Some spots are clear as day, but others are not for the Three Lions
By James Benge Mar 31, 2026 at 7:36 pm ET • 8 min read 
Getty Images LONDON -- England's preparations for the World Cup hit an unwelcome though probably insignificant speed bump on Friday night as Japan claimed their first-ever win against the Three Lions at a fractious and rapidly emptying Wembley. Kaoru Mitoma seized on an error by Cole Palmer in midfield to earn Japan a winner England only really looked like overturning amid a flurry of late corners.
The absence of Harry Kane from the XI due to a knock in training only heightened the sense that this was an occasion for Thomas Tuchel to glance around his fringes to test out smash glass in case of emergency options and assess who might be a fourth or fifth center back, a third right back, the 26th man in the squad. Few in white could really complain if they didn't make the plane to North America this summer after an insipid attacking display, Phil Foden in particular struggling to make the most of his chance as a quasi-false nine.
Where England's front four seemed to be getting in each other's ways there was purpose and precision to the Japanese counters, Keito Nakamura's dynamic runs from left wing back giving all sorts of difficulties to Ben White, who was the subject of yet more boos from the Wembley crowd. Nakamura was to be the provider of the game's only goal, an elegantly placed pass to the edge of the area finding Mitoma to side-foot home.
Japan proved to be an impressive test for the Three Lions and there is reason to believe that Hajime Moriyasu's side can do even better than in Qatar 2022, when they reached the round of 16. This was a game to get carried away about Samurai Blue, who could add Takefusa Kubo and Wataru Endo among others to a team that already looked good enough to hold out against a heavily rotated England, and indeed for their fans to get carried away as players posed for selfies with the away corner at the final whistle.
Such were the changes made by Tuchel to the XI that England's overall performance belies much in the way of analysis. This really was a collection of individual performances to assess in the context of the 26-man squad to be named.
There is one possible exception to that, a pronounced commitment to embracing the Premier League's trend for firing corners into the mass of bodies in the six-yard box. When Harry Maguire and Dan Burn entered the fray late on the aerial bombardment almost proved to be too much for Japan to hold out against. As additions to the tactical oeuvre go, this is one England know from Gareth Southgate's time can be successful. It won't be enough to end the 60 years of hurt if everything outside set pieces is as underwhelming as it was tonight for England but it is fair to assume that these last-minute tryouts won't tell us much about how this team will fare at the World Cup.
Predicting England's squad
At a fair estimate somewhere in the region of 18 of Tuchel's squad will feel their places are locked in, subject to fitness. We'll come to the XI momentarily but you can reel off most of the starters with confidence and it's a good bet who'll back up a few of them as well. On the left wing, for instance, is one of Anthony Gordon or Marcus Rashford, the other his backup. That might be a horses-for-courses selection in the XI too.
With no more games left to play before naming his squad, Tuchel is in the happy position of not having to greatly worry about how his team plays, who plugs a problematic hole in the side. We're really debating around the edges and that is worth bearing in mind should the English public lose its collective mind over the presence of, say, Jordan Henderson or Harry Maguire in the squad. Neither profile as starters -- although England's dalliances with inswinging corners into the six yard box encourages at least a degree of Slabhead curiosity -- but they know what makes for a successful tournament team on and off the pitch. When you have space for 26 players, it's always worth carving out a spot or two for good tourists.
There are a few intriguing back ups to sort through. Reece James is the logical lock at right back. Behind him Tino Livramento feels like the logical option, all the more so after Ben White was given such an examination by Mitoma. It doesn't help that you can't be sure how the travelling England support will treat White given the boos that greeted him at Wembley but a bigger issue is that he looks rusty and it is hard to be confident at this point that he will shake it off at Arsenal. On the subject of the league leaders, Noni Madueke's explosive impact off the bench profiles very well for a tournament.
