The Big 12 has taken a wrecking ball to its College Football Playoff positioning after two of the league's three unbeatens went down on Saturday, with Utah climbing through the rubble as its current leader. Our updated bowl and CFP projections reflect that carnage, with BYU and Texas Tech absorbing losses that complicate an already crowded race for at-large hopefuls.
With the addition of the San Juan Bowl, there are now 84 teams needed to fill every matchup this postseason, which includes the CFP. The final month of the campaign is approaching, and our predictions are coming into focus with the CFP Selection Committee's first set of rankings set to release on Nov. 3.
There's a major shakeup in the latest projections, including several teams falling out of the CFP bracket.
Cricket Celebration
Projection: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
San Juan Bowl
Projection: Florida State vs. Georgia State
The Seminoles continue to fight for Mike Norvell despite job pressure you can almost feel it's so intense. After last week's disputed loss at Miami ended on a controversial Hail Mary that was ruled an interception, Florida State used its open date to focus on fixing defense issues before its home bout with Clemson on Halloween in Tallahassee. Win that one and the Seminoles move to 4-4 overall, needing two more wins to reach bowl eligibility.
Salute to Veterans
Projection: Buffalo vs. Louisiana
Frisco Football Classic
Projection: Tulane vs. San Diego State
Boca Raton
Projection: Western Michigan vs. Appalachian State
Courtesy of four field goals from James London, including the game-winner in overtime, the Mountaineers took out previously unbeaten JMU on Thursday night for the biggest win in the Sun Belt this season. That opens a direct path to the CFP for Boise State in the Group of Six discussion, one that includes a handful of others.
Gasparilla
Projection: Duke vs. Mizzou
With a win next week against Boston College, the Blue Devils are bowl-eligible — and that's notable given a November slate that includes Miami, Clemson and Wake Forest the final three weeks of the campaign. Duke's 19-16 win at Virginia on Friday night came via running back Nate Sheppard's 28-yard touchdown toss to Brody Keefe on a trick play double pass with 1:14 left.
Myrtle Beach
Projection: South Alabama vs. Liberty
Puerto Rico
Projection: ECU vs. Western Kentucky
Potato
Projection: Air Force vs. Toledo
Cure
Projection: FIU vs. Louisiana Tech
Independence
Projection: West Virginia vs. California
New Orleans
Projection: James Madison vs. Jacksonville State
So much for the Group of Six's most direct path to the playoff. The Dukes are unbeaten no more after stumbling in overtime at Appalachian State, which was Mountaineers second-year coach Dowell Loggains' first signature win of his tenure. JMU tied the game with six seconds left in regulation and decided to kick the PAT to force overtime rather than try a two-point conversion to take the lead.
"We had the momentum, we had come back and tied it up," Dukes coach Billy Napier said. "That'll be one that I'll be thinking about for sure. But look, if you go for it (and) you don't get it, there'll be a lot of conversation about that too".
Poinsettia
Projection: Baylor vs. Oregon State
Armed Forces
Frisco Bowl
Projection: New Mexico vs. UTSA
Hawaii
Projection: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State
New Mexico
Projection: Texas State vs. UNLV
Mayo
Projection: North Carolina vs. Northwestern
The Tar Heels are flirting with disaster as far as bowl eligibility is concerned after losing to Syracuse at home, but there's still a couple of favorable matchups left for Bill Belichick's team (UConn, NC State) that should be enough. Northwestern has won four straight games since a close loss to Indiana and gets Oregon at Autzen Stadium in Week 9. From there, the Wildcats play Iowa and Ohio State before rounding out November with Minnesota and Illinois.
Pinstripe
Projection: Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh
68 Ventures
Projection: FAU vs. Eastern Michigan
Fenway
Projection: Virginia vs. USF
Cactus
Projection: Cincinnati vs. Michigan
The Bearcats could be the agent of chaos in the Big 12 moving forward after Saturday's win over Texas Tech. Scott Satterfield's team, with confidence, gets Utah and Houston over the next two games and travels to BYU in the regular-season finale that could have CFP implications for the Cougars. It's unfortunate the Bearcats already have two losses in league play, but they played with their hair on fire in Week 8.
Michigan hasn't solved its identity issues offensively and would've beaten Indiana at home and red-zone execution been more fluid with Tommy Carr at quarterback. Indiana only completed one pass after halftime before winning overtime, another tough-to-stomach loss for first-year coach Kyle Whittingham during a tumultuous season.
Birmingham
Projection: Boston College vs. Auburn
NC State was our previous projection here in Birmingham, but moves out of the bowl-eligible threshold this week in favor of Boston College following the Eagles' win at Georgia Tech. As for NC State, the Wolfpack fired veteran coach Dave Doeren on Saturday, less than 24 hours after Friday's unsettling loss at Stanford that pushed their record to 3-4 overall, with its lone Power Four win coming against Louisville.
Military
Projection: Louisville vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts
Projection: SMU vs. Texas Tech
Somebody has to get squeezed out of the CFP picture, and SMU and Texas Tech could find themselves sharing that frustration over a toasted pastry in Orlando. A potential Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup between top-20 teams would give this game considerable juice, even if both arrive believing their postseason invites should've been the CFP.
