Arch Manning's career is at a crossroads, featuring four potential directions, three of which were unfathomable when he enrolled at Texas as the highest-rated prospect in the Class of 2023.
However, Option A remains a distinct possibility for the scion of football's foremost quarterbacking family. Even amid his poor performance for a disappointing Texas team, Manning is still widely regarded as a potential first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
He landed at No. 21 on Mike Renner's 2027 NFL Draft Big Board last week. While that placement came before another lackluster performance in a Week 7 loss to Florida, it's no outlier. Other reputable draft analysts have pegged Manning in a similar range this month, even as he's appeared to regress under Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian.
Perhaps it's as simple as that: his regression is attributed to the coach he plays for and the scheme he plays in.
While there's no way to fully absolve Manning of blame for the abundance of issues that have clouded his potential, NFL scouts pulling up Manning's increasingly sketchy film still see a big frame, big arm, quality athleticism and a special last name. With some better development, they can imagine better outcomes.
Arch Manning throws this one into double coverage and was ALMOST picked off. pic.twitter.com/bzDZ0YqveK
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 17, 2026
If Manning gets back on the rails down the stretch, a 5-1 finish for Texas may be enough to get the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff at 9-3 after they plated their resume in gold with early-season wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee.
Perhaps backup KJ Lacey seeing an uptick in first-team reps will bring out the best in Manning as he feels real job pressure for the first time since inheriting the starting gig from Quinn Ewers after the 2024 season. If so, what was once viewed as a foregone conclusion -- Manning hearing his name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft after a four-year college career -- could still be reality.
But what if Manning continues to struggle and his stock keeps slipping as a result? That's where the other three potential directions come into play.
Option B: Returning to Texas in 2027
Simply running it back at Texas with Manning and the same offensive staff in 2027 must sound unappealing to disgruntled Longhorns fans following consecutive losses to unranked opponents. But if Sarkisian is willing to shake up his staff and put some new voices in Manning's ear, the option could be more plausible.
Thus far in his six seasons on the job, Sarkisian has remained unfailingly loyal to offensive coordinator Kyle Flood and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee, even after their similar collective failings to develop Ewers. That loyalty may have to end if Sarkisian is going to sell Texas fans on the continuation of his own tenure. With Manning stagnating at 79th nationally in EPA per dropback after finishing 35th in that metric last season, his regression is obvious.
It's not an isolated incident, either. Ewers, a former five-star prospect, was just a seventh-round draft pick in 2024 after three years starting for the Longhorns. Manning's struggles under the same staff and in the same scheme illustrate a trend.
After a putrid Week 7 performance in a loss to the Gators, it feels increasingly unlikely that Manning could return to Texas to play for this same staff -- unless the Longhorns suddenly figure it out down the stretch and begin humming like they were expected to hum in 2026. But perhaps with some staff changes, it could be plausible.
Option C: Arch Manning transfers
A change of scenery could be beneficial if Manning wants to reclaim his career trajectory and be viewed as a sure bet in NFL Draft circles rather than a risky project.
There are numerous recent examples of quarterbacks transferring late in their college careers, getting better coaching and turbocharging their draft stock. Look no further than the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza, who played his junior season at Indiana after two years in relative obscurity at Cal.
.@PriscoCBS: "If Arch goes back to school... I don't think he should go back to Texas if Sark is the coach." @RanCarthon: Arch Manning to Miami? #justfootball pic.twitter.com/jMySQXXAuW
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) October 19, 2026
Cam Ward transferred from Washington State to Miami and became the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 after one season with the Hurricanes. After maxing out at their first schools, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix transferred elsewhere for their final two seasons and developed into first-round picks in the 2024 draft.
Manning could opt to use his final season of eligibility elsewhere, strategically choosing a staff and system that can maximize his talent and rebuild his confidence. If the second half of the 2026 season brings no resurgence and there are no staff changes at Texas, Manning and his camp would be negligent not to seriously explore the option.
Option D: Enter the NFL Draft anyway
Option A is that Manning gets back on track and decides to enter the 2027 NFL Draft as a likely first-round pick, even though his chances of going No. 1 overall are likely shot at this point.
But what if he struggles in the second half of the 2026 season and his stock keeps sliding? Manning could declare for the draft anyway, resting assured that some general manager would see his physical tools and last name and talk themselves into spending a Day 2 or Day 3 pick on him under the belief that their organization could be the one to fix him.
OKLAHOMA GETS A PICK-SIX OFF OF ARCH MANNING😱 (Via: ABC) pic.twitter.com/Z0O9CBj723
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 10, 2026
After four years under the microscope at Texas, entering the NFL Draft with less fanfare and beginning a professional career with reduced expectations might benefit Manning. If he's viewed as damaged goods, he wouldn't be expected to start early in his NFL career and could instead spend some time developing in a pro-style system.
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