Major League Baseball's annual amateur draft begins on June 11. Future All-Stars and award winners will hear their names called. Maybe even a future Hall of Famer or two. MLB's draft is rarely about instant gratification because even the very best prospects will disappear into the minors for a few years, but you must draft well to be a successful organization. It is imperative.
The 2026 draft class will be evaluated instantly based on what we know right now. And, based on what we know right now, we can also go back a decade and re-evaluate the 2016 draft class. That draft has produced two Cy Young winners and two Rookies of the Year, plus several All-Stars and World Series champions. That said, only one first-round position player has appeared in even 500 MLB games. The 2016 draft's best players came from the later rounds.
The Diamondbacks (No. 13 pick for Zack Greinke), Orioles (No. 14 for Yovani Gallardo), Nationals (No. 17 for Daniel Murphy), Giants (No. 18 for Jeff Samardzija), Rangers (No. 19 for Ian Desmond), Royals (No. 24 for Ian Kennedy), and Cubs (No. 27 for John Lackey) all surrendered their first-round pick to sign a qualified free agent. As such, there were only 23 picks in the 2016 first round.
With the infallible benefit of hindsight, we're going to go back and "redraft" the 2016 first round. To be clear, this is not a straight ranking of the best 2016 draftees by WAR or something like that. That would be boring. We're redrafting players based on what they've done in their careers to date and what we expect them to do in the future, so it's a little more nuanced.
Here now is our 2016 first-round redraft, beginning with a player who wasn't even the first player drafted out of his college that year.
1. Phillies: C Will Smith, Louisville
Actual pick: OF Mickey Moniak, La Costa Canyon HS (CA) Smith's draft spot: No. 32 to Dodgers
Smith wasn't on the first-round radar going into 2016. He hit .242/.333/.331 as a college sophomore in 2015, then broke out in a big way with a .382/.480/.567 line and only 14 strikeouts in 55 games as a junior in 2016. Smith had long stood out for his defense and athleticism behind the plate, and once he added more offensive punch, he jumped up draft boards.
The Dodgers selected Smith with the No. 32 pick and paid him a $1.8 million signing bonus. They helped him unlock more power in the minors and Smith has since developed into a legitimate franchise cornerstone behind the plate. He was the primary catcher for three World Series champions, including last year, when he hit what proved to be the series-clinching home run in Game 7 against the Blue Jays.
As for Moniak, he was considered a top-five prospect going into the 2016 Draft, and was not out of place as the No. 1 selection. The Phillies gave him a $6.1 million signing bonus, roughly $3 million below slot, and used the savings to sign other players later in the draft. (Second-rounder Kevin Gowdy received most of those savings. He got hurt and never reached MLB.)
Moniak's overly aggressive approach caught up to him in pro ball and he dropped off top 100 prospect lists by 2018. He eventually reached the big leagues in 2020, then was traded to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard at the 2022 deadline. Moniak has since moved to the Rockies, where he's found success as a power-hitting platoon outfielder/DH. Plate indiscipline has held him back.
2. Reds: 1B Pete Alonso, Florida
Actual pick: IF Nick Senzel, Tennessee Alonso's draft spot: No. 64 to Mets
Like Will Smith, Alonso had a huge draft year at the plate, slashing .374/.469/.659 with 14 home runs in 58 games. Poor defense put a lot of pressure on his bat though, causing him to slip into the second round. Alonso would go on to become the Mets' all-time home run leader (264) and, now as a member of the Orioles, he should hit his 300th career homer later this year. No other 2016 draft pick has even 160 career homers.
Senzel was considered a bit of a reach with the No. 2 pick, though nothing too extreme. Injuries and misuse (the Reds never really settled on a set position for him) caused him to stall out. He's a career .232/.299/.363 hitter with minus-3.1 WAR. Senzel has not appeared in an MLB game since 2024 and is currently playing for the Lexington Legends of the independent Atlantic League.
