Women's March Madness bold predictions: Michigan and Notre Dame poised for big upsets

There is always room for a little madness once the action gets started

The first round of the women's NCAA Tournament is finally here, and for just the third time in history and first time since 2013, all four No. 1 seeds are the teams that made the previous year's Final Four. While most people are picking UConn and UCLA to meet in the championship game, there is always room for a little madness once the action gets started.

But expecting the madness is easy. Pinpointing when exactly it will occur is the hard part. With that in mind, here are some bold predictions for the Big Dance from our CBS Sports experts.

UCLA will not make the championship game

I definitely do think the Bruins are talented enough to win the whole thing. That being said, I have to make a bold prediction, so here it is: UCLA won't make the championship game. Yes, I'm well aware that their resume was strong enough to even challenge UConn for the top overall seed, but this is March and no team is safe. This is a brutal side of the bracket with UCLA having to get through teams that have already shown they are very capable of upsets, such as Ole Miss, Duke and LSU.

If the Bruins can survive Sacramento 2, the winner of Fort Worth 3 will be anything but a walk in the park. Michigan has already given the Bruins -- and UConn -- an upset scare this season, so anyone facing the Wolverines should tread lightly. However, I think Texas has an even better chance at making the Final Four again and maybe even further. The Longhorns impressed me last year and now they are even stronger with a much-improved offense. Texas already beat UCLA once during the Players Era Championship, which was a neutral court. I don't think that was a fluke because the Longhorns have also beaten South Carolina twice this season and won the SEC Tournament. -- Isabel Gonzalez

Michigan will take down Texas and make the Final Four

Michigan owes me an upset -- and I think March Madness is the perfect time to collect.

I had the Wolverines pegged as a threat in the Big Ten conference tournament, but they couldn't get past Iowa to advance to the championship. Now they get another shot at proving themselves on the biggest stage, and I believe Kim Barnes Arico's squad could knock off Texas and shake up the Final Four picture.

This isn't just wishful thinking. As Isabel pointed out, Michigan has already pushed both UCLA and UConn to the wire this season -- two programs that don't lose close games very often. The Wolverines know nhow to compete with the elite, they just need one more big moment to tip the scales.

Statistically, the Wolverines have an edge beyond the arc. The perimeter trio of Syla Swords, Mila Holloway, and Olivia Olson has the firepower to stretch Texas's defense and create the kind of chaos that tournament upsets are made of. If those three are hitting, Michigan has a solid chance. March rewards teams that are built for moments. I still believe Michigan just might be built for this one. -- Erica Ayala

All four No. 1 seeds will make the Final Four

I completely understand if your initial reaction is that this is not a bold prediction. However, since the NCAA began sanctioning a women's tournament in 1982, there have only been four instances of every No. 1 seed reaching the Final Four: 1989, 2012, 2015 and 2018. That's four times in 43 tournaments (the event was cancelled in 2020) or 9.3% of the time. I'd argue, therefore, that this qualifies as a bold prediction, especially considering that this year's four No. 1 seeds -- UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina -- were also in the Final Four last season.

These four teams have been on another level this season. They all won at least 31 games, have a combined 127-7 record overall and a combined 54-7 record in Quad 1 games. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but I just don't see one of these teams getting knocked off before the Final Four. -- Jack Maloney

Notre Dame will make the Elite Eight

This was not a regular season for the history books in South Bend. Notre Dame enters this NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed, its lowest seed since 2009. That also happens to be the last time the Fighting Irish failed to advance to the Sweet 16, excluding 2021, when they failed to make the field in Niele Ivey's first season at the helm. Given the seeding, it would make sense for that streak to end in 2026. However, I actually think Notre Dame could not only get to the Sweet 16, but advance to the first Elite Eight of the Ivey era.

The Irish are peaking at the right time. They won seven of their final eight games in the regular season, including taking down then-No. 10 Louisville in the finale, and then knocked off NC State on their way to the ACC semifinals. They have a very short rotation -- Ivey regularly plays only seven players -- but having the sensational Hannah Hidalgo playing some of the best basketball of her career more than makes up for that.

That doesn't mean it will be easy. Notre Dame faces a dangerous No. 11 Fairfield in the first round, then is projected to face No. 3 Ohio State in the second round and No. 2 Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16. That means going through two of the top scorers in the game, Jaloni Cambridge and Mikayla Blakes. But Hidalgo isn't just able to match their scoring prowess, she's arguably the best defensive guard in the country. I like Notre Dame's chances to make their own luck this March. -- Lindsay Gibbs