Women's NCAA Tournament predictions: College basketball experts reveal their teams to target for your bracket

Experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai share the teams they expect to make some noise in the Women's NCAA Tournament, which starts Friday

If you're a college basketball fan, it's the most wonderful time of the year. Upsets, comebacks, buzzer-beaters -- March has it all.

That chaos can make it tough to fill out your bracket, as any sense of predictability seems to be thrown out the window once the ball is tipped. That being said, the fun part is attempting to predict the unpredictable, so let's take a look at which teams you should take to make a run, which ones you should avoid, and factors you need to keep in mind when making your picks for the women's NCAA Tournament this year.

Experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have pored over the brackets to find the teams that might be overlooked as UConn enters as the overwhelming choice to win the title. 

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Calvin Wetzel, the site's lead writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks.

Here are some of the teams Wetzel and Barzilai like for the women's NCAA Tournament:

Women's NCAA Tournament bracket strategy

UConn is the safe pick

The Huskies haven't lost all season, and outside of a three-point win over Michigan in which they took their foot off the gas after having an 18-point halftime lead, no one has even come within 12 points of them. That's not just a product of an easy schedule, either. 

While the Big East doesn't provide as much of a challenge as the Big Ten or the SEC, UConn's strength of schedule ranks in the top 60 in the country, according to NET, and its non-conference SOS was the toughest of any Division I team.

No one can match the 1-2 punch of UConn's dynamic duo: potential 2026 No. 1 WNBA pick Azzi Fudd and National Player of the Year favorite Sarah Strong. If you're one to avoid too many risks in your bracket, pencil in UConn to complete the undefeated season and cut down the nets in Phoenix.

UCLA is worth a look

While UConn's schedule was much more difficult than it gets credit for, it didn't include UCLA -- the No. 2 overall seed. There are 17 seasons worth of data on HerHoopStats (think KenPom for the women's side), and in that span, this UCLA team has the highest rating of any non-UConn team ever. The Bruins don't boast the same unblemished record -- they suffered one loss to Texas in November -- but they faced the most difficult schedule in the nation and took care of almost everyone on it in impressive fashion.

UCLA, like UConn, almost gave up a big lead against Michigan before holding on to win by three but hasn't let anyone else come within two possessions since Thanksgiving. The Bruins racked up an incredible seven ranked wins by 20+ points, capped off by a 51-point drubbing of No. 2 seed Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament championship.

The centerpiece of this team is 6-foot-7 likely WNBA lottery pick Lauren Betts, but the talent and shooting around her is what makes the Bruins so dangerous. The most recent WNBA mock draft by The Athletic has the entire UCLA starting lineup going in the top 11, and when defenses double Betts in the post, any of the other four can make them pay. All four non-Betts starters are shooting better than 36% from deep, and they have combined to shoot over 40% on the season.

If UConn has the best top two, UCLA has the scariest top five, and if there's one team that has a chance to dethrone the defending champs, it's the Bruins. For those who prefer to go out on a limb with your brackets, UCLA is the pick to take home the title.

Non-No. 1 seed that could make a deep run

When Duke started the season 3-6, many people wrote the Blue Devils off. The preseason top-eight squad fell all the way out of the rankings. But the Blue Devils were competitive in five of those nine games, which included matchups with three of the top five seeds in the tournament as well as two other ranked teams in Baylor and West Virginia. It was, at that point, the toughest schedule in the country.

All they did since then was win 17 in a row and take home the ACC regular season and tournament titles. It's safe to say the Blue Devils are the dangerous team we thought they were all along, and while they got a tough draw by being placed in UCLA and LSU's region, those teams got a tough draw being placed in Duke's region as well.

Duke was oh-so-close to a Final Four last season, and don't be shocked if it pulls an upset or two to make a similar run this year.

Double-digit seed to watch

South Dakota State has been one of the most consistent and underrated programs of the last decade-plus, ranking in the top 50 in HerHoopStats Rating for 12 years running. The Jackrabbits are no strangers to postseason success, having qualified for 13 of the last 16 NCAA Tournaments. In that span, they also have three WNIT appearances, including a 2022 championship, and six NCAA Tournament wins, including a Sweet 16 run in 2019.

Head coach Aaron Johnston will have his team ready to face Washington, which by our metrics is overseeded as a No. 6 seed. The Huskies, ranked 35th in HerHoopStats Rating, are closer in team strength to a typical No. 9 seed. 

South Dakota State plays very disciplined defense, fouling at one of the lowest rates in the country, and Washington rarely gets to the line, so the Jackrabbits won't make it easy. 

On the other end, South Dakota State shoots 58% inside the paint -- the highest of any mid-major and 12th highest in D-I. Washington's lack of a true rim protector may be another factor pointing to an upset in this game.

If the Summit League champions pull off the first-round upset, they'll likely have TCU waiting for them in Round 2, which will be a much taller task. Either way, if you're looking for a double-digit seed capable of making some noise, look no further than South Dakota State.

Other considerations

Parity is growing on the women's side in recent years, but the favorites still tend to dominate the early rounds, and upsets are far more rare than on the men's side. Teams seeded in the top three of their region are a combined 371-1 in the round of 64, with the lone exception coming when No. 16 Harvard beat No. 1 Stanford in 1998 thanks in part to two key injuries for Stanford.

In addition to the talent disparity between the top teams and the double-digit seeds, another reason there are fewer upsets in the women's game is that the top four seeds in each region get home-court advantage. While a No. 14 or No. 15 seed has never won a first-round game, a handful have come close enough that perhaps a neutral-court matchup would have been enough to push at least one of them over the top. 

When filling out your women's bracket, keep this in mind and don't go too crazy picking Cinderellas.

Aside from true home court, venue location is important to consider for officially neutral-site games, as well. Clemson, for example, gets to stay in its home state in the first round, while USC will have to travel across the country to South Carolina to take on the Tigers. Texas, assuming it makes it to the second weekend, will get to play the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in-state as well, traveling three hours north to Fort Worth.

The bottom line

If your goal is to give yourself the best chance at office bragging rights, take these points into account before you hit submit. 

But of course, filling out a March Madness bracket is ultimately about having fun, so if that means picking your alma mater or the team with the best mascot, don't let the stats and trends get in your way!