3. Braves: RHP Corbin Burnes, Saint Mary's
Actual pick: RHP Ian Anderson, Shenendehowa HS (NY) Burnes' draft spot: No. 111 to Brewers
A limp to the finish in his draft year pushed Burnes down into the fourth round. The Brewers realigned his mechanics, turning him into a buzzsaw. Burnes won the 2021 National League Cy Young and received Cy Young votes every year from 2020-24. He was in the "best pitcher in baseball" conversation those years and was still pitching very well when he needed Tommy John surgery last year. Anderson is an unfortunate case of a talented pitcher getting hurt. He looked like a rotation mainstay in 2020 and 2021 before his arm betrayed him.
4. Rockies: SS Bo Bichette, Lakewood HS (FL)
Actual pick: RHP Riley Pint, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS) Bichette's draft spot: No. 66 to Blue Jays
The son of longtime big leaguer Dante Bichette, Bo does things in an unconventional way at the plate and it cost him a bit on draft day (so did sketchy shortstop defense). Bichette went in the second round and has since led his league in hits twice, gone to two All-Star Games, and received MVP votes in four seasons. Pint showed a 100 mph fastball in high school, but his career was derailed when he developed the yips in the minors. He retired in June 2021. Then, to his credit, he unretired in March 2022 and briefly got to the big leagues in 2023 and 2024.
5. Brewers: RHP Shane Bieber, UC Santa Barbara
Actual pick: OF Corey Ray, Louisville Bieber's draft spot: No. 122 to Cleveland
Bieber is one of the first modern player development success stories. A command pitcher in college (34 unintentional walks in 300 innings), the Guardians unlocked more velocity and crisper secondary pitches through advanced training methods, and turned Bieber into an ace. He won the 2020 AL Cy Young and finished in the top seven of the Cy Young voting two other times. Ray, not Will Smith, was the first Louisville player selected in the 2016 Draft. He reached the majors for one game in 2021 and is currently the Nationals' first base coach.
6. Athletics: OF Bryan Reynolds, Vanderbilt
Actual pick: LHP AJ Puk, Florida Reynolds' draft spot: No. 59 to Giants
Reynolds should have gone higher than the second round in 2016. He hit everywhere he played and had pedigree. The Giants were able to get him with the No. 59 pick, then traded him to the Pirates less than two years later in the Andrew McCutchen deal. Reynolds has two All-Star Game selections to his name and is having one of his best seasons this year. Puk was a candidate to go No. 1 overall in 2016. Control problems and injuries have pushed him into the bullpen, where he's continued to show a big arm when available.
7. Marlins: RHP Zac Gallen, North Carolina
Actual pick: LHP Braxton Garrett, Florence HS (AL) Gallen's draft spot: No. 106 to Cardinals
Similar to Shane Bieber, Gallen was a control pitcher in college whose stuff leveled up in pro ball. The Cardinals traded him (along with Sandy Alcantara) to the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna deal, then the Marlins sent him to the D-backs for Jazz Chisholm Jr. Gallen has twice finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting. Braxton reached the big leagues in 2020 and has given the Marlins 65 starts around a series of arm injuries over the years.
8. Padres: LHP Jesús Luzardo, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
Actual pick: RHP Cal Quantrill, Stanford Luzardo's draft spot: No. 94 to Nationals
Luzardo had Tommy John surgery a few weeks before the draft, which pushed him down in the second round. He's since been traded from the Nationals to the Athletics (for Sean Doolittle) to the Marlins (for Starling Marte) to the Phillies (for prospects). It took a few years, but Luzardo has developed into a quality No. 2 starter. He has upside beyond that and might be the most productive 2016 draft pick from this day forward. Quantrill was a probability-over-upside draft prospect the Padres traded to the Guardians as part of the Mike Clevinger deal in 2020. He's still hanging around the league.
9. Tigers: UTIL Tommy Edman, Stanford
Actual pick: RHP Matt Manning, Sheldon HS (CA) Edman's draft spot: No. 196 to Cardinals
St. Louis drafted two of the 10 best players in the 2016 class in Zac Gallen and Edman. Edman was not a high-level performer at Stanford (career .281/.362/.365 in college), but the Cardinals loved his defense and baseball smarts. He unlocked more offense in pro ball and has become a high-end super-utility guy with an NLCS MVP to his name (2024 with the Dodgers). Control problems held Manning back. He made 50 mostly ineffective starts with the Tigers from 2021-24 and is currently with the Samsung Lions in Korea, though he will miss 2026 with elbow surgery.
