The 2026 NBA Finals are set to begin Wednesday night in San Antonio, and this Spurs-Knicks matchup has the makings of a fantastic series. Maybe even a classic. Both teams match up well, and it will be a chess match beginning in Game 1 as Mike Brown and Mitch Johnson look for ways to flip the board on one another over potentially seven games (I'm picking it go seven, and I'm not alone).
Below are 10 big on-court storylines that will define this series, and ultimately determine who's the last team standing with the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Knicks vs. Spurs predictions: NBA Finals expert picks as Victor Wembanyama leads the favorites Brad Botkin
1. Do we get inside or outside Wemby?
We're going to talk about the Victor Wembanyama matchup from different angles in terms of who will guard him and the particular challenge the different defenders will present. But, in the end, no matter who's on him, will he be successful in his mission to dominate the offensive paint?
You can go look at Wemby's shot charts from the OKC series. In the games he didn't get inside, they lost. In the games he did, they won. Wemby doesn't have a go-to scoring spot or move yet. He's a pretty random operator at this point. Sometimes he falls in love with the 3. Sometimes he looks like he's playing on a Nerf hoop, dunking on his little brother and his snot-nosed friends.
It's not entirely up to him which way his shot diet plays out. He's not strong enough to force his way deep into the paint, either by way of pre-pass positioning or off the dribble. His best bet is to run the floor and attack early before New York can set up against him. But at the end of the day, he has to be aggressive in his pursuit of the deepest positioning possible. He has to catch on the move rather than facing up and surveying from the 3-point line.
He'll need to make 3s in this series. One, because he'll be forced into them if he wants consistent looks, which the Knicks are not going to allow him to get at the rim. And two, he needs to get New York to fear those shots enough to close out hard on him, which he can then take advantage of with show-and-go drives.
But he can't be taking a bunch of 3s on the Knicks' terms. If they are bullying him into "screw it, I can't get any other shot up" type 3s, it's trouble for San Antonio. Mitch Johnson will need to get Wemby into positions on the court to be one dribble, one spin, one step from the paint, or even better the rim. And Wemby has to bring the right mentality first and foremost. If he doesn't, and at the end of this series you look up and see half his shots having come from the perimeter, it will be tough for the Spurs to win.
2. Can Josh Hart's shooting hold up?
Against OKC, the Spurs stuck Wembanyama on Alex Caruso (or some other non-shooter) so that he could sag way off and serve as a roving paint protector. Caruso burned them through the first three games by shooting a ridiculous 61% from 3. Hart figures to get a lot of the same treatment. He doesn't have to go crazy like Caruso, but he has to make the Spurs pay for ignoring him. Otherwise, Wemby gets to wreak havoc on New York's best scorers with impunity.
Hart shot a career-best 42% from 3 this season, including 49% from the corners, per Cleaning the Glass. Those numbers have dipped in the postseason, though, down to 31% overall and 36% from the corners, where he will be stationed a lot in the half court. If he can knock down wide-open 3s somewhere between his regular-season and postseason rates, the Knicks will be able to keep him on the floor for all the other great stuff he does. If he can't, they may have to bench him for Landry Shamet more than they'd like to, putting five shooters on the floor and force Wemby out to the perimeter.
3. How will the Spurs defend Karl-Anthony Towns?
Towns has a huge opportunity in this series. Outside of Wembanyama, the Spurs are not a big interior team. If they indeed put Wemby on Hart to serve as roving paint protector, as detailed above, that means KAT will get a wing as his primary defender. Probably a lot of Julian Champagnie, who at 6-foot-7 is obviously a size mismatch for the seven-foot Towns. KAT can put the ball on the floor and force Wemby over in rotation and get the Knicks' swings going, or obviously pick and pop for comfortable 3s.
If the wings can't handle Towns, that forces the Spurs to put Wembanyama on him. Towns is strong enough to go through Wemby, too, but at that point the bigger factor would be the threat of his 3-point shooting that would pull Wemby out of the paint, thus opening clearer lanes and finishing opportunities for Brunson and company.
