Aces vs. Fever predictions: Expert picks as Caitlin Clark, A'ja Wilson square off in winner-take-all Game 3

For the second consecutive season, the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever will meet in a winner-take-all matchup in Sin City. Last season, the Aces outlasted the Fever in overtime in Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals to advance to the Finals. This time, it will be Game 3 of the first round, with a trip to the semis on the line. 

With MVP favorite A'ja Wilson's 38 points and 16 rebounds leading the way, the Aces took care of business at home with a 102-85 victory in Game 1. But the Fever responded in Game 2 behind Caitlin Clark's 27-point, 15-assist performance. 

In Game 3, will the reigning-champion Aces defend their home court and keep their repeat quest alive? Or will the Fever pull off the upset on the road to complete the comeback? 

Where to watch Aces vs. Fever Game 3

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 1 | Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena -- Las Vegas, Nevada
• TV: USA/fubo
• Odds (via FanDuel): Aces -4.5 | O/U: 181.5

Aces vs. Fever Game 3 expert picks

Lindsay Gibbs' prediction: Fever 92, Aces 83

I picked Indiana to win the series in three a few days ago, and after what I saw from the Fever in Game 2, I'm going to stick to that decision -- despite the Aces having home-court advantage, far more championship experience and the best player in the world, A'ja Wilson. 

This game will ultimately be a battle of the Big Threes. Can Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston stand up against Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young? In Game 2, the Aces' Big 3 combined for 63 points, while the Fever's had 75 in Indiana's 99-89 win. In Game 1, which the Aces won 102-85, the Fever trio only had 45 points, compared to 73 for Wilson, Gray and Young.

The Fever are now 3-2 on the season over the Aces, and definitely have the offensive firepower to win the series -- the Fever had the top scoring offense in the league this season with 96 points per game, while the Aces had the second-highest with 91.5. But the reason I'm still picking Indiana to advance is because they added toughness to the mix in Game 2. It is not uncommon for high-scoring, less experienced teams to get punked in the playoffs when the intensity increases a dozen notches. That certainly happened to the Fever in Game 1. The Aces were a step ahead of them the entire game, and the physicality and speed knocked them off-kilter.

But thanks to a player that coach Stephanie White didn't play at all in Game 1, the Fever were able to respond in Game 2. 

"That's what we talked about as a team. Don't be soft," Clark said after Game 2, a 99-89 victory for Indiana. "Myisha was a leader of that. She kinda gathered the group yesterday and was like, 'You have to have a different mentality about yourself.'

Top moments from Caitlin Clark's historic performance as Fever fend off elimination with Game 2 win over Aces Jack Maloney

Myisha Hines-Allen is a nine-year veteran who won the 2019 WNBA championship with the Washington Mystics in her second year in the league. The second-round pick from Louisville has made a name for herself with her strength and hustle on the court. White put her into the game with 4:37 left in the first quarter, and she immediately got into a tussle with Wilson, essentially bullying the MVP. That could have been a distraction, but instead it was exactly the edge the Fever needed. She played for just under 13 minutes and only had two points, but Hines-Allen helped her team learn how to tackle -- pun intended -- playoff basketball. And I think that lesson will stick for Game 3 and the Fever will advance. 

"From the beginning, I was telling everyone, 'Hey, we've got to set the tone. We have to hit first, we have to show that we're not just going to allow [the Aces] to run any play, get into any sets easy,'" Hines-Allen said. "So I think when I checked in, I was just trying to set the tone, making sure that they know that I'm a woman of my word… I'm here for my teammates and I'm going to back my teammates up. It was just mainly that. Just showing if I say something, I'm going to lead by example."

Jack Maloney's prediction: Aces 91, Fever 79

I initially picked the Aces to advance, and I don't like changing my picks mid-series, so I'm sticking with that. 

For all of their championship experience, the Aces seemed a bit flustered in Game 2, both by the intensity and pace with which the Fever were playing and the atmosphere inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse. That included Wilson, who is expected to be named MVP for the third straight season and a record fifth time overall. 

After tying her playoff career-high with 38 points in Game 1, Wilson took just 11 shots in Game 2 and turned the ball over four times -- her most turnovers in a playoff game since the 2023 semifinals. She was also involved in a few dust-ups, both on and off the court. Hines-Allen shoved her, Clark ripped a jump ball from her hands and she received a technical foul after confronting a fan. 

Wilson and the rest of her teammates should be much more comfortable at home in Game 3, while the Fever will not have their raucous crowd to fuel them. During the regular season, the Fever had a plus-10 net rating at home, compared to a plus-3.4 net rating on the road. Clark, in particular, averaged 24.7 points at home, compared to 19.9 on the road. 

Since the Aces began this dynastic run in 2022, they have only lost back-to-back playoff games once (Games 1 and 2 of the 2024 semis). I expect Wilson and Co. to continue that trend with a championship-level response.