10. White Sox: OF Brandon Marsh, Buford HS (GA)
Actual pick: C Zack Collins, Miami Marsh's draft spot: No. 60 to Angels
Marsh was a standout high school football player who really blossomed as a baseball player during his draft year. He made his MLB debut with the Angels in 2021, was traded to the Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe in 2022, and has spent the last five years as a very good platoon outfielder who has occasionally played better than that (like this season). Collins had a wonky swing in college and was seen as a bit of a reach with the No. 10 pick. He played 152 MLB games with four teams from 2019-23 and never hit.
11. Mariners: RHP Michael King, Boston College
Actual pick: OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer King's draft spot: No. 353 to Marlins
King is a major player development success story ... for the Yankees. New York picked him up in a minor trade with the Marlins less than two years after the draft, coached him up into a high-leverage reliever, then moved him into the rotation in 2023. The Padres were impressed enough with King's rotation work to take him as the headliner in the Juan Soto trade. Lewis was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2020, but played only 70 MLB games after that due to injury. He's been out of baseball since 2024.
12. Red Sox: C Sean Murphy, Wright State
Actual pick: LHP Jay Groome, Barnegat HS (NJ) Murphy's draft spot: No. 83 to Athletics
If we had done this redraft exercise two or three years ago, Murphy might have been a top five pick. Injuries and poor performance have cut into his last few seasons. That said, Murphy was an All-Star and a Gold Glove winner early in his career, and he still has a chance to carve out a valuable second phase to his career with good health. Groome was perhaps the most famous prospect in the 2016 draft. Makeup concerns caused him to slide out of the top five. He never reached the big leagues and was suspended in 2024 for betting on baseball.
13. Rays: RHP David Bednar, Lafayette College
Actual pick: 3B Josh Lowe, Pope HS (GA) Bednar's draft spot: No. 1,044 to Padres
The Padres put Bednar, an unremarkable college starter, in the bullpen right away, and his velocity jumped. He went to the Pirates in the Joe Musgrove trade and has since made two All-Star Games while racking up over 100 career saves. Bednar was among the game's top relievers from 2021-23 and remains effective, though not quite as electric as at his peak. Lowe moved from third base to the outfield in the minors and had a terrific rookie season in 2023. Things have completely collapsed for him since then.
14. Cleveland: LHP Cole Ragans, North Florida Christian HS
Actual pick: OF Will Benson, Westminster HS (GA) Ragans' draft spot: No. 30 to Rangers
Texas selected Ragans with the compensation pick they received for losing Yovani Gallardo to free agency. He had two Tommy John surgeries in the minors and didn't pitch at all from 2018-20. Ragans' health began to cooperate in 2021 and the Rangers later traded him to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman in 2023, a move that helped their World Series push. When healthy, Ragans has pitched like an ace for Kansas City, though he hasn't been healthy often the last two years. Benson has very loud tools but a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, which has held him back. He landed with the Reds in a minor trade in February 2023 and has had some big moments for them.
15. Twins: 1B Nathaniel Lowe, Mississippi State
Actual pick: OF Alex Kirilloff, Plum HS (PA) Lowe's draft spot: No. 390 to Rays
The Rays drafted both Lowe brothers in 2016. Nathaniel has been a more productive big leaguer than Josh despite being drafted much later. He unlocked some power via swing changes in the minors and has been a solid, if unspectacular, first baseman in parts of eight MLB seasons. Lowe also won a Gold Glove in 2023. Kirilloff showed tremendous offensive potential at times, but injuries sabotaged his career. He retired in 2024 and walked away from baseball at age 26.
16. Angels: LHP JoJo Romero, Yavapai College
Actual pick: C Matt Thaiss, Virginia Romero's draft spot: No. 107 to Phillies
Starting never quite worked out for Romero, who moved to the bullpen when he reached the big leagues in 2019. The Phillies sent him to the Cardinals in a mutually beneficial 1-for-1 trade for Edmundo Sosa at the 2022 trade deadline. Romero has been a reliable late-inning reliever for several years now. He's 29, effective, left-handed and breathing. Romero has many more years in the league ahead of him. Thaiss was considered a big reach at No. 16 because he was very rough defensively behind the plate and lacked the bat to carry him at another position. He's still bouncing around baseball as an up-and-down third catcher type.
