The preseason AP Top 25 poll was released on Monday, with the top of the rankings featuring very few surprises. As expected, Florida, Duke, Illinois and UConn occupied the top four spots in the poll. Those four represent the teams with the best odds to win the 2027 national title.
Outside of that, the rankings will surely fluctuate throughout the season. The main reason? Because at least a dozen of the teams ranked in the preseason poll have one or more players fighting for a fifth year of eligibility in the courts. In the case of Kansas, former Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn is seeking a sixth year of eligibility to play for the Jayhawks In 2026-27.
Kansas, ranked No. 17 in the preseason poll, is also hoping that Tre White and Melvin Coucil Jr. will be eligible.
AP Top 25 poll reactions: Michigan overrated; Kansas, UK underrated in preseason college basketball rankings Cameron Salerno
If those three players are cleared, it makes Kansas a clear-cut top 10 team. The same can be said about Texas Tech, ranked No. 19 in the first poll of the season. The Red Raiders are hoping Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell will be granted a fifth year. If those three players are ruled eligible, Texas Tech is the team that can challenge Arizona for the Big 12 title.
CBS Sports' Chris Hummer did these rankings earlier this year when the first college football poll of the season was released. Instead of ranking teams' chances to reach the College Football Playoff/win the national title, we are dividing it up by teams to reach the Final Four in Detroit.
Think of this as the criteria:
S: Legitimate national title favorite A: Can win it all if things break right B: Have roster questions, but are talented enough to reach the Final Four C: Second weekend team, with Final Four upside
S Tier
The teams: No. 1 Florida, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Illinois, No. 4 UConn
There is a clear top four heading into the 2026-27 season. Here is why each team is ranked in the S Tier to reach the Final Four/win the title:
- Florida: Best frontcourt in the country. Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon have played two seasons together, which resulted in a national title win in 2025 and back-to-back No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The Gators can wear down opponents over the course of a game because of their bruising frontcourt. Florida's guards will also be improved this season, with Boogie Fland and Urban Klavzar back and Denzel Aberdeen returning to the program after spending last season at Kentucky.
- Duke: Best depth in the country. Duke could legitimately field two Starting Fives because of how much talent is on the roster. John Blackwell is a preseason All-American, but there's a chance he won't be Duke's best player this season. That's because Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the potential No. 1 pick in the 2028 NBA Draft, already looks like a star. Year 2 breakouts of Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer should entrench Duke as the favorite alongside Florida.
- Illinois: Elite retention. Illinois is returning 65.4% of its scoring production from last season, which is tied for first with Michigan State among all Big Ten teams. Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell are gone, but David Mirković, Andrej Stojaković, Zvonimir Ivišić and Jake Davis will return. Illinois also added Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and five-star guard Quentin Coleman to one of the best rosters in the country. The Fighting Illini will be the Big Ten favorite.
- UConn: How can you count out the Huskies? After reaching the Final Four for the third time in four seasons, UConn returns one of the best backcourts in the country in Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins. Mullins, the hero of UConn's dramatic Elite Eight win over Duke, is a Year 2 breakout candidate and a potential first-round pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. The Huskies also added Duke transfer Nikolas Khamenia and Seton Hall transfer Na'Jai Hines to sure up the frontcourt.
A Tier
The teams: No. 5 Arizona, No. 6 Michigan State, No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Tennessee, No. 11 Louisville, No. 12 Arkansas, No. 17 Kansas, No. 19 Texas Tech
Eight teams are ranked in the second tier for different reasons. On paper, Arizona would be in the S Tier if there were a resolution regarding RJ Godfrey's eligibility. The Wildcats' one weakness heading into the season is at PF, which Godfrey would fill if he's ruled eligible. The Wildcats have one of the best trios in the sport in Motiejus Krivas, Ivan Kharchenkov and Caleb Holt.
The other seven teams are extremely talented. Michigan State has the CBS Sports preseason Player of the Year (Jeremy Fears Jr.), while three other teams (JT Toppin, Texas Tech; Tyran Stokes, Kansas and Flory Bidunga, Louisville) have a preseason All-American on the roster. As I outlined in our overrated/underrated story, Kansas and Texas Tech are legit top-10 teams if everyone is cleared to play.
Texas, Tennessee and Louisville spent big in the transfer portal this offseason to improve their respective rosters. Arkansas has its most talented roster from top to bottom since John Calipari took over as head coach. Jordan Smith Jr. is a projected top-three pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. Although the Razorbacks lack experience with Billy Richmond III serving as the lone starter returning, this roster has the talent to make a Final Four run.
College basketball rankings: Kansas makes big move in Top 25 And 1 after landing Trey Kaufman-Renn Gary Parrish
B Tier
The teams: No. 9 Virginia, No. 10 Houston, No. 13 St. John's, No. 14 Miami, No. 15 Gonzaga
Five teams are in the B tier, with Virginia being the highest-ranked team (No. 9) to appear. Although the Cavaliers have the preseason ACC Player of the Year (Thijs De Ridder) on the roster, this is the fourth-best team in the conference behind Duke, Miami and Louisville.
Speaking of the Hurricanes, you shouldn't sleep on Jai Lucas' squad heading into his second season. Miami was one of last season's surprises and has an even better roster on paper this season. If Malik Reneau is cleared to play, you can make the argument that Miami should be in A Tier. Reneau, Shelton Henderson, Dante Allen, Acaden Lewis, and Somto Cyril are a legit Starting Five.
Houston entered last season ranked No. 2, and although this roster on paper isn't as talented as last season's, which returned multiple starters from a team that was playing for a national title, I will never doubt Kelvin Sampson's ability to get a team ready to play. Sampson could teach anybody reading this how to play high-level defense.
C Tier
The teams: No. 16 Michigan, No. 19 Iowa State, No. 20 Alabama, No. 21 USC, No. 22 UCLA, No. 23 Kentucky, No. 24 Vanderbilt, No. 25 BYU
The C Tier represents the rest of the teams ranked inside the Top 25, with reigning national champion Michigan headlining the group. The Wolverines (ranked No. 16 in the poll) became the first reigning national champion to be ranked outside the top-10 in the preseason poll since UConn in 2014. There are reasons for that.
- Dusty May is now coaching the Dallas Mavericks. Losing one of the best coaches in college basketball in the middle of summer was a tough break for the Wolverines.
- Freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. was expected to play a major role this season, but tore his ACL on Michigan's European tour late this summer. The five-star recruit was projected to start next to Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney in the backcourt, which would've been one of the most dynamic trios in college basketball. McCoy was also projected to be Michigan's best NBA Draft prospect.
- Michigan returns just one starter (Cadeau) from its title team. Michigan's strength during the last two seasons, while May was at the helm, was the frontcourt. Replacing three lottery picks won't be easy, but transfers J.P Estrella and Moustapaha Thiam will be tasked with filling the role. Michigan will also be awaiting the eligibility of Roddy Gayle Jr., who would be in the starting lineup if cleared.
Outside of Michigan, there are a few other teams that intrigue me. USC has its most talented roster since Eric Musselman took over, headlined by Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas returning. The buzz across town at UCLA is also real, with five-star freshman Nikola Krustica serving as the program's best NBA Draft prospect since Lonzo Ball.
Alabama, Kentucky and Vanderbilt will also make noise in the loaded SEC. Meanwhile, Iowa State (Tamin Lipsey) and BYU (Jaxon Kohler) are awaiting word on whether one of their players will be granted a fifth year. If they're cleared, it changes the roster's floor and ceiling.
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