Who will win the Masters? Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy eye history as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau find form

Who will win the Masters? Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy eye history as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau find form

The 90th edition of the Masters will be unlike any of the 89 that came before it as practice begins Monday at Augusta National Golf Club

By Patrick McDonald Apr 6, 2026 at 9:12 am ET • 12 min read

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With every passing edition of the Masters, the storylines abound at Augusta National Golf Club. With nearly 100 players in the field each year, and most notable names rounding into form as the first major championship of the season begins, games are peaking at the right time as the best golfers in the world eye history and the green jacket that goes with it.

And wouldn't you know it? This all goes down at the precise right time -- just as the azaleas have bloomed and Augusta National welcomes patrons from the world swarming its gates.

Rory McIlroy rolls into Augusta, Georgia, with less pressure on his shoulders than ever before. While he would undoubtedly love to become the first back-to-back Masters champion since Tiger Woods, earning the green jacket in 2025 and becoming the sixth player to complete the grand slam were career achievements more than a decade in the making.

Unlike most years, there is not a single name that stands out as the most talked about entering this year's playing of the Masters. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler normally holds that mantle, but a slow start to the season (for him) has few discussing the significant history on the line for the Texan. Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm have been playing tremendous golf thus far in 2026, though because both play on LIV Golf rather than the PGA Tour, some of their successes have flown under the radar.

Let's dive into the most captivating storylines entering the 90th Masters with the week just kicking off from one of the nation's most pristine courses.

Watch all four rounds of the 2026 Masters with expanded coverage from CBS Sports. It starts Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best in the world on Featured Groups, Amen Corner and holes 15 & 16. Watch those streams live across Paramount+, CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App with extended broadcast coverage Saturday and Sunday from 12-2 p.m. on Paramount+ and 2-7 p.m. on CBS.

Don't tell Scottie

Ahead of The Players Championship, Scheffler more or less told the media to cool it. The world No. 1 has not finished outside the top 25 in a tournament since the 2024 BMW Championship and already has a win this season, but the constant barrage of top 10 results has led some to consider a T24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T22 at The Players as disappointments.

The horror!

Statistically speaking, Scheffler is operating at an elite clip, closer to his level of play in 2023 as opposed to the last two years when he combined for 15 worldwide wins. So, why is that, exactly? The simple answer: his iron play. The man who led the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach in 2023, 2024 and 2025 has been average with his irons in 2026. That's not average for Scheffler's standards; that's average for PGA Tour standards (+0.08 strokes gained approach per round).

It's fair to suggest that if Scheffler returns to the iron player of the last three years, he will return to the winner's ceremony for the fifth straight Masters -- this being his third as the man slipping on the green jacket and not putting it on someone else. The historical implications of such are hard to ignore.

Time warps this day and age, but span out a year and picture what Scheffler would achieve with a win this week. He would have not one, not two, but three of the four major championships, something only Tiger and Ben Hogan have accomplished. (And, of course, Bobby Jones).

Scheffler would be tied for the fourth most Masters wins behind only Tiger, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, but he would be the quickest to three as those three aforementioned legends all won their third in start No. 8. He would be up to five major championships alongside Brooks Koepka, McIlroy, Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson -- all before the age of 30. He would have you forgetting about those "worrying" top 25 finishes.

Most Masters wins

GolferTotalYears

Jack Nicklaus

6

1963, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1975, 1986

Tiger Woods

5

1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2019

Arnold Palmer

4

1958, 1960, 1962, 1964

Jimmy Demaret

3

1940, 1947, 1950

Sam Snead

3

1949, 1952, 1954

Gary Player

3

1961, 1974, 1978

Nick Faldo

3

1989, 1990, 1996

Phil Mickelson

3

2004, 2006, 2010

Scottie Scheffler & 9 others

2

2022, 2024

Rory's return

Just 12 months ago, McIlroy stepped into the press building with the green jacket wrapped around him, introduced as the 89th Masters champion and winner of the career grand slam. McIlroy was asked to share his thoughts on the moment. Instead, he posed a question himself.

"What are we all going to talk about next year?"

With a Masters win comes the opportunity to host the Champions Dinner and wear the green jacket around outside the property for a year, but it also comes with a chance at even more history -- a successful defense. McIlroy could become the fourth in tournament history to win back-to-back Masters with someone like Scheffler showing in recent years that threatening defenses are possible.

McIlroy's march to the 2026 Masters has not been without its speed bumps. After shooting out of the gates with a runner-up finish at Riviera, where he was able to hit a variety of shots off the tee and all sorts of different windows with his irons, the five-time major champion has slowed.

Back spasms kept him out of the weekend at Arnie's Place and prevented him from arriving at The Players until the day before the tournament. He was able to give it a go at TPC Sawgrass and make the cut, but the hiccup brought questions as he has not played since and decided to prepare for his defense at home.