For the Mustangs, missing an at-large berth would invite another round of debate over the ACC's strength and how much respect its contenders receive nationally. Upcoming matchups in November against Notre Dame and Wake Forest will determine where SMU stands ahead of the final vote. Motivation would be the question here. Get both teams invested, however, and this has the makings of one of bowl season's most entertaining matchups.
Alamo
Projection: Houston vs. Oregon
Gator
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Shane Beamer against Virginia Tech in Jacksonville? The Gator Bowl would have its storyline ready on Selection Sunday before the coach pressers begin. South Carolina's coach grew up watching his father, Frank, turn the Hokies into a national power, and facing that same program for the second time as leader of the Gamecocks would be inviting. His second straight win over a top-20 team in Week 8 against Tennessee pumps renewed life into his tenure, one that was shaky last month after a 0-3 start to the SEC slate. LaNorris Sellers, Dylan Stewart and others have responded and have a chance to end the season inside the top 25 if they're able to get to win four of their last five.
The Hokies beat Clemson on Saturday night for the first time since 2007; kudos to James Franklin for getting to bowl eligibility in his first season at Virginia Tech. No turnovers and playing relatively clean football on the road often wins, and the Hokies found a way. The seven-game skid against the Tigers is over for a program on the come-up under its new coach.
Music City
Projection: Iowa vs. Alabama
So much for the Hawkeyes' dark horse CFP path. Saturday's loss at Minnesota virtually ends that threat. Too often this season, Iowa's offense hasn't generated enough consistency to thrive, and it finally came back to bite Kirk Ferentz's team. Winning out could strengthen their argument, which would include victories over nationally-ranked Northwestern and likely Wisconsin after the Badgers' win over USC, but that's no guarantee.
Alabama has no margin for error with four games left against LSU, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. Only one of those contests comes against a team that could boost the Crimson Tide's resume, which, at the moment, features only one victory over a top-25 opponent (Kentucky). If there's a logjam of SEC teams with the same record in early December, Alabama's at the bottom of that grouping if the Crimson Tide fail to beat LSU in Baton Rouge on Nov. 7.
ReliaQuest
Projection: Nebraska vs. Florida
Florida fans wouldn't need much convincing to make the trip from Gainesville to Tampa for a season-ending matchup with Nebraska. Two recognizable brands, a manageable drive and a chance to close the season against a quality Big Ten opponent is an appealing postseason assignment for the Gators, even if ambitions stretched beyond this destination after beating Ole Miss and climbing to No. 8 at one point. The Huskers have spent enough years watching meaningful postseason opportunities belong to somebody else, so this would be an acceptable post-Christmas destination for Rhule and staff.
Sun
Projection: Clemson vs. Washington
Las Vegas
Projection: Arizona vs. Tennessee
The Vols have no one to blame but themselves after falling out of this week's CFP projection after failing at South Carolina due to 12 penalties and faulty execution late. Leading 24-17 in the fourth quarter, Tennessee was stuffed on fourth-and-1, leading to the game-tying touchdown, and later coughed up a fumble to put the Gamecocks in game-winning field goal range. Three touchdowns were negated by flags for a squad coming off an emotional win over Alabama in Week 7. The path's clear to nine wins, but to guarantee a CFP appearance, Tennessee needs to win out. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the quarterback play to do so.
Texas
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Bedlam in Houston? Sign us up. Conference realignment took this matchup off the annual schedule, but the animosity didn't disappear with it. Neither fan base would treat this like the postseason exhibition that it is — bragging rights would be on the line. For the Sooners, losing to their former Big 12 rival would make for an uncomfortable offseason. For the Cowboys, beating Oklahoma to cap the first year under Eric Morris would be a substantial building block entering 2027.
Citrus
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
What happens if the Badgers win out and go 10-2, but fail to reach the Big Ten Championship Game and get passed over for both of the CFP's final at-large spots in favor of Notre Dame — a team Wisconsin lost to — and a nine-win SEC squad? That's a legitimate scenario following Saturday night's win over USC in Madison.
One of the teams that was hit with the largest downgrade this week, maybe it was simply the spot for Ole Miss, taking on a back-against-the-wall Texas squad. Credit to the Rebels for not giving up and eventually tying the game after being down three touchdowns early, but some questions we thought were answered about this defense reappeared on the Forty Acres. Ole Miss still has to play Georgia, Auburn, Oklahoma and Mississippi State and needs to go 4-0 to get in the CFP without worry.
First Responder
Projection: Iowa State vs. North Texas
Liberty
Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Three consecutive losses and an injured Kamario Taylor ahead of next weekend's game at Texas is deflating for the once nationally ranked Bulldogs, who now must beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee Tech over the final five games just to get to bowl eligibility (unless they take out the Longhorns, Auburn or Ole Miss). At this point, that feels unlikely with Mississippi State floundering down the stretch after the promising start.
