Sometimes it takes a while for people to buy back in once a player has let them down, but I think it's time to forgive Jac Caglianone for his slow start to the season.Caglianone was hitting just .236/.303/.382 by the end of May, an improvement from his disastrous rookie season but a far cry from the kind of production you actually want in your lineup. There were positive signs, to be sure – his xwOBA was a solid (if unspectacular) .333 and his average exit velocity was north of 94 mph – but Fantasy players were rightly unwilling to keep giving him the benefit of the doubt for what he might become.
But June is showing why he was worth waiting for. Caglianone entered play this weekend with three homers in the month, which actually matched his previous career best for a month, and he has lapped himself after this weekend. He went deep once each Friday and Saturday and then followed that up with a two-homer game Sunday to push his line for the month to .379/.468/.742.
This is by far the best stretch of Caglianone's career, and the underlying numbers back it up – he had a .399 xwOBA over the past month and is now up to a .361 mark for the season, a huge improvement over his rookie season and enough to make him a legitimately impactful player. Caglianone has cut the strikeout rate to 26% in June without sacrificing quality of contact, and the production is finally showing up along with it.
Caglianone is already 86% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues, so we'll have plenty more players to recommend adding across all league types in the rest of today's waiver-wire column, but I wanted to highlight Caglianone, who just needs to be rostered in all Fantasy formats moving forward. Because this is what it might look like now that he's figured it out.
Before we move on, I wanted to highlight another young player enjoying a little power binge. Sam Antonacci hasn't been quite as good as Caglianone lately and definitely doesn't have anywhere near the kind of upside Caglianone does, but he's showing us lately that there might be at least a little bit of pop in a bat that has been lacking pop – and only pop – so far.
After hitting just a single inside-the-park homer in his first two months in the bigs, Antonacci hit his third over the fence in his past seven games Saturday. And it may not be a total fluke, as Antonacci's average exit velocity has spiked to 90.1 mph so far in June, up from 86.3 mph in May. And he's done that without sacrificing contact skills, as he still has just a 15% strikeout rate so far to go along with his .321/.433/.571 slash line for the month. That'll play.
I don't think Antonacci is suddenly a big power threat, of course, but I do think we're at the point where he simply deserves more credit for a well-rounded skill set than the Fantasy community has given him so far as seen by his 61% roster rate. Through his first 58 MLB games he's sitting on a .307 expected batting average and .455 expected slugging percentage with nine steals and 36 runs – a 100-run, 25-steal pace. If that came single-digit homer upside, well, it's still a profile that looks an awful lot like Nico Hoerner's, who has been a top-100 player for several years. If Antonacci can be more like a 15-homer guy like we're seeing flashes of lately, he could be even better.
We're not there yet. The sample size here is way too small for a guy who had just seven homers in 153 career minor-league games. But there's more juice in this bat than you think, and Antonacci deserves to be rostered in pretty much all Fantasy formats and leagues, either as a second baseman or outfielder.
Here's who else we're looking to add ahead of Week 14:
Week 14 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Francisco Alvarez, Mets (40%)
The power hasn't been there, but that'll come for Alvarez, I'm confident in that. In the meantime, he's making enough contact to run a manageable 24% strikeout rate and .313 average since coming off the IL. Alvarez still has a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and career-best 15.6% barrel rate for the season, hence my belief that the power will be there in the end. He continues to show top-12 catcher upside despite an uneven, injury-marred season to date. At the very least, he should be rostered in all two-catcher leagues.
Deep league option: Agustin Ramirez, Marlins (29%) – This one is speculative, but the Marlins had to place Liam Hicks on the IL Sunday, leaving them with just Joe Mack on the roster at catcher. Mack is a decent add in two-catcher leagues himself now that he's starting to hit a bit, but Ramirez is clearly the higher-upside option if he gets the call. That's no guarantee, as he hasn't exactly set the world on fire down at Triple-A. But the Marlins may not have any choice but to call him up given the lack of other catcher options in the high minors.
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees (59%)
The equation for Goldschmidt is simple: Hold your own against righties and demolish lefties. That's exactly what he's doing right now, putting up a .298 wOBA against righties and .520 mark against lefties, with the underlying numbers to match both sides. It leaves him with a slim margin for error when the schedule is especially righty heavy, but I think he's a viable hot-hand play in all leagues right now given the playing time he's getting on the injury-plagued Yankees roster.
Deep league option: Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (22%) – There aren't a ton of great options for first base, so let's go with Manzardo, who is at least hitting better lately, with a .292/.393/.604 line since the start of June. He sits against lefties despite doing pretty well against them, which limits his upside, but if you're just looking for a bit of cheap pop at a corner infield spot, Manzardo can provide it.
