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What’s really behind America’s male recession?

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What’s really behind America’s male recession?
Opinion>Congress Blog>Congress Blog - Labor The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill What’s really behind America’s male recession? Comments: by John Mac Ghlionn, opinion contributor - 07/18/26 2:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied by John Mac Ghlionn, opinion contributor - 07/18/26 2:00 PM ET Comments: Link copied FILE - A hiring sign is displayed at a restaurant in Niles, Ill., Thursday, May 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File) FILE – A hiring sign is displayed at a restaurant in Niles, Ill., Thursday, May 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

For decades, economists have stared at the declining labor force participation rate among American men the way medieval villagers stared at an eclipse: bewildered, frightened and bereft of decent answers.

The numbers are troubling. In 1950, 86.4 percent of American men over age 20 were either working or looking for work. Today, that figure hovers below 70 percent. Generation after generation, millions of men have exited the labor force. Some are disabled and some retired early, but a growing number have simply removed themselves from the economic ecosystem altogether, trading the daily grind for the blissful nirvana of doing absolutely nothing.

The explanations offered over the years have ranged from plausible to absurd. Construction cratered after the housing crash. Automation destroyed blue-collar jobs. Globalization eviscerated manufacturing. Men stayed in school longer or became caretakers. Men lost skills demanded by a changing economy. It was a buffet of macro-disasters, a perfect storm of economic obsolescence that left millions of guys stranded on the couch.

Then came one of the more entertaining theories: video games. According to this narrative, vast numbers of young men were apparently abandoning work because they had become hopelessly addicted to increasingly sophisticated digital entertainment. Civilization itself, it seemed, was being defeated by better graphics cards and high-definition dopamine hits.

There was only one problem with this convenient scapegoat: Women now play video games at rates equal to men, with the gaming industry reporting near-parity among many age groups. Yet female labor force participation has remained far more stable. If Mario is responsible for workforce sabotage, he appears strangely selective in his victims, leaving the ladies to pay the mortgage while the guys spend their days hunting for digital mushrooms.

A recent paper by economists at the University of Connecticut offers a deeper, significantly darker explanation. Their argument isn’t that men stop working because today’s labor market looks weak, but that they learned a bitter truth much earlier. Essentially, the economic struggles boys witness during childhood permanently warp their belief in whether hard work is actually worth the effort.

If a boy grows up surrounded by unemployed men, underemployed men, discouraged men, and men whose wages barely improve despite years of backbreaking effort, he absorbs those lessons like a sponge. Even moving to a different state failed to erase the psychological scar. Men carried those low expectations with them like a hereditary disease. In other words, the labor force crisis may be less about jobs than belief.

That possibility is unsettling because beliefs are far harder to repair than payroll statistics. You can’t fix a broken spirit with a tax credit or a resume workshop. The findings also raise important cultural questions that economists typically avoid like the plague. For decades, many boys have been raised on messaging that portrays men as privileged oppressors, potential threats, or moronic bystanders to modern progress. Popular culture routinely depicts fathers as idiots, husbands as incompetent, and masculinity as something requiring immediate correction.

If expectations matter, as University of Connecticut professors Remy Levin and Daniela Vidart suggest, then it’s impossible to ignore the broader environment in which boys form views about their future value. A society that repeatedly tells young men they are unnecessary shouldn’t be shocked when some eventually conclude that they are.

Meanwhile, economic realities have reinforced the message. Earnings for non-college-educated men have fallen significantly over the past few decades, while earnings for college-educated men have risen. Status gaps widened. Wage gaps widened. Opportunities widened for some and narrowed for others. The result is a growing population of men who look upward and see a ladder whose lower rungs have been entirely chopped off.

Predictably, many on the far left will roll their eyes and offer mock sympathy for the “oppressors,” while many on the right will respond with nonsensical lectures about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and loving a country that doesn’t love your bank account back.

People need a reason to buy into the system — a baseline of respect and the tangible sense that today’s effort actually buys a better tomorrow. If childhood experience teaches that hard work produces little reward, labor force withdrawal becomes understandable, even if it remains destructive.

America’s rising male suicide rates, growing social isolation, declining marriage rates, and workforce withdrawal may not be separate phenomena but different symptoms of the same underlying condition: a crisis of expectation.

The video game theory was comforting because it implied a simple solution. Turn off the Xbox, put on some pants, and return to work. The new research points to something less convenient. It suggests that what matters most is not what men are doing at age 30, but what they learned about the value of work, purpose, and their place in society when they were 13.

John Mac Ghlionn is a writer and researcher who explores culture, society and the impact of technology on daily life.

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