The usual criticism of playoff bloat in Major League Baseball centers around how it whittles away at the importance of the sport's signature 162-game regular season. That's truer than ever, what with the 12-team postseason field that's been in place since 2022. This time of year, though, there's another unintended consequence of playoff expansion that's being acutely felt: the diminished number of obvious sellers leading up to the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Really, it's the third available wild-card spot in each league -- this is what took us from a 10-team playoff field to 12 -- that muddles the buy-sell-hold pre-deadline decisions. While the deadline is more than a month away, the bar for contending for that third wild-card spot in each league is tempting a lot of teams that, prior to 2022, would've been obvious sellers.
The point of playoff expansion was to rake in more revenue, mostly via additional media rights fees. The second point was to give an additional stock of teams hopes for contending each year and, thus, hoisting the World Series trophy each year (as MLB's playoffs have proved time and again, just make it and you have a shot at a deep run). The trade deadline, though, is one of MLB's signature occurrences, and it draws eyeballs and ears to the sport at a time when not much else is going on in the sports world, at least insofar as major North American sports leagues are concerned. This year's trade deadline seems especially at risk of being undermined by the expanded playoffs.
To put a finer point on this, let's have a look at the teams currently in wild-card position in each league. First up, the American League:
Team Record Winning % Games in playoff position44-33
.571
+6 ½
42-39
.519
+2 ½
39-41
.488
--
And now the National League:
Team Record Winning % Games in playoff position44-36
.550
+1
42-36
.538
--
43-37
.538
--
So, yeah, let's first talk about the American League. As noted above, the third wild card has been a presence in each league since the 2022 postseason. In all, eight third wild-card teams have been a part of the playoffs, and those third wild-card teams have averaged 86.4 wins during the regular season. No third wild-card team has thus far won more than 89 games, and last year's Reds hold the "record" for fewest wins by a third wild-card team with 83. Well, the Blue Jays, current occupiers of the final playoff slot in the AL, are on pace to go 79-83. That would give them the worst third wild-card record by a margin of four full games (and also make them the first losing team across a full MLB season to make the playoffs).
As an aside that emphasizes the uninspiring nature of the AL this season, the Guardians, who presently hold the second wild-card spot, are on pace for just 84 wins. That would tie them for the fourth-worst record by a playoff qualifier in a full MLB season. Need more? Three – three ! – AL teams presently have a positive run differential, and one of them is the Rays at +2.
The upshot of all this mediocrity is that right now three teams are all one game back of the Blue Jays -- the A's (with their AL-worst -57 run differential), Astros, and Rangers. The Orioles and Twins are a mere two games out of the third wild-card spot, and the Tigers are five games back. Detroit is significant because their ace and the back-to-back Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is the most coveted name of all leading up to the deadline. He's in his walk year, and there's no indication that a long-term extension with the Tigers is a possibility. As such, he's likely to be traded in the absence of contention. Therein lies the rub. Yes, the Tigers are a disappointing 34-46 on the season -- a 93-loss pace -- but they're within range of playoff position here at the rough midpoint of the season. As we've seen time and again, any team that makes the playoffs, no matter how ordinary their regular season, has the potential for a deep run and maybe even a title. It's even more of a possibility when you have a pitcher like Skubal at the front end. That's the dilemma for Detroit as we head toward July. If they're within, say, three or four games of that third wild-card spot by the time August arrives, it'll be hard to justify trading Skubal. That's especially the case since it'll be their last run with Skubal -- for a team that hasn't won the World Series in more than 40 years.
At the bottom of the AL standings, we have the Royals, Angels, and Red Sox, none of whom are more than six games behind Toronto. Let's note that Angels owner Arte Moreno reportedly isn't inclined to sell off any major contributors leading up to the deadline. If current trends hold, it's going to be perhaps the thinnest crop of AL sellers we've seen in, well, the history of such things.
While the NL isn't as bleak as the AL this season, it's still a jumbled middle. Note all the compression you see in those wild-card standings above. Right now, you have five teams -- the Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Pirates -- within three games of the final spot. Given how tight margins are from top wild-card spot to last, you in essence have eight teams jousting for three spots. Throw in the three division leaders, and that leaves four teams -- the Reds, Mets, Giants, and Rockies -- who profile as potential sellers. There are qualifiers with each.
The Reds are just 5 ½ games out of playoff position, so they could be within close range in a matter of days. The Mets aren't trading the likes of Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, and their two most interesting deadline hypotheticals are Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes. Well, Peralta has a 4.83 ERA and a 4.32 FIP, and Holmes is on the 60-day injured list with a broken fibula and likely won't be ready for game action until after the deadline (that's not necessarily a deal-breaker, as Shane Bieber and the Jays proved last year). The Giants are looking to be active, but they're not trading ace Logan Webb and are otherwise just looking to move unappealing contracts. The Rockies have … Mickey Moniak and Antonio Senzatela, who's a reliever now. On the upside for those hoping for an active deadline, the Cardinals may look to move veteran contributors like Dustin May and Lars Nootbaar even if they remain in contention, but that's a difficult needle to thread for lead decision-maker Chaim Bloom, who would risk squandering revived fan enthusiasm if he weakens instead of strengthens a contending roster.
It's still almost six weeks until the deadline, so there's plenty of time for this to get sorted out. Still, having three wild-card spots in each league risks lowering the bar for playoff relevance, and indeed that's what's happening right now across MLB. An unworthy in October is a concern for October, but the bottlenecks in the wild-card standings may lead to a more immediate concern – a trade deadline light on sellers and, thus, light on action.
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