Second Base
Deep league option: Christian Moore, Angels (9%) – Moore hasn't done anything of note in a couple of games since his promotion, but he remains an intriguing young talent coming off a run at Triple-A where he hit .333/.468/,.585 with dramatically improved plate discipline. He's going to play a bit of outfield and second for the Angels and has the power and speed upside to play his way into a regular role if he can keep the strikeouts low enough. Seven K's in nine plate appearances so far won't do it, obviously, so he'll need to improve quickly.
Third Base
Royce Lewis, Twins (66%)
Maybe the trip back to Triple-A got him right. Lewis added a more pronounced leg-kick to his batting stance while down at Triple-A and has added more than 2 mph to his swing speed since his return, leading to a higher average exit velocity and lower whiff rate than he had prior to his trip down. Lewis' career has been defined by hot and cold streaks and this might just be another hot streak, destined to fade as pitchers catch up to the changes he's made. But he's hitting .275/.333/.569 with four homers in 13 games since coming back and has to be taken seriously yet again.
Deep league option: Matt Shaw, Cubs (20%) – Shaw is the super-utility man for the Cubs, playing pretty much anywhere an opportunity arises, and with Moises Ballesteros sent back to Triple-A, those opportunities should be more consistent moving forward. That probably won't lead to elite production, but it should have some value in Roto leagues – Shaw is hitting .256 with 15 homers and nine steals since last year's All-Star break, covering 336 PA. With 2B, 3B, and OF eligibility, Shaw is a nice player to have around.
Shortstop
Nasim Nunez, Nationals (30%)
Nunez is a single-category specialist, and he's one of the very best in baseball at stealing bases, sporting 28 of them through his first 72 games. He's given us very little else beyond that so far, but that's changing a little bit lately, with Nunez hitting .404 since the start of June. That won't last, but as a hot-hand player who can help you make up a lot of ground all at once in steals, he's a pretty interesting add right now.
Deep league option: Taylor Walls, Rays (2%) – Walls brings even less all-around upside to the table than Nunez, but the problem with shortstop is, there just aren't many good options beyond the elite players here. Walls is doing two things well right now: Getting on base (.348 OBP in June) and stealing bases when he gets there (six in June). If you need a little steals boost, hope he can keep hot in that category for a little while longer.
Outfield
Just a note here: There are a lot of interesting outfielders out there right now, but nobody that looks like an absolute can't-miss contributor (outside of maybe Antonacci, who is eligible there). We're looking at intriguing, but flawed players in one way or another right now.
Cole Carrigg, Rockies (53%)
Carrigg has slowed down a bit over the past week or so, but he's still hitting .237/.356/.553 since making it to the majors. I think the key is going to be whether he starts running more, because if he does, the whole skill set should look pretty good; if not, it might be hard to get excited about a guy who may not hit for much over-the-fence power or batting average – and I also have some concerns about whether his playing time will be at risk when Mickey Moniak returns from his injury, which should be this week. But Carrigg has been good enough and has an interesting enough skill set to be worth an add in categories leagues.
Dylan Crews, Nationals (38%)
Very slowly, and not at all surely, Crews is starting to look like he might be figuring it out. The overall production still leaves a lot to be desired, including just a .194/.231/.419 line in the month of June to date. But that includes just a .159 BABIP, which hides the very real improvements we've seen from Crews of late. He has bumped his average exit velocity up to a legitimately strong 90.9 mph mark this season, leading to a career-best .399 expected wOBA on contact to go along with a career-best 17.9% strikeout rate. Crews still doesn't hit the ball to the right parts of the field to maximize his talent, but his .371 xwOBA in June suggests we should be getting a lot more out of him than we are. It's by no means a sure thing, but the upside is starting to peak through, including four homers in his past 14 games.
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (23%)
Nootbaar's early success may not be a fluke. We've been interested in the skill set for years, and what we might be seeing right now is just what he looks like when he's healthy, something he's rarely been for long. He is hitting .280/.362/.460 through his first 15 games, combining his usually strong plate discipline with some of the best quality of contact we've ever seen from him. Nootbaar is swinging the bat with more authority, and it's leading to a 94.9 mph average exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate so far, elite marks. The Cardinals will probably keep giving Nootbaar regular time off, given his injury history, which will limit the upside, but right now, he's looking like a very solid contributor in any format.
Joshua Baez, Cardinals (38%)
There are defensive questions that might be the only reason Baez hasn't been called up yet. He's an iffy defender in center field, and that's really the only spot the Cardinals have available right now. However, with the Cardinals playing surprisingly competitive ball so far, I think we'll see Baez before long – he hit four homers in a game earlier this week and has gotten that strikeout rate below 30% after some early concerns. There just doesn't seem to much left for him to prove down in Triple-A and should represent an upgrade over Nathan Church (even though Church hasn't been bad himself).
