuring its precise impact game by game in a spreadsheet is hard, and fully explaining it in a Sunday morning column is difficult. But as these upsets and letdowns keep piling up, the trend is now undeniable eight weeks into the season (and two years into the revenue-sharing era).
Seven teams have fallen one week after knocking off a top-10 opponent. Three of them joined that list on Saturday: Auburn, BYU and Tennessee. Remarkably, six of those seven teams belong to the SEC (more on that later).
BYU suffered the week's most shocking loss, a 39-31 double-overtime thriller at UCF. "That's the weirdest ending to a game I've ever seen," UCF coach Scott Frost said afterward.
If any figure encapsulates this era of unpredictable chaos, it's Frost. He lost 17 straight against ranked opponents, dating back to his disastrous tenure at Nebraska. His last ranked win came at the end of his initial stint with UCF in the 2018 Peach Bowl, which led the school's administrators to claim a national championship.
And here's Frost today, smiling amid the chaos, with UCF's first win against a top-5 team in history.
No conference is immune to parity now, especially the once-almighty SEC. Five SEC teams ranked in the top 12 have lost over the last two weeks. Is the SEC that tough? Yes and no. This widespread shift is impossible to ignore, and even the SEC feels the impact after years of financial dominance, as revenue sharing, NIL deals and the transfer portal rebalance college athletics.
Folks, college football is wilder than ever. The SEC is tougher than ever -- and yet not as strong as it used to be. The same goes for the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the ACC. Yesterday's elite teams have declined sharply, leading us down this unexpected road and, soon, to a 24-team playoff. The days of eight teams that can build two- and three-deep rosters of monsters with 30-plus future NFL players are over.
As grueling schedules take their toll, reduced roster depth inevitably leads to more errors and fewer opportunities to recover week after week. The result is this recent wave of unexpected outcomes, fueled by physical exhaustion, costly mental mistakes and a growing list of injuries.
Virtually no team is immune to defeat this year. With only three programs still undefeated through the grueling stretch, it seems only a matter of time before they fall, too.
Run the dang ball, Longhorns
It's not yet Halloween, but Arch Manning's Jekyll-and-Hyde performances continued Saturday night.
The Texas quarterback had a strong first half in the 34-27 win over No. 7 Ole Miss, but struggled in the third quarter and finished with three turnovers, including a strip-sack Ole Miss recovered for a touchdown.
Deep in that mixed bag, however, a new and bright toy emerged for the Longhorns: a strong running game. Call me crazy, but Steve Sarkisian might have something to build on as the Longhorns try to get into the CFP.
The Longhorns ran for 121 yards in the decisive fourth quarter, retook the lead and built it back to double digits as Raleek Brown dominated, finishing with 157 yards on 23 carries. His 47-yard burst on the final touchdown drive gave the Longhorns the boost they needed.
Too often Texas has ditched the running backs in favor of Manning's arm this season. While inconsistent, the offensive line can dominate in bursts, making the ground attack far more effective than passing behind it with an unpredictable quarterback.
Maybe Sark figured that out Saturday. Texas ran the ball 42 times and threw 30. Texas entered the week ranked 100th in the country, averaging only 136 rushing yards per game, a figure Brown eclipsed by himself against the Rebels.
Something's brewing for Sark, and he needs to take advantage. Couple a strong running game with Will Muschamp's elite defense, and a playoff run might be in the cards even as the injuries pile up to the likes of future first-round picks Colin Simmons, Trevor Goosby and Cam Coleman.
Don't fire Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Welcome to Cocktober. If you're unfamiliar, October is when the South Carolina Gamecocks mess up top-20 teams' seasons before Halloween hits the calendar.
Shane Beamer's crew is up to their old tricks again. They upset No. 11 Tennessee 27-24 on a walk-off, 48-yard field goal Saturday. Beamer was on the hot seat just three weeks ago, but South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC) has beaten ranked teams back-to-back for only the fifth time in school history. The common thread is Beamer. He's been the head coach for three of those five occurrences (2022, 2024 and 2026).
Fan support for a coach ticks down every season. In his sixth year, Beamer's support has waned, but he remains the constant guiding force that has the Gamecocks punching above their weight class.