How you configure your cover for Kane is no less intriguing. There are two logical answers here. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the man in form, the archetypal big man you hurl on to mix things up a bit and this column's preferred option. Ollie Watkins may be less than the super sub of Euro 2024 but he's still at nine Premier League goals this season, none of them penalties, and 0.41 non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes. That's not bad. It's a lot better than Dominic Solanke, who seems to be the man in possession given his presence in the XI against Uruguay combined with Calvert-Lewin's early exit from the squad.
CBS Sports And here you were thinking Tuchel was England's most stats-curious coach ever.
Where it gets particularly interesting is the three bonus spots first implemented in the Qatar World Cup. Your 23 gives you a starter and reserve and three goalkeepers because reasons. I mean, really, imagine how much better this sport would be if a team gambled on taking one keeper to a tournament and he got injured/suspended in match one.
Anyway, we can safely assume that the sheer physical demands of a tournament in the North American summer mean Tuchel will want a fifth central midfielder. A straight choice between James Garner and Kobbie Mainoo is broadly one between solid possession and ball-recovery versus a youngster who is prepared to gamble a little bit more with the ball, something which proved to be relatively effective at Euro 2024. Still, Garner feels a bit more Tuchellian.
And that takes us to the good stuff. Two spots and at the very least the following will be up for consideration: Calvert-Lewin, Watkins, Jarrod Bowen, Eberechi Eze, Foden, Palmer and Harvey Barnes. Who knows what might be up for consideration if Jack Grealish or Danny Welbeck caught fire before the end of the season.
Palmer's proven impact off the bench for England might just be enough to make his case, the archetypal joker in the pack who might be able to blow up a game that is trending away from the Three Lions. Mark his as the 25th man. And then there was one. Tuchel is certainly an admirer of Eze and Bowen has been in every England squad this season. Both feel like the sort of players you could trust to professionally see out the third group game or a knockout tie already won. Bowen's introduction against Japan brought the spark to the attack that had been so lacking when Foden led the line.
What to make of the Manchester City man? If he went he might win his 50th cap at the World Cup, if so he would probably reach that landmark without the signature performance that anyone would expect of an international of his talent. And yet you can see why the idea of the Manchester City man as England's false nine is so persuasive. Why not exploit his technical quality in build up and ally that with his propensity for late runs into the area, his fine shooting from the edge of the box? If the rest of the center forward options aren't doing it for you, why not see what can be accomplished with a few weeks on the training field? After all, it's only the backup to the backup.
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Dean Henderson, James Trafford
Defenders: Reece James, Tino Livramento, Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Lewis Hall, Nico O'Reilly
Midfielders: Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice, Adam Wharton, Jordan Henderson, Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, James Garner, Cole Palmer
Forwards: Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke, Dominic Solanke, Phil Foden
What about the starting XI?
As with the squad as a whole, there's a lot of this that looks locked up. Pickford, Guehi and James are locks in defense. For tournament experience and technical quality you'd fancy John Stones to take the other center back spot if fit. Left back is one of those spots where Tuchel can't really go wrong but the orthodoxy of Hall feels a better fit for Tuchel.
Further up the flank Rashford and Gordon both offer the stretching runs in behind that Kane so missed when he dropped into deeper positions at Euro 2024. On tournament experience alone, Rashford feels the logical starter. Saka might be struggling for form but the right wing will be his until he loses it in an England shirt. Rice and Anderson are two of the best midfielders in the Premier League and probably the world. If that sounds like a reach for the latter, it doesn't feel like one when you've seen him quell a counter with one move then laser a pass 25 yards up the field an instant later.
As for the final spot, if the World Cup were in December one wonders if Tuchel might have been tempted to indulge the hot hand of Rogers. There is clearly something about Bellingham that doesn't quite speak to the England manager, even if he has been at pains to build bridges ever since those comments about his "repulsive" on-field behavior. Whatever anyone might think about his attitude, there is no disputing that the Real Madrid man has earned the right to carry himself however he wants. When fit he is one of the most talented footballers on the planet. There cannot be an England team that is better without Bellingham than with him.
Predicted England XI vs. Croatia: Pickford; James, Stones, Guehi, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Rashford; Kane
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