Virginia vs. Wright State odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers and revealed its college basketball picks for this NCAA Tournament 2026 first-round matchup on Friday

The 14th-seeded Wright State Raiders will face the third-seeded Virginia Cavaliers in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region on Friday. Wright State is coming off a 66-63 win over Detroit for the Horizon League Tournament championship on March 10, while UVA dropped a 74-70 decision to Duke in the ACC Tournament championship game on Saturday. The Raiders (23-11), who have won five in a row, won the Horizon League regular season title as well with a 15-5 conference mark. The ninth-ranked Cavaliers (29-5), who have won 13 of 15, finished second in the ACC standings at 15-3.

Tipoff from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia is set for 1:50 p.m. ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. Virginia is an 18.5-point favorite in the latest Virginia vs. Wright State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5. Before making any Wright State vs. Virginia picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Wright State vs. Virginia 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for UVA vs. Wright State:

Wright State vs. Virginia spread:    

Virginia -18.5

Wright State vs. Virginia over/under:    

145.5 points

Wright State vs. Virginia money line:    

Virginia -3125, Wright State +1263

Wright State vs. Virginia picks:    

Wright State vs. Virginia TV:

TBS

Top Wright State vs. Virginia predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Wright State vs. Virginia, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (145.5 points). The Over has hit in four of the last eight Wright State games, and in each of the last four Virginia games. Wright State is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Virginia, meanwhile, is 5-5 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Raiders to have three players score 10.2 points or more, including Michael Cooper, who is projected to score 11.4 points. The Cavaliers are projected to have five players score in double figures, led by Thijs De Ridder, who is projected to score 16.9 points. The model is projecting 153 combined points as the Over clears in 71% of simulations. 

How to make Virginia vs. Wright State picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Virginia vs. Wright State, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.