The entire soccer world held its breath when Lionel Messi exited Inter Miami's MLS recent regular season game against the Philadelphia Union in the 73rd minute with an apparent injury. Messi, considered by many to be the greatest to ever play the sport, will turn 39 during Argentina's 2026 World Cup campaign. Despite his age, he's expected to once again be a focal point for his national team but this time around, there's no pressure. No matter what Argentina ends up doing this summer, the 2026 World Cup will be a celebration of Messi and his contributions to the game. Oddly enough, that might be the formula for La Albiceleste to win the whole thing. And thankfully, Messi will be fit and ready to lead his team on the pitch.
A side which seemed to be unable to win an international trophy has now won three in a row heading into the World Cup, and we'll dive into the best bets for Argentina given their recent success. We'll also take a look at how to approach Messi's futures and how he fits into this squad, which is looking like a generational unit.
World Cup 2026 futures odds for Argentina (via FanDuel)
- To win the World Cup: +1000
- To reach the World Cup final: +470
- To reach the semifinal: +210
- To reach the quarterfinal: +100
- To reach the Round of 16: -210
Four teams sit ahead of the current World Cup holders to win the 2026 tournament, and Argentina are tied with Portugal (this won't turn into a Messi vs. Ronaldo debate) at +1000. This is somewhat surprising considering Argentina breezed through World Cup qualification with a 12-2-4 mark and a +21 goal differential. Their 1-0 loss to Ecuador on Sept. 9, 2025 was just their fifth defeat in an international match since the 2021 Copa America final. Lionel Scaloni, who has won better than 70% of his games as Argentina's manager, is still in charge. And what was once a young team celebrating a monumental achievement at the Maracana is now an experienced group looking to cement its place in soccer history.
One fateful night in Rio
A young Messi was humbled by Brazil 3-0 in the 2007 Copa America final, one summer after being eliminated by Germany in the World Cup quarterfinal round in penalties. At that point, it was just the beginning of what would go on to be a legendary career, so the setbacks weren't as emotionally damaging.
There was another quarterfinal exit at the 2010 World Cup thanks to Germany, but this was a 4-0 drubbing. Argentina were knocked out of their home 2011 Copa America on penalties in the quarterfinal round, this time by rivals Uruguay. They lost to Chile on penalties in the 2015 and 2016 Copa America finals, with Messi missing a spot kick in the latter match. There was another loss to Germany, this time in a World Cup final. After a Round of 16 exit against France at the 2018 World Cup and a 2-0 defeat against Brazil at the 2019 Copa America, it seemed like Argentina were cursed in international knockout games. The idea of the best player to don the Argentina uniform since Diego Maradona going trophy-less for his country seemed quite tangible.
La Albiceleste entered the 2021 Copa America final at the Maracana against Brazil wondering if this would be their best (and possibly last) shot at international glory under Messi. They were outclassed offensively and were dominated in possession, but they had the edge on the only place it mattered; the scoreboard. Angel di Maria's goal in the 22nd minute was the only one of the contest, and Argentina finally had something to lift under Messi. If the star's historic career ended here, it would already be a great story of triumph and overcoming heartbreak.
Great things happen when you take the monkey off someone's back. Extrapolate that seemingly across an entire country and the results are unimaginable. Argentina, despite losing the opening group stage match of the 2022 World Cup, went on to win the tournament and took out France in the final, getting some revenge for the 2022 defeat. They would also capture the 2024 Copa America title thanks to an extra-time goal from Lautaro Martinez, who started in the 2021 Copa America final. He wasn't the only one to enjoy this incredible journey.
Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, Nicolas Otamendi, Nicolas Tagliafico, Marcos Acuna, Lisandro Martinez, Rodrigo De Paul, Nahuel Molina, Julian Alvarez, Giovani Lo Celso, Leandro Paredes, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez and Emiliano Martinez have all made big contributions during this era. This is undoubtedly Argentina's golden generation but even with so many names on the list, everything centers around one man heading into the 2026 World Cup.
Lionel Messi World Cup futures odds (via FanDuel)
- Golden Boot winner: +1600
- Argentina's leading goalscorer: -105
Messi is reportedly good to go for the World Cup and was included in Argentina's final squad, though he might play sparingly in the team's two remaining friendlies prior to the competition to prevent further injury. He'll be playing in his sixth and likely final World Cup, looking for his fourth international trophy. Every win is important but I'm willing to bet that 2021 Copa win still holds a special place in Messi's heart. Something changed that night for him as well.
Kylian Mbappe beat Messi for the 2022 Golden Boot, though the Argentine led his team by a substantial margin with seven goals. Messi a slight favorite to lead Argentina in goals at the 2026 event, though there may be more value on Martinez (+340) given the forward's recent form.
Messi's role might also be different. He was surrounded by a group of younger players back in 2021, many likely believing they needed to cycle every play through him in order to be successful. This is now a veteran unit filled with players who have blossomed across the globe in domestic leagues. They love Messi and need him to be at his best, but they do not need him to do everything. That means Messi could operate more as a central attacking midfielder rather than a true forward, allowing the others to make runs while he delivers pinpoint passes which no one else can. As successful as a Messi-centric approach has been for Argentina, this campaign might not lead to many goals for the star.
A potentially tricky Round of 32 game
Even if Messi isn't scoring goals left and right, bettors are likely looking at Argentina as a team to target at the World Cup. Sitting in Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan), it's hard to see anyone but La Albiceleste finishing on top. They get the added benefit of not having to travel between their second and third group games. Assuming Argentina wins Group J, they'd get a Round of 32 matchup against the runner-up from Group H. At the moment, that's likely to be Uruguay.
Rivalry games are tough to predict but Argentina will be favored in that hypothetical Round of 32 contest. A win there would mean a Round of 16 game against either the Group D runner-up or Group G runner-up. There's a slight possibility the United States is involved here but the most likely opponent is one of Paraguay, Australia, Egypt or Iran. Argentina would be heavily favored to advance.
I detailed a potential quarterfinal match between Switzerland and Argentina when looking at the Swiss as a potential dark horse contender, but they'd be underdogs against the defending champions. If this was an Argentina squad with more turnover, I'd feel more strongly about an upset. However, as noted above, this is an experienced group which has achieved tremendous success and has benefitted from the lack of external pressure. A plucky Swiss team (or Colombia) is unlikely to derail Argentina, even if there's potential betting value for an upset.
Argentina best bets for World Cup 2026
Getting even money on Argentina to make the quarterfinal when their only real hurdle is expected to be Uruguay is already tremendous value. Saying they'd have to beat likely one of Switzerland, Portugal or Colombia to make a semifinal at +210 further adds to it. This is a team that has lost just five international matches since winning the 2021 Copa America title, and it's largely the same group of players coming back for more in 2026.
Spain, France and England are getting more love in the World Cup title market from the oddsmakers and those are excellent teams. That opens up value on a squad like Argentina, especially if Messi can operate without any injury concerns. I probably wouldn't back him to lead the team in goals but I'm much more confident backing this team to keep doing what it has been doing for the last five years. Argentina to make the semifinal provides excellent betting value, and I'm comfortable going a step further and backing this team to make yet another final at +470.
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