SportsLine's Kyle Marley reveals his picks for the UFC Fight Night fight card from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas in the UFC event on Paramount+, featuring 10th-ranked Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan in a lightweight matchup
By Daniel Kohn Apr 3, 2026 at 9:38 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images Tenth-ranked Renato Moicano battles Chris Duncan in a lightweight match in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan on Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The preliminaries are set to begin at around 5 p.m. ET, with the main card at approximately 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Moicano is coming off back-to-back losses, including a unanimous decision defeat to Beneil Dariush on June 28, 2025. Duncan, meanwhile, has won four in a row, including a submission victory over Terrance McKinney at UFC 323 on Dec. 6, 2025.
Duncan is a -192 favorite (risk $192 to win $100), while Moicano comes back at +160 in the latest UFC Fight Night odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The co-main event features a women's strawweight bout between third-ranked Virna Jandiroba (+100) and seventh-ranked Tabitha Ricci (-120). Before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Kyle Marley.
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Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $10,000, and since May 2018, he has returned well over $21,000. The accomplished MMA analyst has provided consistent winners for SportsLine members for the past five years. His accomplishments include hitting five consecutive main-event underdog winners in 2020 following the UFC's brief pause in action because of the pandemic. Anyone who has followed Marley's UFC betting advice could be way up.
Now, Marley has studied Chris Duncan vs. Renato Moicano from every angle and revealed his top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Moicano vs. Duncan preview
Moicano, 36, has been competing in MMA since making his debut at Jungle Fight 18 in May 2010. At Jungle Fight 71, he defeated Ismael Bonfim by submission to earn the interim Jungle Fight Featherweight Championship. He won eight of his first nine fights, with the one non-win a draw before joining UFC. He went on to win his first three UFC fights before suffering his first professional loss to Brian Ortega by submission at UFC 214.
For his career, Moicano is 20-7-1. He has two wins by knockout, 10 by submission and eight by decision. He is a one-time Fight of the Night and one-time Performance of the Night winner. He was the 2024 Fan's Choice Comeback Winner of the Year against Jalin Turner, earning a second-round TKO at UFC 300. Check out SportsLine to see Marley's picks and analysis.
Duncan, 32, turned professional in 2018. He made his debut by defeating Pietro Colonna by submission at Unity FC 1 on April 7, 2018. He later competed in the Ultimate Fight League and in Dana White's Contender Series. On Aug. 2, 2022, he knocked out Charlie Campbell at 1:43 of the first round at Dana White's Contender Series 48, to earn a UFC contract.
In 17 career matches, Duncan is 15-2. He has seven wins by knockout, four by submission and four by decision. He is also a one-time Fight of the Night and one-time Performance of the Night winner. He was a 2025 MMA Fighting third-team all-star. You can only see Marley's picks and analysis at SportsLine.
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UFC Fight Night predictions
One of of Marley's UFC Fight Night picks: He is backing Jose Delano (-355) via submission in a featherweight bout on the preliminary card.
"Give me Delano here," Marley told SportsLine. "I like him to be the better and faster striker. He is also going to be throwing higher volume. (Robert) Ruchala isn't a bad striker, but he should be looking to wrestle in this matchup. I don't think it will be enough, and I'll take Delano by TKO or UD." See who else to back here.
How to make UFC Fight Night picks
Marley also has strong picks for Moicano vs. Duncan and other bouts on the UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan card. He's also backing a fighter who is "the better and more dangerous striker," to emerge with a big victory. He's sharing who it is only at SportsLine.
Who wins Moicano vs. Duncan, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
UFC Fight Night main fight card, odds
See picks at SportsLine. (Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)
Chris Duncan (-192) vs. Renato Moicano (+160) Tabitha Ricci (-120) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+100) Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1800) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+1000) Rafael Estrevam (+124) vs. Ethyn Ewing (-148) Tommy McMillen (-1600) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+900)
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