Wednesday briefing: Where Starmer stands after another precarious day in Parliament

In today’s newsletter: As Labour braces for heavy local election losses, senior figures ​are signalling unease and​ morale ​is sinking​, can the prime minister hang on?

Good morning. Keir Starmer is on thin ice. The prime minister survived a bruising Tuesday in the Commons as MPs continued to scrutinise his account of the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Almost all Labour MPs backed Starmer in a key vote on whether he should face an inquiry into whether he misled parliament.

But in Westminster there is a growing feeling that the Labour leader is on borrowed time. Next week’s local and parliamentary elections, which Starmer will face as one of the most unpopular prime ministers since records began, is likely to see public dissatisfaction crystallise. “He’s in last chance saloon,” one minister said after last night’s vote.

US | King Charles has extolled the importance of Britain’s “special relationship” with the US in a speech to Congress that made pointed reference to the importance of Nato, the defence of Ukraine and the climate crisis.

Middle East | Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.

Oil | The UAE has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history.

UK news | The chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters.

Women’s rights | Fifa has given permission for Afghan Women United – a squad composed of refugees scattered around the world in Australia, the Middle East and Europe – to represent Afghanistan in official competitions without requiring the approval of the Taliban, which banned the team.