Week 1 of the NFL season is bound to always bring forward some of the craziest overreactions in the Fantasy Football world. Just when you thought you aced a perfect draft, the tight end you drafted in the middle of Round 4 -- third off the board at his position -- drops a goose egg in your matchup. Making matters worse, you lose your Week 1 game by 0.4 points and said tight end scored zero Fantasy points despite his real team putting up 59 on the scoreboard.
If reading that felt too much like a personal anecdote to you, that's because it was. But does that mean we should just abandon ship on Colston Loveland, treat him like a wasted draft pick, and sell him off to the first manager who started any tight end who scored double digits in Week 1? Of course it doesn't. It also doesn't mean we should just forget about what happened. Week 1 can provide important context for how to move forward in our Fantasy Football seasons.
On Fantasy Football Today, Adam Aizer, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings dove into the Week 1 performances that alarmed Fantasy managers the most and brought back a fan favorite recurring segment -- the worry-o-meter!
Colston Loveland, TE, Bears
Jamey: 2% worried Heath: 21% worried
It's clear that no one on FFT is worried about Loveland right now. As Adam mentioned on the Beyond the Boxscore Monday show, Loveland still has an extremely high average route depth, the Bears are a run-heavy team, and Loveland has yet to be targeted on a designed screen, but the Chicago offensive upside trumps all of it. They will be scoring points this year and while Loveland might be a bit volatile, he'll be the benefactor more weeks than not.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Jamey: 21% worried Heath: 15% worried
Adam believes he doesn't look like the same player, and the average separation data backs that up. Per Fantasy Points data, only one eligible wide receiver created less separation on a per-snap basis than Rice in Week 1. Rice had just an 8.1-yard average route depth, and he is usually around 6 yards. This was the second-highest average route depth of his career. He played less in the slot (25% rate and he's usually around 40%). He was used differently, and a more downfield role doesn't fit his skill set. Rice only had two targets in the game. Heath points to the game script as a reason for Rice's slow start -- Mahomes had just 27 total pass attempts in the entire game. The Colts' defense looked terrible in Week 1, and Heath feels like this could be a get-right spot for him. Jamey points to Rice's slow offseason and looking sluggish in camp -- does he just need to work himself back into shape? That hints toward a buy-low window. Jamey posed the idea of moving Jalen Coker or Matthew Golden, plus an ancillary piece, to acquire Rice.
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins
Jamey: 34% worried Heath: 26% worried
Heath says that if we are drafting today, Achane is still a Round 2 pick, but Jamey is not so sure and views him more as a borderline Round 2/3 pick. Heath compared Achane's debut to Omarion Hampton and said it wasn't any more concerning. Jamey has greater concerns because this offense was supposed to be able to move the ball against the Raiders, and their schedule will get a lot more difficult. Adam pointed to the 2023 Breece Hall season as the best example of a running back on a terrible offense. The Jets averaged just 13.9 points per game, and Hall still finished as RB2 in PPR with 87 targets and 76 catches. The path to Achane returning value is through the passing game.
Travis Etienne, RB, Saints
Jamey: 15% worried Heath: 31% worried
Adam went in the middle as 23% worried about Etienne, whose New Orleans debut was disappointing to see the least. He played a lot more snaps than Kendre Miller, but they finished with the same number of carries, and Miller scored in the red zone. Jamey's devil's advocate was that Etienne did get involved in the passing game. This was a bit of a left turn from Kellen Moore's past as a coordinator. However, when Alvin Kamara returns, does that role shift to the veteran? Jamey is more worried in non-PPR than full PPR or half-point PPR. Heath still believes he's squarely in the RB2 mix moving forward.
Tony Pollard, RB, Titans
Jamey: 74% worried Heath: 89% worried
"We're in panic mode on Pollard," Adam said about Pollard, who plays Philadelphia, Houston and Baltimore in three of his next five games. The offensive line is in trouble, and the offense is failing to move the ball. However, we are not at the point of dropping him yet. He remains a bench stash for Adam, Jamey and Heath.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Jamey: 22% worried Heath: 35% worried
Nothing changed with Reed. He didn't play in two receiver sets, and he still saw a high number of his snaps in the slot (71%). Heath pointed to Matthew Golden seeing 12 targets and suggested that Reed is probably going to be dropped from your rosters eventually. Per Heath, the math doesn't math! Reed is playing 60% of snaps and not getting the volume needed to be a Fantasy asset.
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
Jamey: 15% with Ladd McConkey, 25% without him Heath: 42%
Herbert's yards per attempt plummeted by half once McConkey left the game. His upside depends on McConkey's health, and as of writing, the wide receiver is considered day-to-day. For now, quiet the panic meter, but Heath remains fairly high on his worry level because he was low on Herbert to begin with.
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