The NFL's move towards more joint practices and less starter participation in the preseason has meant fewer big swings in my Fantasy Football projections. That's probably a good thing as it feels like more often the things we react to in preseason that aren't injury related end up being false signals or overreactions. So when talking about the big rankings movers of preseason Week 2, a lot of them came from events that happened before the games started on Thursday. Still, some of these moves are significant and may not be reflected in ADP for another week, so they are important to note if you have a draft coming up soon.
Before we get to the definitive movers, I must at least mention that Ashton Jeanty left practice on Sunday and as of writing on Sunday we have no details regarding the severity of the injury. It's worth noting that our Dave Richard was at the practice and noted this: "His teammates immediately froze as he lay on the ground. Trainers tended to him, then helped him up and aided him off the field. As he left, the entire team got down on a knee and stayed silent for a while before finishing practice." It doesn't sound good, but again, we have no details.
I would love to tell you to wait until we know more to react, but I know that (like me) many of you are drafting tonight. Jeanty was a borderline first round pick before the injury but until we know more I won't draft him before pick No. 35 in one-QB leagues. You can me more aggressive in more shallow leagues, or if you have a high tolerance for risk. At this moment there is both a chance he plays Week 1 and a chance he won't play all year. We just don't know. Those are terrible circumstances to draft under and you are going to have to make a decision based on your own risk tolerance.
Jeanty's clear backup is Mike Washington Jr., and he has looked fantastic in the preseason. Washington has 119 rush yards on 15 carries in two preseason games and would be a Round 5 pick or higher if Jeanty's injury is indeed season ending. On Sunday night I am planning on looking for Washington in Round 8 assuming we don't have more information before I draft. Stay tuned, when we know more about this situation, you will. Here are the other movers from the past week:
Jayden Higgins injury fallout
It seems like more than a week ago, but the loss of Higgins is a big one for the Texans. He was having a spectacular offseason by all accounts. I boosted Nico Collins' target share slightly and he's now a Round 2 pick in full PPR leagues. The other wide receivers are very questionable with Tank Dell and Jaylin Noel battling injuries. Either is worth a pick in the final rounds of most drafts, but to start the season Xavier Hutchinson will probably be the team's second-best receiver. The biggest mover in my rankings was Dalton Schultz, who is now a borderline top-12 tight end worth a pick in Round 10. Schultz was second on the Texans with 106 targets last year, and that was on a team that threw 120 passes to Higgins and Christian Kirk, who is no longer on the team. If Dell or Noel don't step up then Schultz could flirt with 120 targets and a top-six finish at tight end.
Najee Harris signing fallout
It has been a bad preseason for Tyrone Tracy and the acquisition of Harris only makes it worse. I am not entirely sure that Tracy has a role on this team, and for now I have dropped him outside of the first 10 rounds. Harris is worth a late-round pick, particularly in deeper leagues, but he has to get in football shape just to earn the secondary role to Cam Skattebo. Make sure Harris is rostered but don't draft him to be more than a backup. Skattebo becomes just a little riskier with this acquisition, because Harris is a coach's back and if the veteran regains form he could be a problem for Skattebo in both short yardage and the passing game. The safest course of action is to wait until Round 5 to draft Skattebo, but don't be surprised is someone in your league drafts him in Round 4.
Alvin Kamara injury fallout
It has been a roller coaster offseason for Travis Etienne. He signed a big deal with the Saints and originally many of us thought that meant Kamara was leaving. When the team restructured Kamara's deal, Etienne fell into the mid-RB2 range. Now that Kamara may miss the start of the season I have Etienne ranked as a top-12 running back worth a pick in Round 3. While we do expect to see Kamara early in the year, he had already lost a step and I am very skeptical he'll be effective enough to stay on the field coming off this injury. I now have Etienne projected for 290 touches, and he has upside well beyond that.
Four smaller moves I made this past week:
- I remain the low guy on A.J. Brown, but I did move him up a few spots after his brilliant performance in team camp against Philadelphia. I am still worried about the knee and the volume, but I am no longer worried that he is not quite the same receiver he once was.
- Kyle Monangai fell behind Blake Corum and out of Round 8. His knee injury isn't supposed to last long into the season but I don't like that Week 1 is in question. D'Andre Swift remains one of my favorite picks in Round 4 and could move into Round 3 if we get a negative report on Monangai.
- Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan look ready to dominate targets in Carolina and both look like they will get an elevated slot rate. I already had McMillan in Round 3, but I did move Coker up into Round 9 as a high-end WR4.
- Dalton Kincaid has maintained his health through the preseason and there is legitimate optimism that he plays the highest snap share of his career. That optimism pushes him into the top 12 tight ends for the first time this offseason. He would be a great guy to pair with Dalton Schultz in the double digit rounds. Schultz provides a nice floor and Kincaid has immense upside if he's ever a full time player.
