Who will win title? The big prediction special

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Will Pep Guardiola or Mikel Arteta be lifting the Premier League trophy next month?

Published1 hour ago

With five games to go, Manchester City and Arsenal are only separated on goals scored at the top of the Premier League table.

"It's a new league now," says Gunners boss Mikel Arteta, whose side had been top of the table for 209 days until Wednesday.

Manchester City's 2-1 win over Arsenal on Sunday boosted their hopes - and a 1-0 victory at Burnley on Wednesday sent them top.

Who is going to win the title now?

BBC Sport has got pundits, reporters and fans to predict a score for each club's five remaining games - to tell us who will be the champions.

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What do the reporters say?

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Shamoon Hafez is the BBC's Manchester City reporter

BBC Sport's Manchester City reporter Shamoon Hafez: "The handbrake is about to come off.

"With the title on the line, both teams will be free-scoring in the final five games of the Premier League campaign. They won't have flawless records - there will be a draw apiece and results will dictate both teams ending up with the same goal difference of +46. Although Manchester City have a tougher run-in than Arsenal on paper, their knowhow in terms of getting the job done during a tight race will prove crucial.

"We've had the Agueroooo goal, now we're about to see Semenyoooo doing similar. The Gunners will be leading against Crystal Palace on the final day of the season with one hand touching the Premier League trophy on goal difference.

"But City's January signing will score in injury time against Aston Villa to level the metrics and hand Pep Guardiola's side the title by virtue of scoring more goals than Arsenal, sparking wild celebrations at Etihad Stadium.

"It will allow City to complete a second domestic treble and a tearful Guardiola will sail off into the sunset after a decade of unprecedented success.

"Stranger things have happened in football, right?"

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Alex Howell is the BBC's Arsenal reporter

BBC Sport's Arsenal reporter Alex Howell: "Even though Arsenal have lost the momentum in the title race and have won just one of their past six games in all competitions, I still see them being champions at the end of the season.

"That's because Manchester City have a tougher run of games and I believe that Pep Guardiola's side will drop points too.

"I can see Mikel Arteta's side winning four of their five remaining league games with Manchester City drawing against Everton and Bournemouth, who are both chasing European football.

"There were positives for the Gunners even as they lost 2-1 to City last Sunday.

"Arteta selected Eberechi Eze and Martin Odegaard, who showed that they could be key in providing chances and a goal threat in an Arsenal attack that has increasingly looked short of ideas and fluidity in recent weeks.

"The title could be decided by goal difference depending on results and I think that Eze and Odegaard are going to have some big moments in deciding where the trophy ends up."

What does BBC's predictions expert say?

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Former Blackburn striker Chris Sutton - a Premier League title winner on the last day in 1995 - predicts the results of every top-flight game for BBC Sport

Former Celtic striker Chris Sutton predicts the outcome of all 380 Premier League games for BBC Sport - so he seemed an obvious choice to have his say on the title run-in.

"In the reverse fixtures, Arsenal beat all five of the teams they still have to play this season, by an aggregate score of 8-1. I think they will beat all five of them again," he said.

"Of the teams City have to play, they lost away at Aston Villa in October but beat everyone else.

"But I think City's games now are tougher, because they have to play Everton and Bournemouth away. I think they will drop points in one of those games and it is more likely to be at Everton.

"For Arsenal, I am expecting them to beat Newcastle on Saturday. Newcastle have given them a good game in the past but they are struggling at the moment and, with what's at stake, Arsenal should get the job done.

"The tricky game for them is West Ham away. It comes a few days after they play the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid, which makes it even trickier, but I still think they will edge it.

"The way I see it when I've worked out the remaining games, Arsenal will win it.

"I know City have just beaten them, which was massive, but I don't think it is straightforward for Pep Guardiola's side from here - and I also don't think Arsenal are as bad as some people are making out."

But he asks if City's forwards could be a key factor.

"Could Erling Haaland be the difference this season?" Sutton continued. "I looked at how many Premier League goals he has scored each season since he joined City in 2021 and his totals were 36, 27, 22 and - so far this season - 24.

"Arsenal's top Premier League scorers over the same period have scored 15, 16, nine and Viktor Gyokeres has got 12 this season.

"I still think Arsenal can win it, I really do. But if you are looking for a difference maker, someone who will kill these games off, then Arsenal had Gyokeres on the bench at the weekend [against City].

"If City do it, that will be why - they have some great attackers, and Rayan Cherki is coming to the fore.

"But I still think Arsenal could just click again, and it will go to the wire.

"City's goal difference is better than theirs at the minute but they have already played Burnley at home, and beat them 5-1 in September.

"Arsenal have to play Burnley at the Emirates. If they need to boost their goal difference at that stage, then that could be their chance."

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The AI predictions were generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat - we asked the tool to 'predict Arsenal and Manchester City's remaining Premier League results'

Every week Sutton takes on a guest, usually from the entertainment world, in his predictions - as well as taking on AI chatbot Copilot and the BBC readers.

AI is doing better over the season than the expert in terms of total points scored for its predictions. But that is skewed by the points system that gives 40 points for an exact score and 10 points for the correct result.

It has predicted City and Arsenal will both win their five remaining games - with Pep Guardiola's side taking the title on goal difference.

Sutton was talking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan

What about the fans?

BBC fan writers Laura Kirk-Francis and Emily Brobyn have both had a go at predicting the champions too.

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Laura Kirk-Francis is an Arsenal fan writer for BBC Sport

Arsenal fan Kirk-Francis: "My hope for Arsenal's first league title in 22 years rests on David Moyes. I have deluded myself into thinking that the Everton manager, under whom Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta played for six years, will take points off Manchester City as a tribute and a favour to his former captain.

"Beyond that, Arsenal should feel galvanised by the performance at the weekend, with the error from goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma perhaps also providing a glimmer of hope that there are flaws within this Manchester City side. Or maybe just one flaw, but that could be all that's needed.

"On paper, Arsenal have a slightly easier run-in but the momentum is very much with Manchester City.

"Faith and fear both demand you believe in something you cannot see. Today I choose faith (for the next few hours at least)."

Find more from Laura Kirk-Francis at the Latte Firm podcast , external

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Emily Brobyn is a Manchester City fan writer for BBC Sport

City fan Brobyn: "I really believed at one point that this was a season too soon for this evolving, young Manchester City squad. Nobody is more surprised that City are still in the title race than me - a period of sloppy draws has been followed by powerhouse performances against Arsenal twice, Liverpool and Chelsea.

"But I believe the final games of the title race could still spring surprise results. City have the momentum, but their positive display at the Etihad will give Arsenal belief.

"I think there could be a final day shootout - winner takes all. It could be down to whoever scores the most between now and the end - and whoever is brave enough to feel the fear, but embrace that energy and turn it into their driving force.

"I say City may just edge it on goal difference."

Emily Brobyn is regularly on BBC Radio Manchester - find all their Manchester City audio here