A win would pull him alongside ick Faldo for most majors by a European.

Best Masters defenses since Tiger Woods in 2002

GolferYear of DefenseResult

Scottie Scheffler

2025

4th

Scottie Scheffler

2023

T10

Jordan Spieth

2016

T2

Tiger Woods

2006

T3

Phil Mickelson200510th

The other guys

They may have been out of sight the first few months traversing through Riyadh, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Africa, but Rahm and DeChambeau should not be out of mind. Both players have roared to start their 2026 seasons with Rahm winning in Hong Kong and still without a finish outside the top five and DeChambeau winning in the playoffs in Singapore and South Africa -- the latter over Rahm.

Despite Rahm being a Masters champion, DeChambeau may draw the bigger spotlight this week because, well, he is DeChambeau. The two-time U.S. Open champion was the first-round leader in 2024 before rounds of 73-75-73 upended his chances. Last year, he improved with rounds of 69-68-69 before a final-round 75 left him on the wrong side of the final pairing with McIlroy.

Coming in with two straight wins, it will be hard for many to resist the temptation to tab DeChambeau as the 2026 champion, but when looking at the numbers from this season, it is startling how much better Rahm has performed. The Spaniard is not only the best player on LIV Golf, he has also been the best player in the world in terms of total strokes gained.

He is off to one of the fastest starts of his career, rivaling his run to Augusta National in 2023 when he ultimately slipped on the green jacket. While he is without a top 10 finish in his last two trips to the Masters, Rahm ranks third behind only Jordan Spieth and Scheffler in terms of total strokes gained at Augusta National among those who have played at least 20 rounds.

Season statistics (career ranks)

GolferTotal strokes gainedOff the teeApproachAround the greenPutting

Jon Rahm

+2.69 (1st)

+0.78 (9th)

+0.97 (2nd)

+0.28 (4th)

+0.66 (1st)

Bryson DeChambeau

+1.64 (5th)

+0.96 (6th)

+0.21 (5th)

+0.23 (2nd)

+0.24 (6th)

Rest vs. Rust

So … where has everyone been? Ever since the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play was removed from the calendar, the world's best have scattered (instead of gathered) ahead of the Masters. The advent of LIV Golf added to this fracture in preparation, leading to a relevant internal battle players must face ahead of this year's Masters: rest vs. rust.

Collin Morikawa was arguably the most confident player in the world heading into the Florida Swing, but he has not been seen since he walked off TPC Sawgrass, grabbing his back one hole into his Players Championship. The two-time major champion was in the field for the Texas Open but pulled out before the tournament started, leading to further speculation about his status.

Patrick Reed, the 2018 Masters champion, raced through the Middle East at the beginning of the year, but he hasn't made much noise since. Reed decided to forgo the Asian Swing on the DP World Tour and has not played since the beginning of March. 

Scheffler, McIlroy, Cameron Young and Justin Rose all chose not to play since The Players for a variety of reasons.

Meanwhile, LIV Golf had held events in Florida the week before the last three Masters. The last two took place at Trump National Doral (now on the PGA Tour schedule -- snip, snap, snip, snap) and the other at Orange County National in Orlando. Before this, Rahm and DeChambeau had played in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play before the Masters, giving them just a single week of rest between their final event and the first major of the season. 

Where've ya been?

PlayerLast Tournament CompletedResultEnd DateCollin MorikawaArnold Palmer Invitational5th March 8Patrick ReedJoburg OpenT10March 8Scottie Scheffler

Players Championship

T22

March 15

Rory McIlroy

Players Championship

T46

March 15

Cameron YoungPlayers ChampionshipWINMarch 15Justin RosePlayers ChampionshipT13March 15Jon Rahm

LIV Golf South Africa

P2

March 22

Bryson DeChambeau

LIV Golf South Africa

WIN

March 22

Matt Fitzpatrick

Valspar Championship

WIN 

March 22

Xander Schauffele

Valspar Championship

T4

March 22

Jacob Bridgeman

Valspar Championship

T14

March 22

Justin ThomasValspar ChampionshipT30March 22Viktor Hovland

Valspar Championship

MC

March 22

First time in a long time for a first-timer?

They seem to get closer and closer by the year, but a debutant has not won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. As an aside, I highly recommend watching the final round broadcast of the 1979 Masters (tough to believe Ed Sneed did not win). This year marks the first Masters since Zoeller died in November 2025.

In the last six Masters, three debutants have finished runner-up: Sungjae Im in 2020, Will Zalatoris in 2021 and Ludvig Åberg in 2024. Just like those three, this year's crop of first-timers has its fair share of candidates that could break this nearly 50-year-long drought.

