Image source, SNSImage caption, Rangers drew with Olympiakos in Greece in the Europa League in 2024
ByClive LindsayBBC Sport Scotland- Published1 hour ago
It has been a steady stream of bad news for Scotland's club sides in European competition in the past couple of seasons, but events in Greece over the weekend could make it less of a tragedy for one of the three potential Scottish Premiership champions.
Such has been the drop in Scotland's coefficient in recent seasons that title winners Celtic and runners-up Rangers both had to enter the Champions League at the qualifying stage this season - and both failed to do so, dropping down to the Europa League.
It is the same again for next season as Heart of Midlothian, Rangers and Celtic all chase the title and the other spot in the Champions League qualifiers.
If Hearts, whose lead over Rangers was down to a point after the weekend results, or third-top Celtic finish top, they will be one of four league champions placed in the play-off round next season.
However, if Rangers secure their first title since 2021, Danny Rohl's side could qualify directly for the league phase - and it would be thanks to Olympiakos. Or, more precisely, to AEK Athens.
If that's all Greek to you, read on.
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Since 2024, European governing body Uefa has given club coefficients over the latest five-year period an important role via something called "title-holder rebalancing".
Therefore, should the Champions League winners have also qualified for the league phase via their domestic league position, "the club with the best individual coefficient of all the domestic champions involved in qualifying will enter the league phase directly instead of the original round they had qualified for".
Ironically, last season's beneficiaries were Olympiakos, with European champions Paris St-Germain having already qualified as French title winners.
The Piraeus side had finished seven points behind Athens neighbours AEK in the Greek Super League, but this season the positions look likely to be reversed.
A 1-0 defeat at home to an AEK side for whom former Hearts left-back James Penrice was back in the starting line-up after a two-game absence leaves Olympiakos five points adrift of the leaders.
Indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's side have slipped to third behind PAOK Salonica, who drew 0-0 at home to Panathinaikos with former Celtic left-back Greg Taylor an unused substitute on the bench.
There are five games left of the title play-offs, during which the top four play one another twice and statisticians suggest Olympiakos only have a 16% chance of securing a 49th domestic title.
Olympiakos are again the club with the most coefficient points from countries outside the top six in Europe, but if they fail to retain that title, Rangers are next in line for that spot straight into the Champions League's league phase.
There will be more than a few Rangers supporters monitoring the results when AEK entertain PAOK while Panathinaikos host Olympiakos next on Sunday, 19 April.
And what of Celtic & Hearts?
So why would Hearts and Celtic not benefit similarly?
Well, currently Olympiakos are 34th in the club coefficient table, while Rangers are in 37th.
However, Celtic are in 58th and Hearts way down in 154th, so it is Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk or Hungary's Ferencvaros who would be next in line to take the vacant spot if the Ibrox side and the Greeks both fail to win their leagues.
Of course, Liverpool could spoil their chances considering Scotland captain Andy Robertson's side are the only ones in this season's quarter-finals who are not in a Champions League qualifying place in their domestic league currently.
A guaranteed place in the Champions League proper next season would be a welcome boost for Scotland's coefficient considering recent results, even if the benefit would not be felt until a few years down the line.
Celtic finished a disappointing 21st in the Europa League this season, while Rangers were down in 32nd out of 36 teams.
Aberdeen and Hibernian failed to make it through the Europa League qualifiers, while only the Dons played in the Conference League group stage as Hibs and Dundee United fell short.
Already, Scotland will be down to one Champions League place after next season, while the country's overall allocation in Uefa's three competitions will be down from five to four, with teams having to also enter at earlier rounds.
It will only get worse before it can get better again and Rangers will hope they get the chance to improve that coefficient via direct entry to the Champions League next season.