Arizona
Holiday
Projection: Wake Forest vs. USC
It would cost USC nearly $70 million to rid itself of Lincoln Riley this season, but after Saturday night's loss at Wisconsin, it's going to be a serious challenge to reach the CFP with three top-15 opponents left to play. It was a frustrating performance for USC, whose seven points were the lowest of Riley's coaching career. How much would this team have left at the end of the campaign against a hungry, potential two-loss Wake Forest squad?
College Football Playoff
First round
Projection: (9) LSU at (8) BYU
We're calling it now — Alabama at LSU on Nov. 7 will be for a playoff spot in the SEC at-large conversation among various nine-win teams. The Tigers seem to have hit their second gear since the overtime loss at Kentucky and enter their open date in great shape. Lane Kiffin's team still needs to finish strong since there are three top-20 opponents to play, including two in Baton Rouge.
BYU's win over Notre Dame keeps the Cougars safe, for now, as an at-large selection even if they fail to win the Big 12 this season. That win looms large, especially if the Fighting Irish make the dance. The matchup at Utah on the same weekend LSU hosts Alabama will be dripping with intrigue coming out of the first CFP rankings.
Projection: (10) Texas at (7) Indiana
The Longhorns' dominant win over Ole Miss put this team back where they want to be, in control of their CFP destiny with five games to play, including two against ranked opponents (Mizzou, LSU). Shutting down Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was a top performance in Week 8 -- much of that credit going to Will Muschamp for having his defensive players ready to execute the game plan to near perfection.
As long as the Hoosiers go 3-1 over their final four games against Minnesota, USC, Washington and Purdue, they're in with 10 wins. Unlike last season, however, very few are going to be picking this team to advance deep into the postseason with Josh Hoover at quarterback. It was abundantly clear that Indiana was gun-shy to call anything downfield for Hoover in the second half of its win at Michigan. Curt Cignetti said after the game he considered benching Hoover for Grant Wilson at halftime, but let his starter finish it out.
Projection: (11) Notre Dame at (6) Kentucky
Kentucky woke up from an early 10-point deficit to erase Vanderbilt's upset bid and improve to 7-1, the SEC's best overall record entering the final weekend in October. Will Stein should be the frontrunner for college football's coach of the year based on the job he's done up to this point, which includes a win over LSU and one at Oklahoma.
If Notre Dame gets to 10 wins, the Fighting Irish are going to be the last team in the bracket. That's our projection right now, even if Miami wins in South Bend next month en route to top billing. SMU's continuing to win in the ACC helps, and the Mustangs should be ranked at 9-1 overall when they come to Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. There's going to be several nine-win SEC teams with better resumes upset that Notre Dame's top-12 CFP assurance is what gets this team in the mix.
Projection: (12) Boise State (5) UCLA
After JMU's first loss, the Broncos control their destiny in the Group of Six race. We had Oregon State in this spot last week under the belief the Beavers would beat Boise State on the blue turf later this season, but that thought process is admittedly wavering a bit. The analytics point to the Broncos being the safer pick at this point.
Defensive-minded under Bob Chesney, the Bruins continue to pummel the Big Ten into submission. Unbeaten through seven games, UCLA's winning without the sexy dynamic, and that might work down the stretch in the conference. USC in the finale on Nov. 28 is the only ranked opponent left on the slate. For now, we see UCLA finishing — at worst — second in the conference and getting an at-large allocation in the bracket.
Quarterfinals
PEACH BOWL — Projection: (9) LSU vs. (1) Miami
Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney look borderline unstoppable through eight weeks as the most lethal tandem in the country. Miami's been our projected No. 1 seed and lone expected unbeaten since the summer, and that hasn't changed, yet. The Hurricanes' trek to Notre Dame next month could change that.
COTTON BOWL — Projection: (10) Texas vs. (2) Georgia
Will the SEC's frontrunner please stand up? For now, we're giving that title to Kirby Smart's Bulldogs, as long as there's not another upset along the way. Georgia plays Florida next and still has to battle Ole Miss before a likely appearance in the conference championship game, which may be the last of its kind.
ROSE BOWL — Projection: (11) Notre Dame vs. (3) Utah
The Utes are the last remaining unbeaten in the Big 12 following an epic turnaround in Saturday's win over Houston after trailing 10-0 midway through the third quarter. Devon Dampier's 9-yard touchdown run with 2:09 remaining put the game out of reach, and now, Utah is in great shape toward getting to a top-4 seed.
FIESTA BOWL — Projection: (5) UCLA vs. (4) Ohio State
Another Big Ten elite with quarterback worries right now, the Buckeyes are likely without Julian Sayin for the rest of the season. That means freshman Luke Fahey is the starter indefinitely, which alters Ohio State's national championship hopes. While Ohio State has won five straight since a one-point loss at Texas in September, the Buckeyes don't have the juggernaut look this season like many of Ryan Day's teams have had, and still have to play USC, Northwestern and Nebraska, among others. By no means is Ohio State a lock to be the 4-seed, much less make the CFP unless it gets to 10 wins.
Semifinals
ORANGE BOWL — Projection: (1) Miami vs. (4) Ohio State
SUGAR BOWL — Projection: (2) Georgia vs. (11) Notre Dame
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