2026 Wurth 400 predictions, odds, start time: NASCAR at Texas picks, best bets by advanced model

Mike McClure's computer model reveals its surprising picks and NASCAR Texas props for the Würth 400 2026 on Sunday

With 10 races in the rearview mirror, the Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2026 Wurth 400 on Sunday. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET with Tyler Reddick atop the NASCAR standings. He's one of nine NASCAR Texas winners over the last nine races at the track, which certainly won't make it easy to make Wurth 400 DFS picks or 2026 NASCAR at Texas predictions. Meanwhile, Carson Hocevar is coming off his first Cup Series win last week which has given him a bump up the latest NASCAR Texas odds.

However, it's Denny Hamlin who is the +500 favorite, followed by Reddick (+600) and Kyle Larson (+600). Despite last week's Talladega win, Hocevar is still only priced at +1600 to make it back-to-back victories. The latest 2026 Wurth 400 odds have Brad Keselowski, who has eight top 10s over his last nine Texas starts, as a +2500 longshot. Before locking in any NASCAR Texas predictions or NASCAR DFS lineups, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to the NASCAR Wurth 400. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

2026 NASCAR at Texas predictions

For NASCAR at Texas 2026, McClure is fading Tyler Reddick (+600), saying he doesn't even crack the top 5 despite being one of the favorites. It's been a historic season for 23XI Racing and Reddick, who is the first driver since 1987 to win five of the first nine races. However, since linking up with Michael Jordan's team, Reddick hasn't had the same TMS success as when with Richard Childress Racing. Reddick was runner-up in his first NASCAR Texas start with RCR and then won the race in his last Texas trip with Childress. Yet, he has just a 16.7 average finish at the track since joining 23XI, with his two worst finishes across 10 career Texas Motor Speedway starts coming with Jordan's team.

Another surprise: Joey Logano (+2700) is projected to make a strong run towards the title. The three-time Cup Series champion has had a rough start to the season, which has led to these long odds, but one can't overlook what he's done at Texas Motor Speedway. Logano is one of three active drivers with multiple Texas victories as he enters Sunday's race as the defending winner. Even when he doesn't win, Logano often finds himself in competition for a checkered flag as he has three top 5s over his last five NASCAR Texas starts. Over his last 23 trips to the DFW track, Larson's placed in the top 5 an astounding 14 times, which is a 61% clip. See which other drivers the model is backing at SportsLine.

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How to make 2026 Wurth 400 picks

McClure is also high on two other longshots of at least +2700 who make a run for the top of the leaderboard, including a massive longshot of at least +7000, potentially netting any backer a huge payday. You can only see who it is here.

So who wins the 2026 Wurth 400, and which massive longshots could stun NASCAR at Texas? Visit SportsLine now to see the 2026 NASCAR Wurth 400 picks and best bets from a NASCAR model that nailed 11 winners last year, and find out.

2026 NASCAR at Texas odds, lineup

See full NASCAR Wurth 400 picks at SportsLine

(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change) Denny Hamlin +500 Kyle Larson +600 Tyler Reddick +600 Ryan Blaney +900 Christopher Bell +1000 William Byron +1100 Chase Elliott +1400 Chase Briscoe +1400 Carson Hocevar +1600 Bubba Wallace +1800 Ty Gibbs +1900 Chris Buescher +2200 Brad Keselowski +2500 Joey Logano +2700 Ross Chastain +4000 Ryan Preece +5000 Austin Cindric +5000 Alex Bowman +5000 Daniel Suarez +6000 Corey Heim +7000 Kyle Busch +8000 Erik Jones +10000 Josh Berry +10000 Michael McDowell +10000 Zane Smith +12500 Austin Dillon +12500 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +17500 Connor Zilisch +20000 AJ Allmendinger +20000 Noah Gragson +25000 John Hunter Nemechek +25000 Riley Herbst +25000 Shane van Gisbergen +25000 Todd Gilliland +30000 Chad Finchum +50000 Ty Dillon +50000 Cole Custer +50000 Cody Ware +50000