Spencer Jones, Yankees (39%)
Jones is playing well enough in this latest stint in the majors to think he's going to get the chance to stick around at least until the Yankees get somewhat healthy, as he's hitting .258/.378/.516 since his return in early June. Given the immense skill set Jones possesses, just seeing him holding his own is reason to have hope, even if it hasn't exactly been hugely impactful for Fantasy with just two homers and no steals so far. But that 38% strikeout rate is glaring and is likely going to end up holding him back in the long run. But there's obvious upside here with Jones' plus-plus power and plus athleticism.
Starting Pitcher
We've been waiting for Jump to put together a truly great start, and he finally did it this week, striking out seven over seven one-hit, shutout innings against the Angels. The strikeout rate has been surprisingly pedestrian for Jump so far, but he's done a good job limiting walks and hard contact, and there are four different pitches in his arsenal that should miss bats well enough, at least. Jump's home park will present some complications, but the upside looks strong enough to be chasing in spite of that.
Sean Burke, White Sox (37%)
Up until his most recent start, really, I've never been especially impressed with or interested in Burke, even when things were going well. But he just shut down the Yankees for one run over 7.1 innings while striking out eight, and he looked like a completely different pitcher, sitting 1.7 mph up from his season average and hitting 99.3 mph on his final pitch of the night. Burke generated 20 whiffs on the night, including nine with his four-seamer, which is just not something we see very often from him. It might have just been a one-start fluke – in fact, I'd probably bet on that. But with the Jose Ramirez-less Guardians on the schedule for Burke this week, I'm willing to stick him in my lineup to see if it was real.
Walbert Urena, Angels (65%)
Urena's got a really good changeup and he throws his fastballs very hard, which leads to plenty of weak contact, often on the ground. The problem is, he hasn't missed as many bats as you'd think given how he looks via the eye test, but he's had a few starts where you can see the path. That includes Saturday's start, where he generated 17 whiffs on 90 pitches, including seven with his changeup and three with the sweeper. The fastballs typically don't miss bats, but he needs to lean on them enough to keep walks at bay, and thankfully, they do at least tend to generate weak contact. But if the changeup and sweeper can miss bats like that, it becomes easy to dream of what Urena could become. Despite a sub-3.00 ERA, I'm still not at the point where I fully trust Urena every time out, but I think he's a decent option to add with matchups against the A's in L.A. and then the Mariners in Seattle coming up.
Tatsuya Imai, Astros (43%)
Now Imai, I definitely don't trust. After all, he sandwiched his two most interesting starts as a big-leaguer with one where he gave up five runs without even getting out of the first inning. How could you trust him? On the other hand, we're starting to see real signs of upside from Imai, who struck out eight in five innings three starts ago and then 11 in six innings Friday. He leaned heavily on that freaking slider, as he often does, and it generated 14 swinging strikes on 25 swings, an absurdly dominant showing. However, he also threw 15 changeups, a career-high (he usually throws them about 3% of the time) and it was super effective, generating four whiffs of its own. The command still seems to be a drag on Imai's overall profile, but he's finding ways to be effective without it, and the bat-missing ceiling is starting to show up. And his next two matchups are against the Tigers (in Detroit) and the Twins, two beatable matchups.
Relief Pitcher
Joey Cantillo, Guardians (49%)
Just when it looked like we might be done with Cantillo he comes out with arguably the best two-start stretch of his season. That included a nine-strikeout outing against the Astros Saturday that saw him toss eight innings with just one run allowed while generating 20 swinging strikes on 50 swings. And it wasn't just the changeup dominating for Cantillo as it usually is, as he sat 1.1 mph up on three of his four pitches and absolutely carved the Astros up with his curveball, generating 13 whiffs with that pitch. It's just one start, but if that could join with the changeup to give Cantillo two viable swing-and-miss pitches, there would suddenly be something to get excited about. For now, let's view him as a viable streamer in points leagues as a SPaRP.
Yoendrys Gomez, Twins (38%)
Gomez has three of the past four Twins saves and has been mostly saved for the ninth inning lately. There probably won't be a ton of save opportunities for this team moving forward, but Gomez looks like he's in line to get the majority of them and has been very effective in that role so far. I don't think he needs to be rostered in most points leagues, but Gomez should be rostered in any leagues with a saves category.
Elvis Alvarado, Athletics (27%)
It looks like the A's are leaning in Alvarado's direction lately, as he has two of the team's last three saves and worked the ninth and 10th of a tie game Friday despite blowing a lead in his previous outing. His 5.00 ERA is pretty underwhelming, though more of that damage came in one four-run outing back in April that earned him a demotion – in six appearances since returning from Triple-A he has 13 strikeouts and has allowed just one run over 8.1 innings, and it surely doesn't hurt that his velocity is up over 1 mph since his first stint back in April.
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