4. ... And can KAT hold up defensively?
The emphasis on Towns swings both ways. He's a matchup problem for the Spurs on offense, but the Spurs can also go at him defensively. If the Knicks use the smaller OG Anunoby to defend Wemby (which they surely will at times, perhaps even as the first assignment), that puts Towns on one of San Antonio's wings, all of whom can shoot, drive and pass. Can he stay in front of those guys? Track them off ball? Hold his own in space when the Spurs inevitably bring him up into pick-and-rolls and force him to switch onto a guard?
Then there's the problem of defending Wemby straight up, which he'll have to do at various points. Aside from the little problem of trying to keep Wembanyama out of the paint and at least somewhat in check, Towns can't get into foul trouble. If Wemby is intent on attacking downhill, Towns will have to be extremely disciplined and ready to maintain his physical force without picking up dumb fouls. This is a serious challenge for Towns on a front that has proven difficult for him to manage most of his career.
5. Can Jalen Brunson win off the dribble?
Brunson hasn't faced an individual defender in these playoffs like Stephon Castle since Dyson Daniels in the first round. Castle is extremely physical, and assuming the refs continue to allow him to play that way, Brunson will be heavily challenged to consistently get by him, or any of the Spurs perimeter defenders for that matter.
The Knicks will obviously run a lot of ball screens for Brunson, but nobody fights over screens harder than Castle, and with Wemby able to corral drives for the second he needs to catch back up, there aren't going to be any red carpets into the paint.
We'll talk more about why this will likely lead to a heavy jump-shot series for Brunson and the Knicks as a whole, but it can't be all jumpers. Brunson needs to get into the paint in this series, if only to make the jumpers cleaner by getting the defense to collapse and kicking or swinging for catch-and-shoots instead of having to fire up a bunch of contested ones.
I believe in Brunson. How can you not? Even if he has to make a bunch of jumpers, he's capable. But the real boon to New York's chances in this series would be if he's able to consistently breach Castle and San Antonio's first line of defense.
6. Can Spurs survive non-Wemby minutes?
In the conference finals, the Spurs outscored the Thunder by 62 points across seven games when Wembanyama was on the floor. When he was off, they were outscored by 36 points. That's a 98-point swing, or 14 per game -- and for the entirely off the playoffs the Spurs are +188 with Wemby on the floor and -3 without him. It's going to be a massive part of this series. New York will want to make as much as hay as possible when he's on the bench, and San Antonio will look to build big enough cushions that the Luke Kornet minutes don't undermine all the starters' work.
7. Can Wemby flip the OG Anunoby script?
Statistically, nobody in the NBA defends Wembanyama more effectively than OG Anunoby.
Since Wemby was drafted, there are 20 players who have defended him for at least 100 half-court matchups. The player who he has tallied the fewest player points per 100 matchups against as his primary assignment is ... O.G. Anunoby.
— Caitlin Cooper (@C2_Cooper) May 20, 2026
This isn't an accident. Anunoby is a brick of a defender, and his being some nine inches shorter than Wemby actually serves as an advantage. It allows him to establish lower leverage, getting underneath Wembanyama. Anunoby is more easily able to push him off his spots. It will be difficult for Wemby to establish deep post position against Anunoby, as it was against Isaiah Hartenstein.
Wembanyama will need to roll with great force and catch on the move to be able to get downhill, but inevitably, he'll find himself faced up against Anunoby somewhere between the 3-point line and the elbow. From there, can he beat him? It won't be easy. Anunoby is stronger than Wembanyama, and quicker than him, too.
It could all lead to Wemby having to settle for a lot of jump shots over the top of Anunoby (or Josh Hart, who can present a lot of the same challenges as Anunoby). Can he make them efficiently? Can he find a way to overcome Anunoby's strength by attacking quickly, before he's set, to get into that paint with actual leverage in his favor? This is a major test for Wembanyama. One that he hasn't scored well on so far in his young career.
