I have never understood how self-proclaimed or anointed election experts, who are wrong time and again, remain the go-to experts for much of the media. What I do understand is why they are wrong so often.
Many of these experts live in bubbles quite removed from Main Street America and especially the working-class voting population.
To be sure, Republicans have more than their fair share of the snobbish, pompous and the ignorant, living happily and hedonistically within those same bubbles of luxury that will never be attainable to many of their fellow Americans.
Having grown up in poverty myself, I can say that most in the working-class do not resent others’ success. They just want those who do attain or are handed that success to understand and address the plight of the disenfranchised and the powerless if they ever do find themselves in positions of power.
In my time, I have known many paycheck-to-paycheck parents and voters, many of whom still deeply believe in President Trump. And yet all say their paychecks buy less and less with each passing month.
My wife and I have done all right in life. But of late, every single time she comes back from the grocery chain store with just two small bags of items, she points out the ever-increasing prices. This is no one’s imagination. This is reality.
Some in the administration will claim until the cows come home that the stock market is doing great; 401(k) accounts are growing; and all of our rich friends are getting richer. But one truth for one class does not cancel out the quality-of-life crushing truth for another.
Politics, like much of life, is cyclical. Democrats used to be really good at addressing bread and butter issues. Then Republicans cleverly hijacked that winning formula. And now, it seems to be swinging back toward the Democrats.
As we rapidly approach the midterms in November and the 2028 presidential election, history and reality are working against the Republicans. History reminds us that in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the party not occupying the Oval Office gained ground. That, coupled with the reality of more and more working class Americans struggling economically, should be a five-alarm warning for Republicans.
Yet, so many seem blissfully oblivious to it all.
As an example, I offer up the red states of Florida and Texas. Maybe the warnings are not reaching certain ears in the administration and the Republican leadership, but I well-connected Republicans in those two states are increasingly worried about the Senate race in Texas and the governor’s race in Florida.
Aside from their concerns that the Republican Party is coming down on the wrong side of bread and butter issues, they worry that they are putting up flawed candidates in a midterm that already favors Democrats.
In Texas, a new Fox News poll shows Democratic senate candidate James Talarico (D) leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 3 points. And among “extremely motivated voters” from both parties, Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points. Even worse, one-quarter of non-MAGA Republicans support Talarico. All this in a state Trump won by 14 points in 2024.
Why? One reason is that Republicans are wasting time and money attacking Talarico’s personal life. Another is Ken Paxton’s personal flaws. A third is that working-class Texas feels shunned by Republicans promoting what is supposed to be a great economy based on 401(k) performances.
A similar situation exists in Florida. Every Republican I speak to in that state believes term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to be “the best governor in the nation.” Many also believed that his wife Casey would have been a lock to replace him, but we will never know. President Trump, as is his prerogative, endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) before the Republican primary for governor had even begun. The primary is still coming up, but Donalds will be the Republican nominee.
In the meantime, he is getting pounded by negative attack ads that will be used against him by the eventual Democratic nominee (most likely former Republican Congressman David Jolly, now a Democrat) this fall. Florida Republicans I know are nervous.
That, once again, comes on top of real economic pain felt by every paycheck-to-paycheck voter. Karl Rove, who driving force behind George W. Bush election as president, has warned that “Republicans risk making the same political mistake he believes cost Democrats the 2024 election, arguing the party is relying too heavily on favorable gross domestic product and job figures while failing to address the economic pressures many voters still feel.
Even as Democratic Socialists of America gain ground with outright communists winning nominations, a multitude of “canary in the coal mine” examples exist on the Republican side as well, including in Florida and Texas. If both of these flawed canddates fail, the Republican Party is in deep trouble.
I am no expert, but if I were the Republican leadership, I might be trying to figure out how to get some emergency oxygen to these canaries before it is too late.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.
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