17. Astros: RHP Aaron Civale, Northeastern
Actual pick: RHP Forrest Whitley, Alamo Heights HS (TEX) Civale's draft spot: No. 92 to Cleveland
Taking the ball every fifth day and giving your team league-average performance has a lot of value, and that's what Civale has done since making his MLB debut in 2019. Like Bieber, he was a low walks college starter who found another gear with his stuff under Cleveland's player development folks. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, and a 50-game drug suspension in the minors kept Whitley from reaching what looked like an immense ceiling. He has had sporadic big-league time and is currently pitching well for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan.
18. Yankees: OF Austin Hays, Jacksonville
Actual pick: OF Blake Rutherford, Chaminade College Preparatory School (CA) Hays' draft spot: No. 91 to Orioles
Hays was the first 2016 draft pick to reach MLB, debuting on Sept. 7, 2017. Hays has an All-Star Game selection to his credit and he's settled in as a strong platoon bat who looks like he'll have a spot on a contender's bench for another few years. Getting Rutherford with the No. 18 pick was considered a coup for the Yankees at the time, though his bat underwhelmed, and the Yankees sent him to the White Sox as the headliner in the Todd Frazier-David Robertson trade at the 2017 deadline.
19. Mets: RHP Cal Quantrill, Stanford
Actual pick: RHP Justin Dunn, Boston College Quantrill's draft spot: No. 8 to Padres
Considered a slam dunk big-league starter thanks to his deep arsenal, command, pitching smarts, and bloodlines (Cal's father, Paul, pitched 14 MLB seasons), Quantrill has become a back-end starter/swingman who had some solid seasons earlier in his career. Dunn was included in the big Robinson Cano-Edwin Díaz trade and then got hurt, though he did make 32 starts for the Mariners and Reds from 2019-22.
20. Dodgers: OF Luke Raley, Lake Erie College
Actual pick: SS Gavin Lux, Indian Trail HS (WI) Raley's draft spot: No. 221 to Dodgers
Raley has already been traded four times, including back to the Dodgers and then again by the Dodgers. He's a left-handed platoon outfielder who really punishes righties and has averaged 26 homers per 600 plate appearances. That's a skill set that will keep him in the league several more years. Poor defense and a lack of power have put a low ceiling on Lux, who has not played this season due to injury.
21. Blue Jays: LHP Dylan Lee, Fresno State
Actual pick: RHP T.J. Zeuch, Pitt Lee's draft spot: No. 293 to Marlins
The Marlins released Lee at the end of spring training in 2021, the Braves signed him two weeks later, and seven months later, he started a World Series game. (As an opener, but still, he started a World Series game.) Lee has quietly been one of the game's best lefty relievers the last few years. Zeuch's stuff and command regressed after signing and he made only 16 appearances in parts of four MLB seasons.
22. Pirates: LHP Eric Lauer, Kent State
Actual pick: 3B Will Craig, Wake Forest Lauer's draft spot: No. 25 to Padres
Lauer was considered a lower-upside college starter who would get to the big leagues quickly, which he did. He made his debut in April 2018, started Opening Day for San Diego in 2019 and had a few solid years early in his career. After a stint in Korea, Lauer returned to MLB last year and has a chance to hang around a bit longer as a swingman type. Craig moved to first base and never hit. He is best remembered for having his brain broken by Javier Báez in 2021.
23. Cardinals: RHP Dustin May, Northwest HS (TX)
Actual pick: SS Delvin Pérez, International Baseball Academy (PR) May's draft spot: No. 101 to Dodgers
Because of injuries, May made only 20 starts from 2021-24, though he stayed healthy last season and has pitched well at times this season. Well enough that, at age 28, it looks like he has several more years in the big leagues ahead of him. May slotting into our redraft says as much about the quality of the draft class as it does his chances of living up to the potential he showed as a prospect. Perez never hit in the minors and got only a cup of coffee ... in Triple-A.
Add CBS Sports on Google Join the Conversation comments
