Who should be on upset alert this weekend? Our experts predict who will make it through to the Elite Eight
By Isabel Gonzalez , Jack Maloney & Lindsay Gibbs Mar 26, 2026 at 1:07 pm ET • 7 min read 
Getty Images The Sweet 16 has arrived in the 2026 women's NCAA Tournament. Action is going down this weekend in Fort Worth and Sacramento, and only four teams will be left by the end of Monday night.
All four No. 1 seeds in the tournament -- UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina -- have made it to the Sweet 16, and they are all double-digit favorites in their Sweet 16 matchups. Our experts all expect them to move on to the Elite Eight. But who is on upset alert on Friday and Saturday? Let's make some Sweet 16 picks.
Women's March Madness Sweet 16 expert picks
All times Eastern. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 6 Notre Dame -- 2:30 p.m., Friday
Odds: Vanderbilt -5.5
Lindsay Gibbs 
Isabel Gonzalez 
Jack Maloney Vandy vs. Notre Dame 
Notre Dame Notre Dame 
Vanderbilt Gibbs: This was my bold prediction ahead of the tournament, and I don't want to chicken out now. I give the Fighting Irish the edge because Hannah Hidalgo can keep up with Mikayla Blakes on offense and actually bother her on defense. It's time for Niele Ivey to make her first Elite Eight as a head coach after four straight Sweet 16 exits.
Gonzalez: I think the Fighting Irish are peaking at the right time. Hannah Hidalgo is a very talented two-way player who can set the pace and take over when needed, but I also made my decision based on the full team effort we saw against Ohio State. Five players scored in double digits, while also rebounding and making big defensive plays. If they can all lock in again, the Fighting Irish have a really good chance against Vanderbilt.
Maloney: Notre Dame has played great basketball over the last few weeks, but, ultimately, I trust Vanderbilt a bit more. UConn and UCLA are the only teams that have a higher offensive rating in Quad 1 games than the Commodores (111.6), who are led by the nation's leading scorer, Mikayla Blakes. The one-on-one matchup between her and Hannah Hidalgo should be awesome.
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 North Carolina -- 5 p.m., Friday
Odds: UConn -27
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney UConn vs. UNC 
UConn UConn UConn Gibbs: I've written about how remarkable UNC's turnaround this season has been, and getting back to the Sweet 16 is a great achievement for Courtney Banghart and Co. The Tar Heels' roster is loaded with young talent, and they have the No. 1 recruit in the country coming to campus in a few months. The future is bright. But the immediate future, not so much. Friday afternoon might get ugly.
Gonzalez: The Huskies just have everything going for them right now. Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd are talented enough to carry a team, but this roster is dangerous because it is a lot deeper than just two players. UConn is dominant on both sides of the court, and what's crazy is we haven't even seen the Huskies' full potential yet. The first half against Syracuse was a taste of how scary they can be.
Maloney: Do I really need an explanation here?
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 4 Minnesota -- 7:30 p.m., Friday
Odds: UCLA -18.5
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney UCLA vs. Minnesota 
UCLA UCLA UCLA Gibbs: The Golden Gophers have had a wonderful season, and Amaya Battle gave us a March moment for the ages. But the Bruins have way too much talent, and Cori Close has this experienced and veteran group locked in.
Gonzalez: Minnesota is a good team in the middle of one of the best seasons in program history. However, the Bruins already picked up an almost 20-point victory against the Gophers in January. Cori Close's team is trying to go further than the Final Four before this group of seniors leaves the program, so it would take a very special performance from Minnesota for an upset.
Maloney: The Bruins haven't been as dominant in the first two rounds as the other No. 1 seeds. Is that concerning for their national title hopes? Perhaps, but they should have no trouble in the Sweet 16. The Bruins are far more talented than the Golden Gophers and won their previous meeting this season in Minneapolis by 18.
No. 2 LSU vs. No. 3 Duke -- 10 p.m., Friday
Odds: LSU -9
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney LSU vs. Duke 
Duke 
LSU Duke Gibbs: It has been extraordinary to see how much Duke has grown this season, and I think the Blue Devils' revenge tour continues against LSU. Duke punched first when the two teams played in December and had the Tigers on their heels through two-and-a-half quarters, but didn't yet have the unity and maturity to finish it off. Duke does now.