The group includes the lone multiple-time winner on the PGA Tour in 2026 (Chris Gotterup), the FedEx Cup points leader (Jacob Bridgeman), the player who nearly won three DP World Tour events in a row (Casey Jarvis), a man who won three times on the PGA Tour just last season (Ben Griffin) and the Dane who conquered Royal Melbourne this winter (Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen).

Notable debutants

OWGRGolferAchievements

9

Chris Gotterup

4x PGA Tour winner, 3rd at 2025 Open

16

Ben Griffin

3x PGA Tour winner, top 10s at 2025 U.S. Open, PGA Championship

17

Jacob Bridgeman

Genesis Invitational winner

28

Ryan Gerard

1x PGA Tour winner

37

Marco Penge

3x DP World Tour winner

59

Harry Hall

1x PGA Tour winner

68

Rasmus Neegaard-Petersen

Australian Open winner

69

Casey Jarvis

South Africa Open winner

102

Tom McKibbin

Hong Kong Open winner

Rose's redemption

On the 40th anniversary of Nicklaus' win at age 46, Rose rising to the occasion and finally slipping on the green jacket would almost feel poetic. The 45-year-old has accomplished everything there is to around Augusta National except finishing atop the leaderboard by himself once play is completed.

Rose has a record five first-round leads and finished runner-up three times, two of those near misses coming in playoffs to Sergio Garcia in 2017 and McIlroy last year. He comes into this year's tournament knowing time is against him, but defying conventional wisdom anyway.

Rose climbed to world No. 3 with his runaway, wire-to-wire win at Torrey Pines earlier this year and has since put together another fine effort at The Players. The form is in solid-enough shape, and to Rose's credit, he continues to give himself opportunities in major championships with late final-round tee times in three of the last eight.

Rose's leads/co-leads at the Masters

After ...Leads / co-leads

18 holes

5

36 holes

3

54 holes

1

72 holes

2

Best without one

The last 11 years have seen at least one major championship crown a first-time major winner. In 2016, all four majors were won by first-timers: Danny Willett, Jimmy Walker, Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson. While the variability of golf seems to have tightened, a surprise major winner remains somewhat common.

J.J. Spaun had a great season in 2025, but he wasn't among the popular selections ahead of the U.S. Open. The same could be said for Brian Harman at The Open in 2023 and (to some extent) Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open that year. 

There are different levels to being "the best players without a major championship." Some, like Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley, have experienced long, successful careers. Others, such as Åberg and Gotterup, are just getting going. 

While the last three Masters champions have been major champions upon arrival at Augusta National, there's been a recent stretch -- Willett, Garcia, Reed -- where the opposite has been true.

Notable players without a major

GolferBest major finishBest Masters finish

Cameron Young

2nd (2022 Open)

T7 (2023)

Tommy Fleetwood

2nd (2x)

T3 (2024)

Russell Henley

T4 (2023 Masters)

T4 (2023)

Robert MacIntyre

2nd (2025 U.S. Open)

T12 (2021)

Ludvig Åberg

2nd (2024 Masters)

2nd (2024)

Min Woo Lee

T5 (2023 U.S. Open)

T14 (2022)

Si Woo Kim

T8 (2025 PGA)

T12 (2021)

Viktor Hovland

T2 (2023 PGA)

T7 (2023)

Sepp Straka

T2 (2023 Open)

T16 (2024)

Chris Gotterup

3rd (2025 Open)

N/A

Woodland's will

Gary Woodland's Masters exemption from his 2019 U.S. Open victory expired last season as he was only able to play in two majors in 2025. On the back of his win at the Houston Open, Woodland returns to Augusta National for the first time since 2024. He is sure to receive a warm welcome from the patrons, given what he has overcome.

Revealing to the world at The Players that he has been battling post-traumatic stress disorder following brain surgery, Woodland felt the stress fly off his shoulders, leading to a win a couple weeks later -- his first in nearly seven years. He remains one of the fastest players on the PGA Tour and pitched and chipped his ball beautifully at Memorial Park, so perhaps the 41-year-old can threaten the leaderboard. However, this week means much more than just being able to play golf and showing others what is possible.

"Obviously, your goal out here is to play in major championships," Woodland said after his win in Houston. "My exemption ran out a year ago. I haven't been in the other three majors from an exempt standpoint outside the U.S. Open from my win. Playing my way back in, I know this gets me in the Masters, I know it gets me in the PGA [Championship]. I'm looking forward to that, I can tell you that."

MIA: Tiger and Lefty

There has not been a Masters since 1994 that one of Woods or Mickelson has not played. Unfortunately, due to outside circumstances, that will be the case in 2026. The two legends have combined to win eight green jackets, so their absences will undoubtedly be felt. If you're looking for a hit of nostalgia, check out the final round of the 2001 Masters.

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