CNN correspondent John King talks to the audience before moderating a debate sponsored by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona at the Mesa Arts Center on February 22, 2012 in Mesa, Arizona. Cable news could be in for a big night. Ethan Miller/Getty Images Whatever partisan leanings the cable news networks may or may not have, they’re likely united on one thing about Tuesday’s midterm election: They hope it’s more like 2018 than 2022.
And with Donald Trump pretend-on-the-ballot, they just might get their wish.
The 2018 midterms were dramatic, with Democrats gaining a House of Representatives majority and ending a Republican trifecta in Congress and the White House after Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 (Republicans increased their Senate majority by two seats). Democrats also flipped several governorships. News outlets offered coverage more akin to a presidential year, and it paid off in the largest collective TV audience for a midterm election night this century.
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The 2022 midterms were … not that. Republicans regained control of the House, though a pundit-forecasted “red wave” didn’t really materialize. The Senate went form a 50-50 tie to a one-seat majority for Democrats. It was a much more typical midterm outcome, with the party not in the White House making legislative gains — but not huge ones.
TV ratings reflected the differences: Across all linear networks’ coverage, the 2018 midterms averaged 36.1 million viewers, a huge increase over the 22.7 million average in 2014. The big three broadcast networks devoted all of primetime to the election, vs. just the 10 p.m. hour in 2014, contributing to the big gains.
The three biggest cable news outlets also had their best midterm night ever, both in primetime and for the full night of coverage (6 p.m.-1 a.m. ET). Fox News, CNN and MSNBC (now known as MS NOW) averaged a combined 13.94 million viewers for the full night (and more than 17 million in primetime). Fox News led the way with a seven-hour average of 6.12 million viewers, up 23 percent from 2014. CNN (3.88 million) and MSNBC (3.95 million) more than doubled their 2014 numbers.
That momentum also carried through the rest of November 2018, with total-day viewers up for all three networks compared to a year earlier. CNN and MSNBC also showed viewer gains in the first two months of 2019 as the new Congress was gaveled in, while Fox dipped some (while still maintaining a sizable overall lead). That might be a reflection of each network’s leanings: MSNBC is pretty openly liberal, and the CNN of 2018-19 was a regular target of ire for Trump and his administration.
Four years later, audiences weren’t nearly as keyed in on the midterms. The all-network average was 25.43 million viewers in primetime, down 30 percent from 2018. Fox News had the smallest ratings dip, declining by about 8 percent over the full election night block. CNN and MSNBC suffered much more, falling by 47 percent and 32 percent in total viewers.
The post-election halo was also smaller: All three had improved numbers in November 2022 vs. November 2021, and CNN and MSNBC had small-ish year-to-year gains in January 2023’s full day numbers. Those gains went by the wayside a month later, however, as all three fell vs. February 2022 — when news viewing surged with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The pre-election narrative this year seems to be leaning a little more toward the higher stakes of eight years ago than the relatively business-as-usual outcome of 2022. Ratings later this week will help tell the story — which news executives hope will be a good one.
This is part of The Hollywood Reporter’s ongoing midterm coverage. You can check out all of our pieces here.
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