Gonzalez: The Blue Devils learned from their early season struggles and went on to win 17 straight games right after their 93-77 loss to LSU in December. That being said, LSU has also been more battle-tested since that first encounter. The Tigers are entering this matchup with a lot of momentum on both sides of the court, especially on offense with two explosive 100-point performances in the first two rounds.
Maloney: This is a true offense vs. defense battle. LSU set an NCAA Division I record with its 16th 100-point game of the season in their second-round win over Texas Tech, while Duke has the 14th-best defense in the country in Quad 1 games (95.4). I picked Duke over LSU in my bracket prior to the tournament, so I have to stick with that.
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Louisville -- 12:30 p.m., Saturday
Odds: Michigan -5
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney Michigan vs. Louisville 
Michigan Michigan Michigan Gibbs: I picked Louisville to win this in my bracket, but after seeing how good Syla Swords and Olivia Olson looked in the second half against NC State, I've changed my mind. Louisville is a deep, competitive and feisty team and will keep it close, but Michigan has the edge, talent-wise.
Gonzalez: This is a matchup that I feel could really go either way. I like the Wolverines' chances a little more because of how close they were to upsetting both UConn and UCLA during the regular season. They also looked ready to meet the moment in their second-round win against NC State, while Louisville almost couldn't put Alabama away. Michigan is clearly a team that can rise to the occasion, and the Sweet 16 is the perfect opportunity to do it.
Maloney: This should be a great game. Both teams are in the top 20 in the country in offensive rating and defensive rating in Quad 1 games, and are led by balanced attacks. Here, I'll go with the team with the best player, and that's Michigan, which is led by third-team All-American Olivia Olson.
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Kentucky -- 3 p.m., Saturday
Odds: Texas -14.5
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney Texas vs. Kentucky 
Texas Texas Texas Gibbs: The Longhorns have taken things to another level since the postseason began, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Rori Harmon will make Tonie Morgan's life pretty miserable.
Gonzalez: Texas already beat Kentucky once this season. The Longhorns made the Final Four last year while struggling to make shots consistently. They kept the same key leaders, but the offense has gotten significantly more dangerous -- as shown by their 100-58 win over Oregon in the second round.
Maloney: The Longhorns, led by Madison Booker and an elite defense, are on a mission this season, and I don't see them losing to a Kentucky team that they already beat by double digits in February. Especially considering that they'll have a home-court advantage in Fort Worth, which is just a few hours up the road from Austin.
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 4 Oklahoma -- 5 p.m., Saturday
Odds: South Carolina -18
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney South Carolina vs. Oklahoma 
S. Carolina S. Carolina S. Carolina Gibbs: The way Aaliyah Chavez erupted during overtime in their January meeting is one of my favorite memories of this season. But while Chavez will have some breakout moments in this Sweet 16 game, South Carolina should get the win pretty easily. Raven Johnson is on a mission
Gonzalez: Although I know storylines don't win games, I just don't see a world in which Dawn Staley doesn't have the Gamecocks ready to avenge their overtime loss from earlier this season. OU freshman Aaliyah Chavez played like a veteran when she took over in that extra period to win it, but the stakes are higher this time around.
Maloney: Oklahoma is the only team besides Texas to beat South Carolina this season, but that win came in overtime in Norman. The Gamecocks, who have rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament, are the better team regardless of the previous result. They'll be out for revenge and will get it.
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Virginia -- 7:30 p.m., Saturday
Odds: TCU -9.5
Lindsay Gibbs Isabel Gonzalez Jack Maloney TCU vs. Virginia 
TCU TCU TCU Gibbs: This is the pick I struggled with the most. Both teams barely survived the second round, though TCU's form was more concerning because the Horned Frogs were the favorite. But while I think this could be close, and UVA's run isn't a fluke, TCU has Olivia Miles. And I simply don't believe she will allow her team to lose this one.
Gonzalez: My heart wants to see Virginia's Cinderella run continue, but TCU is going to be really tough to beat. Olivia Miles is a player I trust during big moments, and she has already been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament, with a triple-double in the first round while flirting with another one in the second round.
Maloney: No. 10 Virginia, the only double-digit seed left in the tournament, and the first team to reach the Sweet 16 after beginning their journey in the First Four, has been living on the edge throughout their Cinderella run. Against TCU, the magic will run out. The Cavaliers don't have the defense (105.7 defensive rating in Quad 1 games, 61st in the country) to slow down the Horned Frogs' high-powered attack led by Olivia Miles.
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