8. Will Knicks' jumpers continue to fall?
The Knicks score from all over the court, and they don't concentrate on one area. During the regular season, they ranked outside the top-10 in restricted-area attempts, paint attempts, midrange attempts and 3-point attempts per game. This is a good thing. They have an elite offense that can't be narrowed down to one or even a couple spots and/or actions.
That said, they lead the playoffs in shots inside the restricted area and paint points per game (53.3, up from 47.7 in the regular season). The odds of that continuing against the Spurs are low. Not only do the Spurs possess a stable of sturdy perimeter defenders, but behind them is the best paint protector in the world.
Shai Gilegous-Alexander just saw his layup attempts basically cut in half against San Antonio in the conference finals. Forced into a heavy jump-shot diet, he only converted at a 41% clip for the series, down from 55% in the regular season.
Here's where Jalen Brunson is perhaps better suited than SGA to score efficiently on San Antonio. He's a better, or at least more comfortable at volume, pull-up 3-point shooter, and overall the Knicks are a lights-out 3-point shooting team. During the regular season, they ranked fourth in 3-point percentage, and in the playoffs they are making 40% of their triples.
We've already talked about the importance of Josh Hart, specifically, performing as a shooter, but this needs to extends to all the Knicks, who are going to have to nourish their offense with a heavier jump-shot diet than they got used to through the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Will Mikal Bridges stay hot? His midrange fallaways are going to be a lot more challenging with Wemby's contest range. Will Anunoby have the legs to knock down 3s late in game and series after working so hard on Wembanyama? Can Towns hurt San Antonio from the perimeter? Will Shamet stay hot off the bench? A Miles McBride breakout would be nice. This will be a heavy jump-shot series for the Knicks. Bottom line: They have to make a good percentage of them.
9. How healthy is Mitchell Robinson?
Robinson says he intends to play in Game 1 after having surgery on a broken right pinky. Nobody knows how it happened. The Knicks said they're not going to "get into specifics." Seems fishy, but whatever. It doesn't matter how it happened. All that matters is whether Mitchell can play and how effective he can be.
Underhand free throws? Mitchell Robinson has a broken pinky and a big problem -- Rick Barry has the solution John Gonzalez
He doesn't shoot anyway, so the pinky won't be a problem there (could his free-throw shooting actually get any worse?). But controlling rebounds could be an issue, and this is a major part of Mitchell's potential value in this series. In addition to being a physical Wembanyama defender, Robinson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league.
The Knicks lead the playoffs with 17.7 second-chance points per game. Against a defense as tough as the Spurs you need as many extra possessions as you can get. Robinson isn't the only offensive rebounder. New York flies to the ball collectively, and when Wembanyama stretches out to contest shots, there should be a lot of chances for put-backs. The only reason OKC even stayed competitive in the first half of Game 7 was because the Thunder were all over the offensive glass, getting multiple shots on multiple possessions. Robinson can dominate in this area. Assuming he is able to play relatively unencumbered.
10. Can Spurs take care of the ball?
The Spurs committed 44 turnovers through in Games 1 and 2 vs OKC, the most ever through the first two games of a conference finals. Stephon Castle accounted for 20 of them, also a record. They cleaned it up from there and only committed 12 turnovers in Game 7 -- a major achievement for such a young team playing under that kind of pressure against such a physical, handsy, aggressive defense.
The easy thing to say is things will be easier against the Knicks by simple virtue of them not being the Thunder, and that's maybe true to a degree. But New York is a much more physical defense than you might think if you have only been paying half attention. The Knicks have created almost 16 turnovers per game in these playoffs, one fewer than OKC, and the 20 points per game they are scoring off those turnovers is basically identical to OKC's 20.7.
The Spurs want to play fast, pushing in transition and attacking decisively before New York can set it defense, but they have to do so with real care for the ball. It's a fine line to navigate in the heat of the Finals. New York could already have a possession advantage with offensive rebounds, and if the Spurs start giving possessions away with turnovers as well, it will be a major problem.
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