SportsLine's Kyle Marley reveals his picks for the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Paramount+, featuring Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa in a featherweight matchup
By Daniel Kohn May 15, 2026 at 9:21 am ET • 4 min read 
Imagn Images Ranked featherweights clash when seventh-ranked Arnold Allen battles 12th-ranked Melquizael Costa in the main event at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The five-bout main card is scheduled to start at approximately 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Allen is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jean Silva at UFC 324 this past January. Costa, meanwhile, won by knockout over Da Ige in his last match at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez this past February.
In the main event, Allen is the -188 favorite (risk $188 to win $100) in the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Before locking in any UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa picks, make sure you see the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Kyle Marley.
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Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $10,000, and since May 2018, he has returned well over $21,000. The accomplished MMA analyst has provided consistent winners for SportsLine members for the past five years. His accomplishments include hitting five consecutive main-event underdog winners in 2020 following the UFC's brief pause in action because of the pandemic. Anyone who has followed Marley's UFC betting picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, Marley has studied Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa from every angle and revealed his top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa preview
Allen, 32, is a three-time Performance of the Night honoree. He had posted the third-longest win streak in UFC featherweight division history from 2015 to 2022. In 24 career matches, he has posted a 20-4 record. He has seven wins by knockout, four by submission and nine by decision.
He began his MMA career in April 2012 with a knockout win over Nathan Greyson at Ultimate Challenge MMA 27 in London. Allen went on to post a 9-1 record, before joining UFC in 2015. He won his first 10 UFC fights, but since then has lost three of four. Allen is a one-time M4TC lightweight champion. Check out SportsLine to see Marley's picks and analysis.
Costa, 29, is a former Predator FC featherweight champion. In 33 career matches, he has posted a 26-7 mark. He has nine wins by knockout, eight by submission and nine by decision. In 2025, he earned the fifth-ranked Fight of the Year against Dan Ige.
Among his many other accomplishments include one-time Performance of the Night and one-time Fight of the Night. He is tied with nine other fighters for the most submission wins in UFC featherweight history with two. He is also tied with three other fighters for the sixth-longest win streak in UFC featherweight history at seven. You can only see Marley's picks and analysis at SportsLine.
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa predictions
One of of Marley's UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa picks: He is backing backing Nicolle Caliari (-225) to win via unanimous decision against Shauna Bannon (+172) in a women's strawweight bout on the main UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card.
"Bannon should be the better striker at range here, but Caliari should have the wrestling/grappling edge," Marley said. "I do think Caliari will land a couple of takedowns in this matchup, and I'll take her to keep enough control time to win two rounds and get her hand raised." See who else to back here.
How to make UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa picks
Marley also has strong picks for Allen vs. Costa and other bouts on the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card. He's also backing a fighter who is "the better overall athlete," to emerge with a big victory. He's sharing who it is only at SportsLine.
Who wins Allen vs. Costa, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
UFC Fight Night main fight card, odds
See picks at SportsLine. (Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)
Arnold Allen (-188) vs. Melquizael Costa (+146) Doo Ho Choi (+118) vs. Daniel Santos (-150) Malcolm Wellmaker (-280) vs. Juan Diaz (+210) Modestas Bukauskas (-136) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+106) Timmy Cuamba (+134) vs. Benardo Sopaj (-172)
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