Firing Beamer is unlikely to transform the Gamecocks into an immediate contender. Far too many university boards, athletic directors, and boosters fall into the trap of thinking they can steer a football program to glory, yet their strategy rarely extends beyond throwing massive contracts at whichever trendy candidate everyone can agree on.
South Carolina shouldn't fall into the delusion that replicating Curt Cignetti's Indiana model is a guaranteed fix. Several teams, including in the SEC, have tried that exact quick-turnaround strategy, only to watch it crumble in Year 1.
Texas Tech's retribution denied as CFP path narrows
Last spring, Texas Tech didn't see eye to eye with its Big 12 brethren.
The Red Raiders were in the NCAA's crosshairs amid the gambling scandal surrounding quarterback Brendan Sorsby, but Tech was determined to push back. Sorsby filed a lawsuit against the NCAA, and the Big 12 later threatened Tech in turn as the school was determined to play Sorsby in the fall. Meanwhile, Tech supporters directed their frustration at Cincinnati, the program Sorsby left just months earlier without a hint of gambling allegations following him to Lubbock.
Cody Campbell, the billionaire booster and chairman of Tech's Board of Regents, spearheaded the response. Just when all seemed quiet this summer, it reemerged with the release of a documentary on Tech before the season.
"We're not going to forget about that, and I don't think [Cincinnati] will forget about it either when we're up by 40 and still throwing the ball in the fourth quarter," Campbell said on The Program: Texas Tech, a Paramount+ documentary. "That's where retribution will come."
Instead of delivering retribution, Texas Tech took the hit as Cincinnati handed it a 37-24 defeat in a game that was more decisive than the scoreboard showed.
The Bearcats maintained a double-digit cushion for much of the afternoon, driven by Cole Tabb's 173-yard rushing performance. Two turnovers from quarterback Will Hammond — who was slated to serve as Brendan Sorsby's backup for Tech this season — directly gifted Cincinnati 10 points.
"There is no excuse or reason to lose a game like this," Campbell said on X after the loss. "We have to be better."
As Georgia's Kirby Smart says, humility is a week away. Tech still has a path to the CFP, but it may now rely on a win in the Big 12 Championship in December.
Michigan has a coaching problem
Most programs would be happy forcing the defending national champions into overtime. That shouldn't be the case today at Michigan, where the Wolverines blew several opportunities to upset Indiana in regulation and then stubbed their toe again in overtime to lose 13–6.
It's hard to believe Michigan's offense is actually worse than it was a season ago. They blamed quarterback Bryce Underwood in previous weeks, and things did seem better with Tommy Carr at the controls Saturday, but against a great defense like Bryant Haines' Indiana unit, Michigan took another step back.
Michigan averaged just 1.4 yards per rush, and the six points are its fewest in a home game since 2007; Indiana's road win at Michigan, the program's first in Ann Arbor since 1967, tied for its lowest-scoring victory since 2000.
The Wolverines entered Saturday ranked 125th in total offense and 106th in scoring. They'll tumble today. They managed only 224 yards and were 6-for-20 on third-down conversions.
Considering offensive coordinator Jason Beck previously revitalized Utah's attack into a top-five, run-first powerhouse, Michigan's offensive collapse feels almost unfathomable. Kyle Whittingham was always a stopgap hire, but that seems increasingly untenable. Staff changes, big or small, seem inevitable in Ann Arbor.
Don't sell Malachi Toney short in the Heisman race
The sport has fallen in love with the idea of Jeremiah Smith winning the Heisman Trophy. But what happens if Julian Sayin doesn't return at quarterback, and Ohio State struggles to get the ball to Smith?
Miami sophomore receiver Malachi Toney might step in and take over the voters' typecast role assigned to Smith. Voters clearly want to crown someone other than a quarterback as the Heisman winner.
Toney hasn't disappointed this season, and he broke more records Saturday in a 52-23 demolition of Pitt. He broke or tied Miami's records for receptions (16) and touchdown catches (three) in a single game. He finished with 194 receiving yards and three scores.
"There's not a guy in the country that's more dependable than Malachi Toney," Miami coach Mario Cristobal said Saturday.
Here's to Smith not slowing down, but I'm warming up to the theory that Toney will hoist the trophy. On Saturday, he became the first player on a 7-0 team since Alabama's DeVonta Smith to reach 900-plus receiving yards and 10-plus touchdowns.
DeVonta Smith went on to win the Heisman Trophy and a national title in 2020.
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